When I began drawing up my list of off-season targets (coming in mid-April), I spent hours debating which defenders Edmonton should pursue via free agency and via trade this summer. According to my calculations, the Oilers need a top-pairing and a second-pairing defender before next season begins. At least one of those guys needs to be brought in through trade.
I’ve named a few guys to target via trade, namely Dion Phaneuf and Brent Seabrook, and a few UFA’s, like Paul Martin and Mike Green. One thing I didn’t factor in? RFA’s. Could an offer-sheet, like the one offered to Dustin Penner many moons ago, be in the cards? If so, for who?
Before I dive into things, let me say this, I don’t think an offer-sheet is a good idea, especially for this organization. Not only would Edmonton have to pay a hefty sum, but they would also be destroying at least one draft in terms of picks. They’ve done this before, and while Penner was a good player, giving up those draft picks looks like a huge mistake right about now.
Anyway, CSNNE’s Joe Haggerty, who covers the Boston Bruins, wrote a piece on Tuesday morning explaining why he believes re-signing the young blue-liner before the month of July is the team’s best option, saying that an offer-sheet could completely cripple the Bruins salary cap position.
One of the teams he named? The Edmonton Oilers.
Listen, Dougie Hamilton is a special player, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever. Hamilton is going to be a stud defender, and will take over for Zdeno Chara as the boss of the Boston blue. Every good Bruins team has had a dominating defender, going all the way back to Bobby Orr. Hamilton is in line to be the next guy.
He’s a good puck-moving defender, he’s strong in his own zone, and he faces the top opposition each night while playing over 20 minutes for the Bruins in just his THIRD professional season. This guy is the real deal. He’s quick, he’s smart, and he posts a ton of points, in fact he has 42 currently.
Hamilton is the best blue-liner currently on a Bruins team poised to go to the Stanley Cup playoffs for the eighth season in a row this year. Dougie Hamilton is, simply put, a top-pairing defender at the NHL-level.
Should he be a target for Edmonton? Absolutely, he’s exactly the kind of defender they could use, and according to Haggerty, they understand that. In the piece, Haggerty mentions that Edmonton “covets” Hamilton in rumored trade talks surrounding franchise F Taylor Hall. The fit, and the interest, is there which is half the battle.
What about a contract? What could Edmonton offer Hamilton that would both entice him to sign with the Oilers AND prevent the Bruins from being able to match? Honestly, it’s likely somewhere in the six year range with a total dollar cost somewhere around $39 M, which equals out to about $6.5 M per season. That would make Hamilton the highest paid Oiler, and would put the Bruins in a VERY tight spot.
Here’s the deal, with the high price tag comes a very high compensation rate. The Oilers would owe the Bruins their first, second and third round picks in the 2016 NHL entry draft, which is pretty much every impact pick. That’s going a full year without adding any real prospects of note to the system, that’s tough to sell.
The Oilers are a team that NEEDS to have a solid prospect base, they need to have that depth, those cheap contract options. Without their top three choices in 2016, Edmonton would be essentially giving up on a year at the draft, which is a strategy that could easily bite them in the ass down the line.
On top of that, it likely kills the relationship between the Bruins and Oilers as future trade partners, just like the Dustin Penner offer-sheet killed the relationship between the Ducks and Oilers back in the summer of 2007. The Oilers need all avenues for player acquisition open, and basically cutting the line of communication with a team is a terrible idea.
Listen, I know Dougie Hamilton is a great player, I think he is going to be special. That said, I would not give up $6.5 M per season in cap space, three prime draft picks and a relationship with another NHL up just to get him. There are other, more realistic options, out there this summer that can help Edmonton just as much, if not more, next season and beyond.
Haggerty has every reason to be nervous with a potential offer-sheet looming, but I just don’t think it should be the Oilers, and in fact I don’t think it will be the Oilers. It’s interesting to ponder, but let’s be honest here, it’s not going to happen. Good food for thought, and a creative possibility, but highly unlikely at best.
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