Oilers Draft: The Case For Keeping 16

Yesterday, I made the case for the Oilers to trade the 16th overall pick in the upcoming entry draft. Today, I’ll make the case for the team to keep the pick. We know the Oil will take Connor McDavid first, but after that we have no idea what will happen.

Edmonton is in a rare spot. This draft is viewed as the best since the 2003 entry draft, which was a generational one. If this draft is that deep, then a very good player will be available to the Oilers at the 16 spot. Can Edmonton afford to move it for pennies on the dollar?

Under-Valued:

While the 16th overall pick with certainly have value on trade market, Edmonton likely will not get full value for the pick. If the Oilers select a player and he pans out, they’ll have an asset for anywhere from seven to ten years. If you trade the pick, you might only get 82 games from said player.

Let’s say Edmonton takes the risk and trades the pick and other pieces for Brent Seabrook. What happens if Seabrook refuses to re-sign and bolts a year from now? Same goes for a number of other trade candidates.

As for moving the pick for a goalie, well that’s just a bad idea to begin with. Odds are, unless Edmonton gets a solid to elite player in his late 20’s, they likely end up losing the deal long-term.

Long Term Solutions:

There is a strong chance that some long-term solutions will be available to Edmonton at this pick. For all intents and purposes, the main portion of the cluster moves back to age 18 once McDavid gets picked. Edmonton could add another, long-term, player of substance to that core with this pick.

In net, Ilya Samsonov represents a potential franchise goaltender. Many compare Samsonov to Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is quickly growing into a very good netminder. Samsonov would take time, but he could be a long-term solution in net for the Oilers.

On the blue-line, Edmonton could come out with a few prospects of note. Jeremy Roy represents a solid all-around defender with decent size, while Jakub Zboril also represents great value as an all-around defender. Neither of these guys would be ready to help in 2015, but in a few years, both of them could be solid NHL players.

Up front, Evgeni Svechnikov has become a favorite of the blogging community. He’s played pro before (3 KHL games in 2013-14) and he dominated the QMJHL last season. He won’t be ready this year, but he could make the jump in the fall of 2016. He’s talented, and he’s got some size.

Guys like Kelowna’s Nick Merkley, Portland’s Paul Bittner and Halifax’s Timo Meier would all represent good value too. Bittner is a solid power-forward in the WHL, while Meier is a tremendous skill player in the Q who actually might be ready to jump to the pros.

All of these players will require time and patience, but each one of them could fill a hole in Edmonton for the better part of a decade. Very few, if any, trade options could do that.

Cap Flexibility:

Keeping the pick also sets Edmonton up with more money come July 1st, which could be used to acquire pieces via free agency. Is trading for Robin Lehner worth it over signing Antti Niemi? I’m not exactly sure. Is trading for Jared Spurgeon that much better than signing Cody Franson? Again, I’m not so sure.

The player picked at 16 would also represent a value contract for Edmonton down the line, and we all know how valuable those can be to a team with Stanley Cup hopes.

Closing Argument:

If Edmonton trades the 16th overall pick, they’ll need to be very careful. Acquiring immediate help is both key and needed, but it must be calculated. You can’t give up the pick for Brent Seabrook and not re-sign him, you need value here. If that means not making a move, then so be it.

I’m hoping the Oilers trade the pick for immediate help, maybe as part of a package for Dougie Hamilton, but I pray they don’t give it away in a panic move to gain two or three wins next season.

This pick could be a long-term and cheap solution, these guys truly need to be careful. Either way you slice it, the Oilers have an important decision to make when they pick 16th in just over two weeks.