Outshooting, but not scoring. Golden Bears Update

It was an equally strange weekend as it has been a season so for the University of Alberta Golden Bears. The Bears finished a two-game series against the University of Manitoba Bisons with a 1-1 record despite outshooting their opponents a combined 90-38 (the shots were 45-19 for the Bears each night). The Bears have only been outshot once this season and dominantly outshot the number two ranked team in the country, the University of Saskatchewan Huskies, the previous weekend. Despite this edge, the Bears find themselves with a 6-3 record and 3rd in the Canada West.

The Bears won the Friday night game 3-2 in double overtime and then lost the Saturday game by the same score on a late 3rd period goal by Manitoba.

After the Friday night contest, I began to wonder how a team could seemingly shoot the puck as if in a shooting gallery and yet have the final scores be close. The easy thing to do would be to blame the goaltender. However, Luke Siemens has played well enough to earn a 1.95 GAA and a .918 SP so far this season. The truth is the Bears are having trouble scoring despite the epic shot totals. I wanted to know why.

For the Saturday game I decided to time even-strength possession in the offensive zone for both teams. My method was simple; I had a stop watch in each hand and kept a running total every time either Alberta or Manitoba had possession in the offensive zone at even strength. For this experiment “possession” is defined as the attacking team having clear possession of the puck inside their opponents blue line; scrums along the boards where possession was nebulous were not counted as were times when puck was turned over.

I have started a similar project watching old Red Army/Soviet National teams playing against NHL teams or in the Canada Cup. The results are preliminary, but what I can say is that it appears a team is having a decent game if they can possess the puck in the opponents end 4+ minutes and is having an excellent game at 5+ minutes. Again, I have only tracked a few games so far, but this is what the early results seem to indicate.

I also have to admit there is a level of subjectivity in my method. What appears to be “clear possession” to me may not be the same to someone else. However, the exact number isn’t important; what is important is getting an idea of roughly how long each team is actually in possession of the puck in the attacking zone.

Here are my notes and numbers from the Saturday game:

1st Period

• Shots 12-11 Alberta after 1 period.
• Time of possession (as defined above) was 3:29 for the Golden Bears and 1:04 for the Bisons.
• 2-1 score for Manitoba after 1st.
• Bisons much more efficient and try to make a hard play to get a scoring chance every time they gain possession in Bears zone.
• Golden Bears seem content to hold onto puck in Bisons end and cycle outside away from scoring areas, which has lead to inflated possession time.

 

2nd Period

• Shots 23-14 in favour of Alberta.
• Time of possession (total for two periods) was 6:40 for the Golden Bears and 1:32 for the Bisons.
• Score remained 2-1 for Manitoba.
• Dominant period for Bears in terms of zone time and shots and somewhat better period overall with more chances.
• Still too much play on the periphery and at some point Bears will need to get gritty and drive to net.
• Nice hit in offensive zone by Koper and some nice flashes by Hickmott, Koper, Ferguson, and Reddick.
• Some missed opportunities the Bears need to start burying.
• Had the voice of one of my minor hockey coaches in my head, “quit trying to be cute and shoot the [expletive] puck!”

 

3rd Period

• Shots 45-19 for the Bears.
• Time of possession (total for the game) was 9:35 for the Golden Bears and 2:38 for the Bisons.
• Final score 3-2 for Manitoba.
• Surprisingly gritty goal by Rachinski to tie it with just over two minutes left.
• Complete defensive breakdown lead to Depape scoring the game winner with 12 seconds left.
• Earlier in the period, Depape took a stick blade in the mouth and, to quote Kramer, “he let the expletives fly.” He could be heard through the Clare Drake screaming at the ref, “wake the [expletive] up!”

 

What did I Learn

The biggest takeaway from timing the possession was that it was pretty clear from this game that simply possessing the puck in the offensive end doesn’t necessarily equate to success on the scoreboard or high quality chances. The Bisons seemed content to allow the Bears to hold onto the puck around the perimeter of the offensive zone and allow Alberta to lob in wiffle balls from weak scoring areas at the net. On a number of occasions the Golden Bears didn’t have a player parked in front of the net to get second and third chances off rebounds. Manitoba did an excellent job of keeping the Alberta to the outside and blocking up the shooting lanes. When Manitoba did gain possession in the Bears zone, they had several attacking forwards who were more than willing to make hard and gritty plays to get shots from scoring areas, which was something the Bears were lacking for most of the night.

From a skill standpoint, the Golden Bears are clearly a better team than the Bisons. However, credit to the Bisons as they clearly had a game plan to allow the Bears to dipsy-doodle around on the outside in the offensive zone and Manitoba was the far grittier team when it game to driving to the net. The willingness to play a gritty game to get chances from scoring areas won the night.

Up Next

Next Saturday at 6:00pm at the Clare Drake the Golden Bears take on the University of Calgary Dinos in the second half of a home-and-home weekend series against their provincial rivals. This is one of my favourite games of the season as the old barn is usually packed and the atmosphere is fantastic. If you are on the fence about checking out a Bears game this season, this is the one you should go see.

 

Post Game Show Live from Rich’s Garage

This week in the garage we have two guests, Darren and Jory. We discuss the Golden Bears, the Oilers, and composite versus wood sticks…….

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