The Edmonton Oilers opened up a second buy-out window on Monday when they elected to take RFA D Justin Schultz to arbitration. Regardless of what happens from here on out, Edmonton will get another window to buy-out players three days after Schultz is settled.
A Schultz settlement can happen in arbitration, or before hand by the two parties negotiating a contract. My bet? The Oilers and Schultz agree on another one-year deal before the arbitration date hits. Not only will this help the Oilers avoid an awkward date with Schultz, but it will also open the buy-out window a little earlier.
Who are the options to be bought out? Let’s have a look, shall we?
Nikita Nikitin:
This is the obvious one. Nikitin has simply not lived up to his $4.5 million per year price tag, and has not lived up to the billing of ‘top-four’ defender from Craig MacTavish. He showed up to camp out of shape last season, was injured for a large portion of the season, and was a non-factor when he played.
He struggled to a degree moving the puck, provided minimal offense, was too slow, and made mistakes that an inexperienced defender would. At this point, Nikitin is nothing more than a number five or six defender, which Edmonton has a plethora of.
Honestly, looking at the depth chart currently, I have a hard time considering Nikitin one of the six best defenders on the team.
A buy-out would cost the Oilers $1.5 million on the cap for each of the next two seasons.
Andrew Ference:
The captain has been underwhelming in his first two seasons in Edmonton. He’s a smaller guy, but he’s an absolute warrior who plays a tough and physical game. His playing style is simple, Ference is a shut-down defender who can play on the penalty kill.
He’s not a puck-mover by any means, and doesn’t provide much offense, but he’s a solid depth option as a shut-down guy. With lesser opposition and less ice time this coming season, I think Ference could still be a useful piece. He’s a third-pairing defender at this level, and should be used that way.
That being said, he’s an expensive option for the next two years, clocking in a $3.25 million per. Edmonton might be looking to shed that contract to free up some cap space.
Buying Ference out is a little complicated. Jonathan Willis of OilersNation does a nice job of framing the issue here. Short version, Edmonton would be on the hook for a $670,000 cap hit this year, and a $1.17 million cap hit for the three seasons after that. That’s paying Ference for four more years.
Ben Scrivens:
After trading for Anders Nilsson on Monday, Ben Scrivens has become an option to move out of town. His .890 SV% last year was one of the worst in the NHL, he was not good for the Oilers. He’s a bounce back candidate, but he clearly does not have the trust of the new management group in Oil Country.
It’s unclear if Scrivens is actually eligible to be bought out, his cap hit might not be large enough, but if he is eligible, he’s a strong candidate. If my math is correct, Edmonton would carry around $800,000 in dead cap for the next two seasons. Again, I think those are the numbers, but that could be off by a bit.
Teddy Purcell:
I doubt it happens, but Purcell is a popular buy-out option among Oiler fans. He’s a good NHL player, but far from perfect. He’s a 30-45 point per year guy, but he doesn’t play physical and he is a bit slower than I’d like. That said, I still think Purcell can help the Oilers next season, especially if it’s as a third-line depth player.
His buy-out would cost Edmonton around $1.5 million per year for the next two seasons, just like Nikitin would. Personally, I don’t see the value in paying Purcell to not play.
The Course Of Action:
The Oilers are allowed three buy-outs in the second window throughout the course of the CBA, so they better be careful. The good news for Peter Chiarelli? The organization has yet to use one of these since the new CBA was brought into effect in the winter of 2013.
Edmonton needs to shed a body on the back-end, so I’d imagine one of the two defenders are going to be targeted here. Ference would have to be paid for four seasons, and I just don’t see that as a wise move. McDavid’s entry-level deal ends in three years.
The most likely situation? Edmonton tries to trade a bad contract or two, but if they can’t, they buy-out Nikitin and take the cap penalty for the next two seasons. Honestly, that’s the course that I’d go with as well.
Also, if Chiarelli is hellbent on moving Scrivens, I’d look to buy him out as well if a trade can’t be consummated. That said, I’d be willing to bet that someone takes a risk on the professor, maybe a team like Boston.
Regardless, if no trades happen, I think it’s a lock that Nikitin gets bought out, while it’s also possible that Ben Scrivens joins him.
It might be July, but there are still tough decisions to be made in Edmonton.
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