Oilers Have Their Defensive Plan?

Monday, February 23rd, 2015. It’s exactly seven days from the NHL’s trading deadline, and the expectation is that the Edmonton Oilers will be involved in the festivities. How involved will the Oilers be? That’s the million dollar question, but we have at least one of their deals surrounded, and that is D Jeff Petry.

Last week, we heard that Craig MacTavish and Petry’s agent had had “constructive” talks, but that is it. On Sunday, the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reported that the effort didn’t result in a contract, and that the Oilers are likely to deal the defender within the next week. HNIC’s Elliotte Friedman reported the same on Saturday night.

So, with Jeff Petry likely gone, what exactly is the plan in Edmonton when it comes to the defense? I think we can assume that a pairing of Oscar Klefbom and Justin Schultz is in the plans, as the youngsters have shown some real signs since Todd Nelson took over.

I also think we can write in Mark Fayne to the right-side of the depth chart, and Nikita Nikitin to the left-side of the depth chart. Andrew Ference is a wild card, as are Darnell Nurse and Martin Marincin. Nurse would benefit from AHL time, but Edmonton usually rushes prospects. As for Marincin, he seems like the young defender on the outside looking in, and is likely trade bait moving froward.

So what happens if Edmonton does move Petry for a second round pick or a prospect? I’ll tell you what happens, it impacts the off-season in a major way, and totally shifts the focus of the shopping list from the goaltending position to the blue-line.

Edmonton already needs a top-four left-handed defender, but would now also need a right-handed shot in the top-four, meaning two of the top-four spots would be open for debate this summer. That makes the summer shopping list a very difficult one to complete.

The left-side options mostly come via trade, Toronto D Dion Phaneuf and Chicago D Brent Seabrook lead the charge (Coyotes D Zbynek Michalek and Penguins D Paul Martin are UFA options), while the right-side options are out there in the free agent market.

There is one player that just makes way too much sense for Edmonton, and he just so happens to be from the city.

Back in the summer, the Oilers and Bruins discussed a trade that would have sent D Johnny Boychuk to Edmonton, but the deal never went through. Boychuk ended up getting dealt to the Islanders, and he has emerged as the number one option on the hockey club.

Boychuk will be a free agent on July 1st, and the expectation is that he might want to return home and play for the team he grew up rooting for, the Edmonton Oilers. This rumor has been out there all season long, and only gained momentum on Sunday when Larry Brooks wrote the following:

The chatter that began over the summer about Johnny Boychuk wanting to sign with his hometown Oilers this summer when the 31-year-old defenseman becomes a free agent persists even as his value to the Cup contenders on Long Island continues to grow.

As huge a get as Boychuk was for GM Garth Snow when he acquired Boychuk on the eve of the season from Boston (who chose not to use their precious cap space on him while fearful of losing the defenseman for nothing), keeping the righty will be a more challenging task…even as the Islanders appear to be in an outstanding position relative to the cap.

The number will start at $6 M per.

Johnny Boychuk is a legit top-four defender, is in his prime, and is an upgrade on Jeff Petry. I’ve seen Boychuk play up close for a long time, and I can say that with confidence. Boychuk has a bomb of a shot, is a physical player, a leader, and is very, very solid defensively. He’s a perfect Edmonton Oiler, a modern day Jason Smith with more offensive instincts.

A right-handed D core of Boychuk, Justin Schultz and Mark Fayne is fine by me, in fact I’d see it as an upgrade. Here’s the thing however, it is a pricey prospect. A contract starting at $6 M per year is a huge number, and would make Boychuk the highest paid Oiler. To me, that is an over-payment. Boychuk is good, but he is not an elite player at the NHL level.

The other thing is, this is a major risk. If the Islanders win a round in the playoffs and make a fair offer, why wouldn’t Boychuk want to stay with them? The Oilers are still a mess and likely will need two more seasons before rebounding to playoff level. Why would Boychuk come over to the Oilers if the offer is even close? He wouldn’t unless his heart was that strong with bringing him back home.

If this is the plan, and we have heard rumblings for months that it is, it is a very, very risky one. Trading your best defender and just hoping that Johnny Boychuk becomes available is a very risky prospect, one that could easily backfire on the team. What happens if Boychuk re-signs with New York? Then what do you do on the right side?

If everything works out, then the Oilers likely come out on top. I like Jeff Petry a lot, but I also have always liked Johnny Boychuk from his days with the Boston Bruins. He’s a very solid player that does a lot of things right, he’s a great fit.

That said, it’s a risky prospect for Edmonton, one that could end up ending in disaster should Boychuk re-sign with his current club. It also adds another item to the shopping list this summer, as a left-handed defender must be added to the roster as well.

It appears that the Oilers have their course of action planned out, the only question that remains is if they can pull it off. I’ll be impressed if they can, but I’m certainly not counting on it.