Round two of the Stanley Cup Playoffs begins tomorrow for the Edmonton Oilers as they take on the Anaheim Ducks. Man, that sure was nice to type. I could get used to this.
Edmonton fans watched their team battle it out against San Jose in the first round, prevailing on the backs of David Desharnais, Zack Kassian, Cam Talbot and more. It was thrilling to watch playoff hockey again after so long, and I’m honestly impressed with how this team performed.
The scary thing is, I think the Oilers still have more in them. Connor McDavid wasn’t quite at the level that we know he can get to, and Leon Draisaitl didn’t start performing until towards the end of the series. Hell, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle didn’t even score a goal in the whole series.
Well, buckle up Oilers fans. It’s not over yet. More playoff hockey coming your way. Without further ado, here’s your series preview.
Regular Season Recap
During the 2016-17 regular season, the Ducks were only a better team than the Oilers by the thinnest of margins. It took Anaheim until the very last few days of the season to clinch the Pacific Division, with Edmonton just two points behind in the standings. The Ducks won four more games at home than the Oilers, while Edmonton managed to fare a bit better on the road, grabbing six more points than the Ducks.
Throughout the season, the Ducks showed to be a stronger defensive team than Edmonton, while the Oilers had the more potent offence. Anaheim’s 197 goals against was the third lowest in the whole league, and Edmonton’s 243 goals for was the eighth highest.
Anaheim was the best face-off team in the NHL at 54.7%, while Edmonton happened to be at the very bottom at 47%. Face-off percentage has been quite the hot topic throughout the Twittersphere and mainstream media, as everyone has their own opinion on how much impact winning a face-off has on the outcome of a game. I’m sure this is something we’ll hear all about during the series.
When previewing a series, I like to take a look at how each team fared at 5v5 to help understand how they performed over the course of a full season. In the case of this matchup, the Ducks and Oilers were very similar possession teams at even strength.
Judging by the respective PDO of the two teams, neither were particularly more “lucky” than the other this season. Edmonton had a slightly higher on-ice shooting percentage at even strength, while Anaheim had a slightly higher on-ice save percentage. On paper, the Ducks and Oilers seem to be fairly evenly matched.
Special Teams
Over the course of the regular season, we’re looking at a team with one of the better power plays in the league, and another team with one of the better penalty kills in the league. Edmonton’s power play ranked fifth overall, while Anaheim’s penalty kill ranked fourth.
Through the first round, Anaheim has the worst penalty kill of all playoff teams, while their power play seems to be clicking. On the other hand, Edmonton’s power play has dropped from 22.9% in the regular season to 12.5% in the playoffs. The penalty kill has remained nearly identical for the Oilers.
I would expect that Anaheim’s penalty kill and Edmonton’s power play will both return closer to where they were in the regular season. I have a hard time believing that the Oilers will keep operating at a 12.5% efficiency rate on the man advantage when they managed to sustain a 22.9% power play over 82 games, and I’d be downright shocked if Anaheim’s woeful 62.5% penalty kill doesn’t rebound to something closer to the 84.7% that it was in the regular season.
Season Series Recap
Edmonton won the season series against the Ducks with a 3-2 record. Two of those wins took place on home ice, while the other win and both losses were in enemy territory. Both games at Rogers Place required overtime, with each ending in a 3-2 result to favour the home team.
Ryan Getzlaf had his way with the Oilers in the 2016-17 season to the tune of seven points in five games, including six helpers. Thankfully for Edmonton, the same could be said for the top line of Maroon, McDavid, and Draisaitl, who finished with five, seven, and eight points respectively.
Draisaitl especially proved to be a lethal Duck hunter for Edmonton, scoring at least once in all five meetings between the two teams. Not only that, but the big German was responsible for both overtime markers against Anaheim this year. Coming off a rumoured illness, look for Draisaitl to have an impact series against the Ducks.
Anaheim trade deadline acquisition Patrick Eaves scored in every game that he played against the Oilers this season. The impressively bearded winger scored two goals and added an assist in two games while still with the Dallas Stars, and then another two goals in two games as a Duck.
