Edmonton (29-21-3) at Philadelphia (16-26-10)

With the start of March the shadow of spring is upon us. The trade deadline looms a mere 3 weeks away. The playoff race has continued to focus, taking shape as we race towards the end of the regular season. At least for today the Oilers find themselves on the outside looking in.

Once again the absences of notable players has swelled, as Nugent-Hopkins and Yamamoto have joined the likes of Puljujarvi on the injury report. Missing 3 top 6 forwards is not an easy task for any team to overcome, let alone one that is struggling to assert themselves into the league’s elite like the Oilers are. Combined with the tenuous situation in net there is ample reason to be concerned in Oil country.

It’s not all bad news though. Under coach Woodcroft the team has been much better, especially on the blueline, where Keith appears set to return to the lineup. Woodcroft and assistant coach Manson have leveraged their prior knowledge of young depth players to instantly stabilize the defensive group. The team as a whole appears to be much more detailed, showing signs that many flow of play metrics (such as shots for %, scoring chance %, and expected goals %) have improved with it.

What’s more is that the Oilers find themselves with a winnable matchup against the Flyers after a tough 1-3-0 stretch of games against top teams (MIN, TB, FLA, CAR). The Flyers have had another rough season, perhaps epitomizing the listless existential dread of being caught between rebuilding and contending. Outside of firing their coach (Vigneault) earlier this year, longtime executive and former Captain Bobby Clarke had a famously honest rant disparaging the work of former GM Hextall years after he was let go. Whether he was accurate in his descriptions or not the Flyers haven’t been able to improve their roster in the years since.

The Oilers have a stretch of weaker opponents beyond tonight with Chicago and Montreal up next. With time quickly running out the Oilers need to continue improving and translating that elevated level of play into wins. The margin for error is running thin.

We should see Carter Hart start for the Flyers while the Oilers should be giving the net to Koskinen.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Edmonton:

1. Punch through. The Oilers, although depleted, should be the better team on the ice tonight. The Flyers have an exploitable roster especially deeper into the lineup. The Oilers need to be assertive in setting the pace and intensity of the game.

Philadelphia:

1. Carter’s heart. Goaltending is the great equalizer and despite a few less-that-stellar seasons Hart is still a supremely talented young netminder. It should not be discounted that he can steal a game.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Edmonton: Yamamoto is a game time decision.

Foegele — McDavid — Hyman

Kane — Draisaitl — *Yamamoto*

Shore — McLeod — Ryan

Benson — xxxxx — Malone

Nurse — Barrie

Niemelainen — Ceci

Keith — Bouchard

Lagesson — xxxxx

Koskinen

Smith

Philadelphia:

Farabee — Giroux — Atkinson

Lindblom — Laughton — Konecny

van Riemsdyk — Brassard — Mayhew

Ratcliffe — Brown — MacEwen

Provorov — Braun

Sanheim — Ristolainen

Yandle — Seeler

Hart

Jones

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Edmonton:

Naturally, Yamamoto’s status will be a primary concern. Regardless, Hyman and Kane are effective options alongside McDavid and Draisaitl respectively. Perhaps a Yamamoto absence will see a promotion for the torrid Derek Ryan or Tyler Benson.

McLeod has been quite good all season, as things have gone about as well as one could have hoped for to this point.

Duncan Keith returns to the lineup, and now we shall see how Woodcroft fits the veteran into the team’s new 7 defencemen deployment. I’ve taken some liberties in putting the Ceci–Niemelainen pairing with 2nd, mostly due to Ceci’s consistent usage as an important defender, but also in part because Niemelainen has been working his way up the lineup in his own right.

Naturally, with the odd number of defenders there is some mixing and matching that occurs. The coaches have done a good job at using players in situations they can succeed in.

Philadelphia:

Giroux, the Flyers captain, still has some game left, but with an expiring contract his name has been the focus of trade rumours. For now he finds himself centring a pair of speedy and skilled wingers in Atkinson and Farabee.

Laughton has done quite well higher in the lineup this season, playing with Konecny certainly helps. These two definitely embody the fierce tenacity known as the Flyers brand.

van Riemsdyk may have slowed down since his prime, but he is still a premier net front presence with the size and soft hands to convert.

The Flyers defence is quite interesting, full of notably polarizing players. Personally I have a lot of time for both Provorov and Sanheim. Both have a blend of puck moving skills and physicality that could see them as potential 2-way stalwarts if supported correctly. Both are probably what most would call number 2/3 defencemen.

Yandle has an incredible iron-man consecutive games streak. It’s come close to ending a few times as his foot speed becomes more of an issue, but his hockey I.Q. and puck skills are strong enough for him to stay useful, at least to a team that is not trying to contend like the Flyers.

The right side is decidedly more physical. Braun is probably a bit higher in the lineup than he should be. Seeler is defensively minded enough to be a reasonable stylistic match for Yandle.

Ristolainen has long been a controversial player across evaluators. The play of the 2010s Sabres is at times referenced as the reason he struggled, although many might suggest that he was the cause of those struggles. His first season in a new organization has not gone well, yet despite this we found out today that he turned down a 6 year $6.3 million per year contract offer from the Flyers, citing a desire to play in the postseason. This all but guarantees that he will be traded.

By some metrics he is an extremely valuable asset. He’s a big, right shooting defender who has played top minutes for a long time. He was a very highly touted prospect coming into the draft as well. That being said, the results have not been there by any metric of on ice performance. It’s hard to believe that he will get a more lucrative offer than what he allegedly turned down, but it perfectly encapsulates how and why the Flyers are in the mess that they currently find themselves in.