Please Welcome Troy Martinson to The Oilers Rig

HUGE news for us here at www.theoilersrig.com, we’ve managed to con Troy Martinson (@heavyoilcountry on twitter) to contributing his fine writing to our site and on to you the readers. For those of you that may not know Troy he used to write for the fine fella’s over at OilonWhyte.com where his writing style made him one of the most read on that site. After a brief hiatus he’s bringing that style over to us here at theOilersRig.com. I’ve personanlly met Troy before and talked about hockey and all things Oil over a few wobbly pops, he’s well informed and fun to listen to and read, so without further ado here is Troy’s first article on the Oilers Rig.

My FAVORITE Number Is 4

I’ve taken a long hiatus from writing & to be honest, it has been too long. We Oilers fans are 5 days away from opening night of the 2013-14 regular season, when the Winnipeg Jets make their long awaited return to Rexall place. March 29, 1996 was the last time the Jets were in Edmonton with the Oilers scoring a 3-2 win. Lots has changed since then including the Jets moving to Phoenix, the expansion of the Atlanta Thrashers, who after drafting highly touted Patrik Stefan #1 overall in 1999, 2 years later drafted Ilya Kovalchuk & 5yrs later,in 2006-07, FINALLY made a playoff appearance, only to get swept in 4 straight games by the New York Rangers. If that wasn’t bad enough, the team was running out of money & were flipped back to Winnipeg on May 31, 2011, some 15yrs later. Finally, the Jets came home.
I’ve been wondering about that 7yrs of waiting that it took the Thrashers to make the playoffs after drafting Stefan #1, so being a fan of hockey & it’s rich history, I decided to dive into the numbers & what I found was interesting.

Below I’ve listed each player chosen #1 at the draft, the team picking & the number of years they had to wait to make the playoffs all the way back 33yrs to 1980. Oddly enough, the Jets selected Dale Hawerchuk with their 1^st pick in 1981. What was weird about the 80’s was that teams who drafted 1^st made the playoffs that same year 8 out of 10 times. Maybe it was a smaller league or some strange drafting rule that I haven’t found yet but in any case, aside from the Penguins in 1984, teams drafting 1^st seemed to be ultra-competitive that same year.

1980 #1 Doug Wickenheiser….. Canadiens… Playoffs = 1YR. (Lost to the Oilers in a best of 3 in 1981!!)
1981 #1 Dale Hawerchuk……….. Jets………….. Playoffs = 1YR
1982 #1 Gord Kluzak……………… Bruins……….. Playoffs =1YR
1983 #1 Brian Lawton…………… North Stars… Playoffs = 1YR
1984 #1 Mario Lemieux………… Penguins……. Playoffs = 5YRS
1985 #1 Wendel Clark………….. Maple Leafs… Playoffs = 1YR
1986 #1 Joe Murphy……………. Red Wings…… Playoffs = 1YR
1987 #1 Pierre Turgeon………. Sabres…………. Playoffs = 1YR
1988 #1 Mike Modano……….. North Stars….. Playoffs = 1YR

Now, for whatever reason, things started to change in 1989. As you can see below, the Nordiques drafted #1, 3 times in a row & after drafting Sundin, waited 4 years to make the playoffs in 1993, a trend that as held true since, 4 years.. Oddly enough, NONE of those 3, 1^st overall picks were around for the 1995 relocation of the Nordiques to Colorado, thus becoming the Avalanche & winning the Stanley Cup that same year. Oh, you might recognize the French guy picked in 1984, Mario Lemieux, whose team oddly enough out of that group, waited 5 years to make the playoffs but in his 7^th year in 1991, won the Stanley Cup. You see, sometimes the numbers just don’t always make sense.

1989 #1 Mats Sundin… Nordiques… Playoffs… 1992-93 = 4YRS
1990 #1 Owen Nolan… Nordiques… Playoffs… 1992-93 = 3YRS
1991 #1 Eric Lindros… Nordiques… Playoffs… 1992-93 = 2YRS

In the early 1990’s expansion teams was all the rage, in large part to the Gretzky for cash deal to the Los Angeles Kings. In little time, 99 became a rockstar in LA, thus putting the sunshine state on the map. What followed was a mass influx of hockey teams in areas of the southern US that were known more for their long island ice teas on the beaches, than ice hockey teams indoors. The San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Mighty Ducks, Tampa Bay Lightning & Florida Panthers all wanted to get a piece of the hockey money pie. Lets just say some of those ventures have turned out better than others. Canada’s capital city got a team as well, or at least the namesake did as the Ottawa Senators, who in 1992, became Canada’s 7^th NHL team playing in Kanata, ON. The NHL moved the aforementioned Jets to of all places, the desert in Phoenix in 1996. Thess new endeavors in the sunshine state & Ottawa turned over many #1 picks. The Lightning drafted Hamrlik in 1992, the Florida Panthers selected Ed Jovanovski in 1994, while the Senators stayed close to the basement in 3 of its first 4 years selecting Daigle in ’93, Berard in ’95 & Phillips in ’96. All 3 of these teams made the playoffs within the 1^st 4 years, not bad for a couple of expansion franchises. In only 2 years in the league, the Panthers making an unlikely run (against another team that waited 4 years after their 1^st #1 pick) to the Stanley Cup final, losing to the just moved Avalanche in 4 straight games. Quite a script, isn’t it?

