Last season was probably as tough for fans of the Edmonton Oilers as any in recent memory. It was supposed to be the year the team turned the corner and became competitive. New GM. New hotshot young coach and yet another top ten pick (a defenseman! Booyah!). The season turned sour quickly and the upward momentum was never found.
Another off-season and hope re-surfaced again. Two player signings who were advanced stat darlings. The hire of a hotshot advanced stats blogger. Snowpants moved out for a winger with size. Buchberger and Smith off the bench and a new tandem in net to boot! Oh and wait, yet another lottery pick (this time a centre with size! Huzzah!) Certainly this would be the year. So far the team’s record is basically no better than last year and it is likely the playoffs will only be seen in Edmonton by the Oil Kings and the Golden Bears.
However, depending of which blogger or MSM source you consume, if you believe the sum of what they have to say the Oilers can’t make any changes. There will be one talking head (or blogging head?) or another who we aggressively argue against any change suggested. We were adamantly told by many high-profile sources who follow the team that the Oilers can’t fire another coach. Continuity was key for a young team and it would be too difficult to have to go into another season and learn another new system. We have also been told that firing Lowe won’t help as he doesn’t have enough influence on the player personnel decisions. Major trade? Nope, can’t do that either. The value of Eberle, Yakupov, et al would be at the lowest possible point and the Oilers would be selling low. Eberle is also too important of a player to be traded according to some.
It doesn’t matter the solution proposed there is someone adamantly against it.
It seems the only solution palatable to all commentators is to wait. See how the season plays out, wait for another trade deadline, and wait for another top-ten pick. More marginal free agents, cast-offs from other teams, and another 18 year-old “stud” are the only seemingly consensus solutions offered.
Where have we seen this before? Oh right, it is the same plan which has been used for the past five years. That has worked out, hasn’t it?
Today on Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer had Erie Otters part owner and GM Sherry Bassin on the show. Bassin has had a long career in hockey and has been associated with some of the greats in the game. He stated that he always tries to build a team by focusing on goaltending, defense, and centre ice. Odd, that he didn’t state that he builds from the wings in. That is how the Oilers are built and it is really wonder why they’re continually on the outside of the playoffs?
According to the pundits and a large number of bloggers, the only solution which hasn’t been tried can’t be tried- to significantly change the composition of the roster. “Stupid idea, they’d be selling low.” Is it more stupid to keep doing the same thing, which hasn’t been working for the better part of a decade, or to step outside the box and try something new? Is it crazy to admit that some of the team’s ‘stars’ may not be as good as some fans and pundits want to believe? To me it is entirely plausible given the actual, not theoretical, results. The wins and points in the standings just haven’t been there.
“But Lowe sucks. Eakins sucks. MacT sucks. Howson sucks. Chabot ruins goaltenders!” While those sentiments are understandable and even defendable, this team has made no substantial improvement in becoming a playoff team since they drafted Taylor Hall first overall in 2010. None, and they look to be a bottom ten team again this season. Consider that in the 2008-09 season, two years after the Blackhawks took Toews 3rd overall, Chicago went 45-22-0-11 (after firing Denis Savard after 4 games). You could say, “Yeah, but they had Kane,” but the Oilers already had Eberle when they drafted Hall and took RNH at first overall in 2011. The biggest difference is the overall team composition. Strangely enough, the Blackhawks didn’t build from the wings in. Names like Campbell, Keith, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson were on the back end. Besides Toews and Kane, the Blackhawks featured Havlat, Versteeg, Sharp, Byfuglien, and Troy Brouwer up front. They also had Huet and a prior to ‘best before date’ Khabibulin in goal (not to mention Crawford waiting in the wings). Bottom line is the Blackhawks had a lineup full of actual NHL players to support their young stars. Whether it was Tambellini or MacT, no Oilers GM in recent memory can claim he has provided the same. What they can claim is a penchant for rolling the dice a veteran players who have had one or two decent seasons with other seasons of mixed results. Belov, Grebeshkov, Pouliot, Purcell, Fasth, Eager (a former Blackhawk), Nikitin, and the list goes on. These are bets that management has largely lost.
