Oilers Gameday: February 14th at Sharks

Edmonton (24-18-3) at San Jose (22-20-4)

It’s an idea that has been present throughout most of the Oilers season, ambivalence, contrast. The highs of an early win streak against the lows of a long losing streak. The brilliance of McDavid and Draisaitl against the rest of the roster. There are many reasons to want to believe in this team, that things could be different this season, just as much as there are reasons not to.

Now we hope another pair of extremes can begin to establish themselves, defined by a mid season coaching change. Perhaps the stresses and existential dread that accompanied the stagnant mediocrity that Tippett’s regime turned into can be replaced by an aura of growth and optimism under Woodcroft. At the very least, after 1 game it seems like a possibility.

No small number of positive omens have presented themselves as well. The signing of Kane vastly improves the forward group. The health of Smith will greatly stabilize the goaltending. Woodcroft’s relationship with many of the Oilers young players gives reason to believe their contributions might be more significant going forward. No doubt a win in the new coach’s first game helps, as does the opportunity for a second straight with a winnable matchup against the Sharks tonight.

The Sharks have been hovering above a .500 points percentage, firmly in a “retooling” situation. There are still several high quality players on the roster, but it’s not quite enough to make a serious run at a playoff spot. With an infusion of young, high end talent in the near future things might turn around. For now the team is mired in a tough stretch, going for a mere 3 wins in their past 10 games. It is equal parts telling and concerning that Sharks rank ahead of the Oil in several of the simplest defensive metrics such as goals against per game and penalty kill efficiency.

In all, tonight should be a great opportunity for the Oilers to keep on the right track, punctuated by the aforementioned Kane returning to face his old team for the first time. Skinner seems to be the starter for the Oilers while the Sharks are expected to start with Reimer.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Edmonton:

1. Penalty Kill. Coach Woodcroft mentioned that this has been an early area of focus in the team’s limited practice time. Rightly so considering the group’s effectiveness has eroded to a lowly 76.5% on the season, good for 24th in the league.

San Jose:

1. Score early. Overmatched on paper, the Sharks best chance comes with catching the Oil off guard and sowing seeds of doubt in their opponent’s heads with an early lead.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Edmonton:

Hyman — McDavid — Puljujarvi

Kane — Draisaitl — Yamamoto

Foegele — Nugent-Hopkins — Ryan

Benson — xxxxx — McLeod

Nurse — Bouchard

Lagesson — Ceci

Niemelainen — Barrie

Broberg — xxxxx

Skinner

Smith

San Jose:

Meier — Hertl — Barabanov

Balcers — Couture — Dahlen

Cogliano — Bonino — Nieto

Gregor — Pederson — Viel

Ferraro — Burns

Middleton — Meloche

Vlasic — Simek

Reimer

Sawchenko

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Edmonton:

It seems as though Woodcroft will continue to go with 7 defencemen and 11 forwards, which is reasonable given the relative strengths of each group. It allows the d group to be used more situationally, to their strengths, while allowing players like Benson and McLeod the chance to play with a top centre, all of whom would appreciate an extra shift here and there.

Since the forward group is mostly similar to what we’ve seen all season I’ll keep this short. It’s great to see Puljujarvi back with McDavid.

More interesting is the usage of the defence. Nurse and Ceci are the mainstays, logging huge minutes while their younger and less established teammates cycle through. In a summer that saw GM Holland make a lot of moves that were questionable it’s fair to say that signing Ceci has been a big win. He’s onto his fourth coach in the past 3 seasons and each and every one of them have quickly learned they can rely on what Ceci brings to the table. By no means is he perfect or a superstar but especially given the losses of Larsson and Bear it’s sobering to think of where this team would be without him.

It is interesting to see how Woodcroft, or rather defence coach Dave Manson, deploys the fringes of this blueline. Perhaps the likes of Niemelainen, Lagesson, and Broberg can thrive with this new opportunity. Any such developments would be hugely positive news for the Oilers, and it’s not out of the question that at least one of them firmly steps into a difference making role. 

San Jose:

The Sharks are far from devoid of talent, starting up front with a trio of high level forwards in Hertl, Meier, and Couture. There’s been a lot of trade talk surrounding Hertl this season, and for what it’s worth I have no doubts about his talents or his attitude. I think he would make a great long term addition to any team’s core group and could be a captain or assistant captain.

Joining them in the top 6 are a trio of less known commodities. Barabanov is feisty in puck battles and has the quality to make plays on his forehand or backhand. Balcers has some smarts. Dahlen is the most promising, and the youngest, and is having a somewhat productive rookie season after several years of dominating the Allsvenskan. He has great skating and skill.

Bonino has been a great defensive depth option at centre for the better part of a decade. He is flanked by a pair of speedy veterans in Cogliano and Nieto.

The big piece missing on the blueline is Erik Karlsson, who is on IR. In his spot is Meloche. Many think of Karlsson and Brent Burns when characterizing the Sharks, older or at least past their peak, highly compensated with long terms remaining on their contracts. Both are still strong contributors though and that shouldn’t be lost, certainly a stronger team performance would see more attention headed their direction. Both are still logging huge minutes and given how uniquely talented both are it would not be surprising to see them remain more effective than one might assume in the coming years.

Flanking them are a pair of younger, contrasting players, as both Ferraro and Middleton are more defensively inclined than their (usual) star partners.

The most burdensome contract on the roster is undoubtedly Vlasic’s. As much as he was undervalued and unheralded in his 20s it’s been a bit of the opposite in his 30s. He’s had a great career but he probably has less tread left on the tires than Burns or Karlsson at this point.