1992 #1 Roman Hamrlik… Lightning (1992-93 Expansion year)….. Playoffs… 1995-96 =4YRS
1993 #1 Alexander Daigle… Senators (1992-93 Expansion year)… Playoffs…1996-97 = 4YRS
1994 #1 Ed Jovanovski… Panthers (1993-94 Expansion year)……..Playoffs… 1995-96 = 2YRS
1995 #1 Bryan Berard…………………………………Senators…….. Playoffs… 1996-97 = 2YRS
1996 #1 Chris Phillips…………………………………Senators………Playoffs…1996-97 = 1 YR

The Bruins, after selecting Joe Thornton #1 in 1997 made a 31 point turn around in the standings & made the playoffs that same year, a feat that hadn’t been done (although the Senators technically made the playoffs the previous year after chosing Phillips #1, they had already chosen 1^st 2 of the 3 years prior to that) in 1988 when Mike Modano went 1^st overall to the North Stars. What was even more odd about the Bruins turn around is that it was their OTHER 1^st round pick Sergei Samsonov, who was chosen 8^th overall & won the Calder Trophy as best rookie that same year. Samsonov to Hemsky will always hold a place in my heart as 1 of the best passes in Oilers playoff history.
Another French guy, Vincent Lecavalier was picked #1 in 1998 after a 17 win season by the Lightning. They stumbled around for 5 more years (a stretch not seen by a team picking #1 in 19yrs, RE: Penguins in 1984) before making the playoffs in 2003 & ended up winning the Stanley Cup the following season in 2004, his 6^th year in the league.

1997 #1 Joe Thornton…………….. Bruins… Playoffs… 1997-98 = 1 YR
1998 #1 Vincent Lecavalier… Lightning… Playoffs… 2002-03 = 5YRS

The newest expansion team to return to the league in 1999 were the Atlanta Thrashers, who selected Patrik Stefan #1 overall. Two years later in 2001, the Thrashers chose dominate elite power forward Ilya Kovalchuk #1. It wasn’t until the 2007 playoffs that the team finally made the playoffs, getting swept 4-0 by the New York Rangers. Those 7 years of waiting by the Thrashers remain as the modern day record longest streak to miss the playoffs by a team selecting #1.
What did they achieve for those efforts?? You’re going to Winnipeg!
Rick DiPietro became the first goalie in NHL history to be selected #1 overall in 2000 by the Islanders. Rumor has it that DiPietro received his 1^st injury after leaving the stage after the selection but my sources can neither confirm nor deny that rumor. On a serious note, the Islanders did make the playoffs in 2002, but DiPietro missed that entire season.
In 2002, the Blue Jackets drafted Rick Nash & 6yrs later made the playoffs only to be swept 4 straight by the Red Wings. So within a span of 10yrs from 1999 to 2009, the foursome of Stefan, DiPietro, Kovalchuk & Nash were #1 picks & NONE except for DiPietro (2wins) felt what it was like to win a playoff game.

1999 #1 Patrik Stefan… Thrashers (1999-2000 expansion year)… Playoffs… 2006-07 = 7YRS
2000 #1 Rick DiPietro… Islanders….………………………………………….. Playoffs… 2001-02 = 2YRS
2001 #1 Ilya Kovalchuk… Thrashers………………………………………….. Playoffs… 2006-07 = 5YRS
2002 #1 Rick Nash… Blue Jackets (2000-01 Expansion year)………Playoffs…2008-09= 6YRS

Although 2003 may go down as the strongest draft ever, Fleury may become the worst pick in that draft with a Cup. The list below is the that of which we Oilers fans need to pay attention to.

2003 #1 Marc-Andre Fleury… Penguins… Playoffs… 2007-08 = 4YRS + CUP
2004 #1 Alex Ovechkin… Capitals…… Playoffs… 2007-08 = 3YRS
2005 #1 Sidney Crosby…………. Penguins…. Playoffs… 2007-08 = 3YRS + CUP
2006 #1 Erik Johnson…. Blues…….… Playoffs… 2008-09 = 3YRS
2007 #1 Patrick Kane……………………………Blackhawks………Playoffs… 2008-09 = 2YRS + CUP, 6YRS + CUP
2008 #1 Steven Stamkos..Lightning… Playoffs… 2010-11 = 3YRS
2009 #1 John Tavares… Islanders… Playoffs… 2012-13 = 4YRS
2010 #1 Ta
ylor Hall………….Oilers…………..…Playoffs ??? 2013-14 = IN YEAR 4……..
2011 #1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins..…Oilers… Playoffs???
2012 #1 Nail Yakupov…………….. Oilers… Playoffs???
2013 #1 Nathan MacKinnon… Avalanche… Playoffs???

In the past 33yrs (32 seasons of hockey) there have been 32 #1 picks.
Of which 10 have made the playoffs in their 1^st year (8 of those between 1980 & 1989). I still can’t figure out why it took Mario & his Penguins 5 years to make the playoffs after his draft year?
Since 1989 however;
2- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 1
5- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 2
5- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 3
6- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 4
3- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 5 (including Mario from ’84, Lecavalier in ’98 & Kovalchuk in ‘01)
1- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 6 (Nash with the Blue Jackets)
1- #1 picks made the playoffs in year 7 (Stefan with the Thrashers)

I think it’s evident the predominate number here is 4 & with the Oilers having 3 consecutive #1 picks, it’s a safe bet to assume the playoffs are coming, sooner than later. Coincidentally enough, Taylor Hall wears #4 not to mention he’s entering his 4^th year in the league, which finishes in 2014. Oh, while I’m at it, another 4, Bobby Orr, had his BEST year & won his 1^st Stanley Cup, in yep, you guessed it, his 4^th year in the league. So based on these numbers, mixed with a lot of history I’m dropping the hammer here, the Oilers will make the playoffs, Hall will score 40+ goals, finish top 4 in scoring & receive 4 votes as league MVP. If the Oilers only happen to play 4 playoff games this year, I could live with that. If by chance this doesn’t happen, there are a couple of names in that 5 year slot that know a thing or 2 about winning.

Thanks for reading!

TroyM

Follow me on the twitterverse: @heavyoilcountry