Cam Talbot wasn’t at his best against Anaheim this season, letting in 12 goals on 122 shots for a .902 save percentage. Talbot was pulled against the Ducks on March 22nd when he let in four goals on 18 shots. Rookie Laurent Brossoit took over for Talbot and didn’t let anything in throughout 26:55 of ice time. Over his career, Talbot has posted a respectable .918 save percentage in nine games versus the Ducks.
Anaheim netminder John Gibson put up a .913 save percentage in the four games that he played against the Oilers this year, while his career save percentage against Edmonton is a frightening .936. Backup Jonathan Bernier played one game versus the Oilers in which he was a .906 save percentage.
The Matchup Game
This is shaping up to be a series where matchups are key, as renowned shutdown centre Ryan Kesler is sure to draw the assignment of covering McDavid. We’ve seen Kesler shutdown some elite pivots in the past, but he hasn’t had to play a seven-game series against a player like Connor McDavid. It’ll be a tough challenge for Connor, but I have confidence in him. I don’t see Kesler, or anyone for that matter, being able to keep up with McDavid’s otherworldly speed.
It seems possible that Anaheim could have two top four defencemen returning from injury, as Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen are both back skating and practicing. That would be quite the injection of talent on a backline that already has the likes of Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson.
With the return of Vatanen and Fowler, we could see the pairing of Lindholm and Manson get reunited, as they have had considerable success as a shutdown tandem for the Ducks. If this happens, look for Lindholm and Manson to get the match against McDavid.
On the other side, Oscar Klefbom was sidelined for the third period of game six against the Shark with an illness. Apparently, it was just the flu, so hopefully Klefbom will be good to go for game one of the series. He’s been (in my opinion) the Oilers best defenceman in the playoffs, and his puck moving and calming presence will be important to Edmonton’s chances of success.
With Kesler and McDavid matching up, that leaves Nugent-Hopkins to cover the Getzlaf line. RNH put in a valiant performance against the Sharks, being hard matched against San Jose’s top line and doing an admirable job. Again, this will be a big challenge for Nuge, as Getzlaf has been on absolute fire as of late.
Getzlaf posted 27 points in the last 18 games of the regular season, and he has five points through four games in the playoffs so far. The massive playmaker will be a significant threat all series long, and the Nugent-Hopkins line will be charged with nullifying his impact.
One thing that concerns me about playing the Ducks is that they’ve been using Corey Perry on the third line. That scares me a bit, because that means the Letestu line would be facing up against Perry. Even if McDavid takes care of the Kesler line, and Nuge handles the Getzlaf line, that still leaves Perry playing against our third line/pairing. Anaheim’s depth will be a major factor in this series.
Quick Hits
- The Ducks are a more well rested team than the Oilers, as they managed to sweep the Flames in four games. As a result, they’ve had six days without a game. Will that lead to rust? Or will they be fresh and on top of their game? I guess you could say that Anaheim have been… sitting Ducks. Sorry, I had to.
- The Oilers on the other hand, took six games to end their series and only had three days to rest up.
- A couple stats I noticed: the Ducks had an on-ice save percentage of .981 at even strength against Calgary, which is pretty high. The Oilers only shot 5.2% at 5v5 against the Sharks (the Ducks shot 9.7% in their series), which is a bit low. These two things combined lead me to believe we could see a rebound both in the Oilers shooting percentage and the Ducks save percentage.
- The Oilers managed to win their series while being outscored 14 to 12. Now, a massive part of this was San Jose’s 7-0 blowout win against Edmonton, but it’s still interesting to note. Anaheim outscored the Flames 14 to nine.
- Ryan Getzlaf is 17-30-47 in 44 career regular season games versus the Oilers. Corey Perry is 23-17-40 in 48 career games.
- Leon Draisaitl has a good, albeit short, track record against the Ducks with 13 points in 12 career games. McDavid has eight in eight versus Anaheim.
- John Gibson is a career .936% against the Oilers in seven games. Cam Talbot is .918 in nine games.
- Maybe Nuge will be able to find the back of the net in this series? He’s posted six goals and eight assists in 20 games against the Ducks.
Closing Thoughts
I’m not going to lie, the Ducks scare me. They’re an experienced team with a lot of depth that have really upped their game in the late season and playoffs when it matters most. I think this Oilers team has what it takes to do it, but it’ll require a lot of things going right. My guess is that we have a long series on our hands.
Thanks for reading!
You can find me on Twitter @SullivanJLarson
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