After falling in their favor in a big way one year ago, the lottery balls fell against the Edmonton Oilers this past weekend. After gifting them with Connor McDavid in 2015, they took Patrick Laine away this year, pushing Edmonton back from the second slot to pick number four. While it may not seem like it, this is a significant item.
The Oilers are still going to get a terrific player at four, no doubt, but missing out on a pure sniper like Laine truly does hurt. I, like many Oiler fans and bloggers, was guilty of falling in love with the prospect of the Finnish sniper finishing passes off from McDavid. That dream will remain exactly that, a dream.
The Oilers will miss out on the group of three at the top, Auston Matthews, Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi. There are still some great prospects available, but nothing that will impact the NHL in 2016-17 or possibly even in 2017-18.
Keeping The Pick:
If Edmonton keeps the pick, it’s likely a three-horse race for who gets selected. Matthew Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jakob Chychurn would be the most logical selections for Edmonton in this spot.
The two forwards, Tkachuk and Dubois, both play a heavier game and have some skill. They fit in with what Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan are looking for: size, toughness and skill. These two power-forwards aren’t in the same class as the top-three, but they are a formidable next tier that nicely fits some needs in Edmonton.
Chychurn has fallen down draft boards significantly, but I still believe that he is the top defender in this draft class. He’s one of those classic all-around defenders who does everything well but not one thing great. He’s going to be a top-four defender in the NHL, it’s just a matter of if he can make the jump to top-pairing guy at the professional level. He’s the riskiest of the three.
Should the Oilers keep the 4th overall selection, I’d go with Tkachuk. He’s got a goal scorers touch, plays a power-forwards game and has dominated the OHL this season. There is a case to be made for the others, but Dubois seems to be getting a lot of traction with the media, so keep an eye on that.
Trade:
When it was revealed that Edmonton was picking fourth, I instantly said that I wanted the team to trade the pick on Twitter. I truly meant that, I think that the best course of action for the Edmonton Oilers is to either trade out entirely or move down in the first round. Oilers insider Bob Stauffer seems to think it is at least possible.
@Bob_Stauffer said he be surprised if #Oilers keep the pick.
— Jeff (@jrock71) May 1, 2016
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Could easily see the Oilers trading down a couple spots to gain more assets or trading #4 overall for immediate help
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) May 1, 2016
Usually when Stauffer talks, there is some fire behind that smoke. The 4th overall pick is an attractive asset and Edmonton has enough young players on it’s NHL roster that sacrificing it to win now is a very appealing option. The Oilers could easily move this pick for a top-four defender either by itself or in a package, say pick 4 and Jordan Eberle for Travis Hamonic and pick 22.
Toronto, Wpg, CBJ very unlikely to consider trading their top 3 draft picks. Edmonton’s pick, 4th overall is definitely in play.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) May 1, 2016
Stauffer isn’t the only insider saying this, either. Darren Dreger seems to think the pick is in play, which adds to my thought that Edmonton will go the route of adding more proven help than sitting around and hoping for the solution to develop.
The Fourth Period wrote about the Oilers shopping the pick, while GM Peter Chiarelli touched on trading out or moving down in a great interview with 630 CHED’s Reid Wilkins.
LISTEN: Chiarelli seems very open to trading fourth overall pick: https://t.co/HioG90Ghwk
— Reid Wilkins (@ReidWilkins) May 1, 2016
Final Thoughts:
While the Oilers missed out on a chance to select Patrick Laine in June, a number of massive possibilities have now become options for the Edmonton Oilers. They can choose to select another great young talent at number four, or they could finally trade their first round pick.
At four, the Oilers won’t be getting a can’t miss player, so moving the pick outright for a proven NHL defender is now an option. Ditto moving the pick down and picking up a few other assets in a swap. There will be teams looking to move up, just as there are every single year. This will give Edmonton a pretty unique opportunity to improve it’s NHL roster.
Peter Chiarelli is no stranger to trading first round picks, he’s done it many times before. Judging by his comments to Wilkins on Saturday night, I think we should be prepared for some kind of move out of the fourth slot. Will it be outright? Will it be to move down? Will one of the needed defenders be coming back in return? We’ll have to wait for that.
If I was a betting man, judging by the GM’s comments and all the smoke surrounding the team, I’d prepare for a trade involving the fourth overall pick. These Oilers appear open for business folks.
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