Oilers’ Defensive Debacle

I’ll admit, I haven’t listened to much of “Oilers Now” in recent years. I used to listen everyday at work, but since heading to school, I’ve just been too busy for it. I missed Friday’s show, where Oilers GM Craig MacTavish joined host Bob Stauffer to talk about the state of the Oilers current roster, but I just assumed nothing really good would come out of it.

For the most part, I was right. It was another one of those company done interviews where the guy knows the questions before hand and nothing of real substance is said. That being said, there was one quote that I was made aware of when reading an excellent piece by the great Woodguy earlier tonight.

The piece pointed out how the Oilers GM believes he has a top defensive pairing, and essentially how five out of his six defenders are set for next year. MacT mentions in the interview that he has a “Top two group who I’m very happy with” and later went on to say how he will be counting on both Mark Fayne and Nikita Nikitin for next season as his second pairing.

MacT also praised Andrew Ference and mentioned that they have a bunch of developing players who could make the jump next season. One imagines he means Martin Marincin and Darnell Nurse when saying that.

Let’s start with the first point, that the Oilers have a top two defense group. MacT is referring to defenders Oscar Klefbom and Justin Schultz when saying this.

Let’s start with Klefbom, who has been really good since getting in the lineup full time. Klefbom’s possession stats are really good this year, over 50%, and he’s been a lot more comfortable offensively. He’s done a great job breaking up the cycle, and has forced more than his fair share of turnovers. By the eye, he’s looked good.

Justin Schultz has been much better under Todd Nelson, moving the puck well and finally putting up points. He doesn’t look as lost either, and is still handling large minute amounts while playing on Edmonton’s power-play. Schultz is starting to look like a real NHL player, which is a really good sign.

Here’s the thing, this group isn’t playing top-pairing competition, not even close. While this pairing is number one in terms of minutes played, they are getting the heaviest zone start push and easiest competition on the team. They don’t face the opponent’s best players, and don’t get put in tough spots.

That’s a great way to develop players, but that doesn’t make them a top unit. If they can handle these minutes and this role next year, then they are a fine easy minutes pairing. They’ve really handled this role well, and have actually been productive while playing over 20 minutes a night.

That said, MacT is foolish to think this is a unit that can handle tough zone starts and tough opposition. They have proven that, to this point, they cannot. They should be allowed to play big minutes in an easier role, not put into a pressure role as the top-pairing, that is setting them up for failure if you ask me.

As for Nikitin and Fayne, well this is a terrible idea. Mark Fayne is a legit top-four defender, but he’s not a guy that carry a pairing, he needs someone competent with him. Sadly, Nikitin is not. Yes, he had been playing better before his injury, but overall he has been awful this season.

Asking these guys to play against tough opposition is just an unrealistic ask. These guys can’t handle going up against Getzlaf, the Sedin twins, Thornton, and the rest of the gauntlet, they just aren’t good enough as a group. Fayne can handle the role with a competent partner, but Nikitin is just not that guy. I can’t see this group being anything more than a nightmare.

As for Ference and a prospect, well that success will likely depend on said prospect. Ference on the third pairing is the perfect fit, he can play his physical, shut-down style in a limited minutes basis while handling middle of the road competition. He’s not terrible and can handle that role.

Martin Marincin, who likely gets this role, has proven he can handle this level of competition too. To me, Darnell Nurse needs at least half of a season in the AHL before coming up to Edmonton, but what do I know?

A defensive group that features a top pairing of Klefbom-Schultz, a tough opponents pairing of Nikitin-Fayne and a third pairing of Ference-Marincin could be absolute disaster, it could be really bad. I’m talking debacle of monumental proportions bad.

I do think that the Klefbom-Schultz pairing could be good in this same role, while a Ference-Marincin pairing should be fine as a third unit. That tough minutes unit of Nikitin and Fayne? That might set Edmonton on fire, which sends the whole group crashing down, hard.

Woodguy said it best, MacT hasn’t really been misleading, and when he speaks, he usually acts on it later on. The scary part of this is that it could very well be a reality, which means next season is, for the tenth year in a row, a wash.

That all said, personally, I can’t see Edmonton heading into next season with a defensive group including all six of those players. Darren Dreger mentioned earlier this season that an Oilers source indicated that they know they needed to add a defender or two, and we’ve heard rumblings for years.

I can’t see MacT, in another massive year, make the same stupid mistakes. I do think Klefbom and Schultz could be a thing, and that Ference and Fayne will be back, but I’ll be stunned if MacT doesn’t make an addition or two to this unit. Is that Boychuk? Is that Phaneuf? Is that Seabrook, Methot, Sekera? I’m not sure, but I think someone of note will be added…..not only think, but hope.

Either way, this part of the interview makes me really uneasy. I just hope MacT knows that he needs to upgrade this position, because if this is the group he goes into 2015-16 with, he might just lose his job.