On April 18, the Oilers are hoping to to be crowned champions of the NHL Draft Lottery for an unprecedented fourth time.* Maybe Edmonton should still be known as the “City of Champions”?
The Odds
The Oilers finished twenty-eighth in the NHL’s standings. This means that they will walk away from the draft lottery with either the first, third, or fourth pick in this year’s draft.
- There is an 11.5% chance that the Oilers win the draft lottery, giving them the first overall pick. The NHL is continually tinkering with the draft lottery system. Last season, the Oilers also finished twenty-eighth, but their chances of winning the lottery were better: 14.2%.
- There is a 33.5% chance that the Oilers will stay put at third. For this to happen, either the Sabres or the Coyotes will have to win the lottery.
- There is a 55% chance that the Oilers will move down one spot to fourth. Many Oilers’ fans are assuming that the Oilers will end up with the third overall pick, but it’s actually more likely that they will have the fourth pick.
AGM Bill Scott will represent EDM at Saturday’s draft lottery.
— Jack Michaels (@EdmontonJack) April 13, 2015
Hopefully the Oilers told Steve Tambellini to leave his lucky tie in his office when they fired him.
The Prospects
Most hockey scouts say there is a clear top-five among this year’s crop of prospects: (1) center Connor McDavid (OHL), (2) center Jack Eichel (NCAA), (3) defenseman Noah Hanifin (NCAA), (4) center Dylan Strome (OHL), and (5) winger Mitch Marner (OHL).
If the Oilers win the draft lottery, they will obviously draft McDavid, the most hyped prospect since Sidney Crosby. The Oilers will have no chance of drafting Eichel since, barring some unforeseen incident, he’ll be taken with the second pick. In all likelihood, the Oilers will have the third or fourth pick and draft either Hanifin or Strome. While these two aren’t of the quality of McDavid or Eichel, they’re still regarded as excellent prospects–perhaps as good as some recent first overall picks.
A Trade?
Whichever pick the Oilers end up with–first, third, or fourth–that pick will be a very valuable asset. I’m sure there will be many teams contacting the Oilers about a trade.
There’s speculation that the Leafs covet Dylan Strome. If–and that’s a big if–the Oilers and the Leafs end up with the third and fourth picks respectively, there’s a possibility that the Leafs might want to swap picks with the Oilers to ensure that they get Strome. Adam Proteau of The Hockey News relayed an interesting trade scenario that he was told by an unknown NHL agent.
Spoke to NHL agent who wonders if this could happen: Leafs & Oilers swap No. 3 & 4 picks, Phaneuf goes to Edmonton, Leafs eat some money.
— Adam Proteau (@Proteautype) April 13, 2015
Under that scenario, Leafs would get Strome, Oilers would get Phaneuf and Hanifin.
— Adam Proteau (@Proteautype) April 13, 2015
In my opinion, this deal would be a no-brainer for the Oilers. The Oilers could draft Hanifin, acquire Phaneuf, and receive some cash, and all they’d have to do is move down one spot in the draft. The fact that it’s a no-brainer makes me think this deal is too good to be true.
Will It Be Televised?
There has been some confusion regarding whether or not the draft lottery will be televised. On April 3, Ken Campbell of The Hockey News wrote, “Multiple sources have confirmed to thn.com that even though this year’s draft lottery will not be televised live, a video of the entire process will be made available for public consumption after the fact.”
However, it looks like the NHL changed its mind. CBC Sports made the following announcement on April 12:
In the most anticipated pre-draft event since the Pittsburgh Penguins won the right to select Sidney Crosby No. 1 overall back in 2005, CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada will broadcast the NHL’s draft lottery on Saturday.
The event will take place at 8 p.m. ET, with the winner to be revealed before Game 2 of the Eastern Conference quarter-final between the Penguins and New York Rangers (CBC, CBCSports.ca).
*In 2011, the Devils actually won the draft lottery, moving from eighth to fourth. But, to me, the team that walks away from the draft lottery with the first overall pick–as the Oilers did that year–is the real winner.
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