No More Loser Points

The NHL General Managers meetings just concluded in Boca Raton, Florida and among the proposed changes is yet another modification to overtime. Based on a framework adopted by the AHL this season, where the OT period is increased to 7 minutes and teams are reduced to 3-on-3 after 4 OT minutes, NHL GMs discussed implementing (in 2015-2016) some type of 3-on-3 OT play but the logistics of that have yet to be worked out.

In theory, having fewer players on the ice during overtime will open up more space and allow for more flashy scoring opportunities created by what will likely be an increase in odd-man rushes. There’s no denying that a 2-on-1 in the dying seconds of an overtime period wouldn’t be exciting, but I’m not convinced that reducing the number of players on the ice is going to increase the number of goals scored. In many (though not all) odd-man rush situations, goalie in the net is just as responsible for where the puck ends up as the skaters are, and a solid #1 goalie will stop that puck more often than he won’t. Instead of reducing the number of players on the ice for the overtime period, maybe the NHL needs to do something even more radical: get rid of the loser point.

As it stands right now, teams get two points for win, and one for either an overtime or shoot-out loss. Over 10 games, that doesn’t make much difference in the standings, but over an 82-game schedule, those loser points can alter standings in an appreciable way. We’re all very familiar with how detrimental loser points can be, as the Oilers have earned enough that they are currently in 28th place and are playing themselves JUST out of McEichel territory. This wouldn’t be terrible if we could be certain that MacT isn’t going to take Lawson Crouse with the 3rd overall pick; since we don’t know what goes on in his head, we could definitely stand to have no loser points instead of the 13 we’ve “earned”.

With the help of my good friends at Microsoft, I did some math and figured a few things out. First of all, I’m terrible with Excel on a level my Education Technology professor would be ashamed of. Second, I should have sorted my data by conference before I did any fancy math. Third, and probably most important, eliminating the point for an OTL doesn’t pull any teams out of the top 5 OR bottom 5, but it tends to normalize points totals for teams fighting for wild card positions. The biggest difference, as of this morning, was actually with Vancouver. The Canucks have 84 points, but only 4 OTLs; this puts them 13th overall. If we change those OTLs to Ls, and award no points, they only lose 4 points and actually rise to 9th place overall). Eliminating the loser point only affects the playoff hopes of the LA Kings and the Calgary Flames (and for once, I’d support the Flames being in and the Kings being out).

After figuring out how to sort an entire table of data based on one column, here’s what I learned:

• I took the standings as they are, and sorted teams that way. Anaheim is in first with 97 points, Buffalo last with 47 points.
• If we eliminate the point for OTLs, Anaheim remains first, Vancouver jumps 5 spots and Edmonton drops from 28th to 30th.
• If, as in every other major North American pro league, we eliminate points altogether and rank teams based on win % (wins/games played) there’s some movement in the standings. The top 8 remains the same, Calgary makes it in while LA is on the outside, and the Oilers are (again) at the bottom.
• Eliminating OTLs also gives a more accurate picture of how many games a team has lost; I’m of the belief that a team shouldn’t be rewarded for losing games, no matter how close it was. (The Oilers are, again, in 30th based on their 19 wins in 71 games. Buffalo, with one more win, stays out of the basement on this stat as well.)

(The standings are slightly different than what I found on NHL.com, because I didn’t use any tie-breaks, just straight Wins-Losses-OTLs).

The math isn’t perfect (because of my lack of tiebreaks AND the data being leaguewide instead of based on conference play), and eliminating the loser point isn’t necessarily an option at the moment. But awarding points for anything other than a victory skews the results and leaves teams out of the playoff picture because other teams had more extra-time losses. If the regulation loss doesn’t count as a point, neither should the losses in extra time. The overall impact of this change wouldn’t be huge on a leaguewide basis, and especially not when it comes to the teams at the top of the table. For Oilers fans, however, eliminating the loser points for OT and shootout losses would be the best solution if for no other reason than it would put us squarely (and alone) in last place and primed for McEichel.