Oilers Gameday: March 9th vs Capitals

Washington (31-18-9) at Edmonton (30-23-4)

After some brief moments bordering on optimism from the coaching change, an unsettling and foreboding sense of doom casts its shadow across the Oilers horizons. Yes, the team started amazingly well, evened it out with an equally sustained awful stretch. Yet removed from all that finds themselves just 4-5-1 in their last 10 games. It’s categorically not good enough, as shown by the Oilers on the outside looking in of a playoff spot. It does not help that teams around them, such as Los Angeles and Dallas, have been so good as of late.

To an extent, the Capitals, the opponents tonight, have been fading as of late as well. Over the past several offseasons many have predicted the Caps aging core to start sputtering, but they’ve managed to keep it going. At this point the hope is that an influx of young talent can give the group the extra punch they need to be truly dangerous. After all, the balance of power between good and mediocre is quite narrow in today’s NHL, a fact the Oilers know all too well.

At full health it looked as though the Oilers had enough firepower up front to tip the scales in their favour. Yes, there’s quite a bit of hoping attached to the goaltending and blueline situations, but with a truly elite group up front the worry around those can be mitigated. Missing Puljujarvi and Nugent-Hopkins, in particular, is apparently more than enough to tip the balance of power away from the Oilers.

It’s not to say the team has been bad, 5 on 5 results have been quite strong under Woodcroft, but special teams have been an issue. Perhaps this is too old to be relevant, but Tippett consistently had strong special teams numbers, so perhaps there’s no direction these metrics could have gone but down after the coaching change.

The clamps are tightening as time ticks away and the Oilers have not left enough room for themselves as it comes to understandable losses to strong teams. It will be Koskinen and Samsonov getting the start for their teams.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Edmonton:

1. Penalty Kill. The Oilers have been quite poor all season in this respect, but against Ovechkin and the Caps this deserves extra emphasis.

Washington:

1. Depth. With a depleted Oilers lineup across from them, the opportunity to win based on the matchups lower in the lineup exists for the Caps. In what should be a tight game a positive goal differential from the bottom 6 would be enormous for their chances.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Edmonton: Niemelainen is out (personal), Smith appears to be out as well.

McLeod — McDavid — Hyman

Kane — Draisaitl — Yamamoto

Foegele — Shore — Ryan

Benson — Malone — Sceviour

Nurse — Ceci

Keith — Bouchard

Broberg — Lagesson

Koskinen

Skinner

Washington:

Ovechkin — Kuznetsov — Wilson

Mantha — Backstrom — Oshie

McMichael — Eller — Sheary

Jonsson-Fjallby — Dowd — Hathaway

Fehervary — Carlson

Orlov — Jensen

van Riemsdyk — Schultz

Samsonov

Vanacek

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Edmonton:

With McLeod’s prolonged stay up the lineup it’s fair to say that he’s overtaken the likes of Ryan and Foegele in the lineup. He’s truly been one of the silver linings in this year’s storm cloud. That being said he might still be overextended to be in the top 6.

The absences of RNH and Puljujarvi (and subsequently the deflation of a strong top 9 to a middling group) becomes apparent with Shore promoted to the third line. It doesn’t make sense to take umbrage with him personally, in fact to be in this position is a testament to his determination. However, it is not very inspiring to see him at the crucial 3C spot.

I am guessing at the defensive pairings here as Niemelainen is out. Nurse-Ceci might be putting a lot of the most defensively capable eggs into the same basket, which could of course be very helpful circumstantially. Keith-Bouchard has a strong offensive lean to it, which speaks to Woodcroft’s being much more situationally oriented than Tippett.

Broberg has gotten into games under Woodcroft but tonight could be a chance for more minutes with “only” 6 defencemen dressed.

Unfortunately, it’s quite fair to say that the situation with Mike Smith has gone about as poorly as possible. We will see what the issue is at this point, but given the age, the performance this season, and the amount of time incurring and recurring injuries there is dwindling hope for those waiting for a turnaround.

Washington:

We all know about Ovechkin, the first line, and many of the mainstays for the Caps. Both Oshie and Mantha have been out for much of the season and provide a high level of secondary scoring. In particular, Mantha has not had much time in a Capitals uniform after being acquired at the deadline last season and being out with injury this season. He is a goal scorer with a good shot and a big body, he should benefit from playing with a superb playmaker in Backstrom and the aforementioned Oshie.

McMichael has had a decent season, but is really just beginning to scratch the surface of what he might become. He definitely has a goal scoring touch. He is exactly the type of player who can help prolong the Caps relevance if he continues to grow his game.

Likewise, Fehervary has been attached to Carlson most of the season, a huge role for the young defender. It’s quite a lot to ask of him but he’s done reasonably well to be frank.

It helps, of course, that the Caps blueline is relatively deep. Orlov-Jensen is slotted quite well as a strong second pairing, while TVR-Schultz is certainly capable of handling depth minutes.

Washington is another team that has goaltending rumours surrounding them. The tandem of Samsonov and Vanacek is young, largely inexperienced and definitely affordable. It hasn’t exactly gone swimmingly, including an infamous outburst directed at Samsonov by Ovechkin in last year’s playoffs.