So how does the team acquire proven depth throughout the roster? By moving assets with actual value from an area of strength. Whether it is Eberle, Yakupov, a first rounder, or other coveted piece, the time has come to admit the current formula has been a failure and to strike a deal to balance the roster. “Ya, but the Oilers will lose that trade or any trade.” How is that known? Ales Hemsky (advanced stat darling for some while he was in Edmonton) was supposed to tear it up once he moved to a ‘real’ team. No goals and one assist in fifteen games for Dallas this season. Sam Gagner (a player I wrongly used to defend) has 4 points in fifteen games with Phoenix. These were the elite in Edmonton for a few years (in Hemsky’s case more than a few) and they are far from elite in their current situations. I know what you are saying, “Neither of those guys is as good as Eberle.” While that may be true, in Hemsky’s best season as an Oiler he had 77 points. Eberle’s best is 76. The point I’m trying to make isn’t that Eberle isn’t a good player, I definitely believe he is, but that there is no guarantee he is going to match or exceed his current production in another city. Actually, if he ends up on a team with better options and more depth, as is the case with Hemsky, it is just as likely his production could drop.
Some of the same people who claim the team can’t trade Eberle were adamant the team should re-sign Hemsky because of the huge loss he would be to the team. Frankly, I don’t see it. He has one point in fifteen games with Dallas and the Oilers basically have the same record that they had with him on the squad last season. What I do see is that a star in Edmonton has become another teams depth/insurance player.
Do I want to see Eberle or Yakupov traded? No, not necessarily. Neither do I directly advocate trading the 2015 or 2016 first rounder. However, I do see the need for a drastic change to the roster. The overstocking on the wings has left the team un-balanced. Do I believe that Eberle on his own will bring in a legit top-pair defender? Probably not, but he certainly has enough cache to be featured in a deal. Could Yakupov bring a second line centre? On his own, not a chance. In a package with draft picks and other prospects? Possibly. The Oilers will have to give to get and I don’t believe that they would have to lose any trade agreement they enter. Do you trade both Eberle and Yakupov? No, the presence of one makes the subtraction of the other possible.
Am I suggesting that Yakupov is on par with Eberle? No, Eberle’s career numbers suggest he is the better player right now. However, they both currently have 3 goals a piece on basically the same amount of shots (39 for Eberle and 40 for Yak) and virtually the same shooting percentage (7.7% for Eberle and 7.5% for Yak). Eberle plays more minutes (19:26 per game versus 14:48) and is a mainstay on the first unit powerplay. Eberle is expendable (in my mind) because they both play right wing and Yakupov has shown the potential to be a replacement for Eberle if given a larger role. No guarantees he can fill Eberle’s shoes but there are no guarantees in life.
While Eakins decision making is a puzzle wrapped in a riddle, until he (or any Oiler coach) is gifted a well planned and NHL calibre roster I wouldn’t expect more than a sub-playoff team. The Nashville Predators were openly mocked in this market for signing some actual NHL centres in the off-season (albeit ones with some blemishes), who weren’t good enough for most observers of the Oilers, and Nashville if off to a solid start (did I mention they changed their coach?).
Sherry Bassin said it. Build with goaltending, defense, and centre ice. The current plan with stockpiled wings has been tried. Its been tried with several coaches and two GM’s. It doesn’t work. The team needs balance. Time for something new.
On Management (specifically Kevin Lowe)
You could read the above and say, “yes, but you could apply the same logic to Kevin Lowe. He hasn’t been replaced and getting rid of him would be ‘something new’.” I wouldn’t argue with that point. The only thing I would suggest is that given his relationship with the owner it is not likely he will be moved out. In addition, the removal of the POHO wouldn’t have an immediate impact on the ice or in the standings. It may over several seasons, but that change wouldn’t save this season.
Really Long Run for MS
As a person living with Multiple Sclerosis I am very fortunate. I still play hockey, run, and do most everything I was able to do before I was diagnosed. For me the worst symptoms are fatigue (sometimes extreme), issues with my balance, and constant numbness in my hands and feet. However, I am one of the lucky ones and many with this disease find simple things like walking next to impossible and there are many who can’t walk at all. Every spring my wife and I ride in the MS Bike from Leduc to Camrose. This year I have decided to run the 85 KM (one leg of the MS Bike) in a single day two weeks prior to the big ride to raise money and awareness. On May 23rd, 2015 I will begin the run in the wee hours of the morning and be met during the day by others who will run portions with me (and hopefully keep me sane and motivated). All money raised will go to the MS Society of Canada. If you would like to know more, donate, volunteer, or even join me for a portion of the run you can get more information by clicking here.
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