The one-percenter prospects are players that have a one percent chance of making a long career in the NHL. The majority of these players will have to find work as a hockey player either oversees or in a lesser north american league.
It was difficult to cut certain players off the “in-betweeners” and there’s a very good chance that I will be completely wrong on a player or two. There’s a few flyers here, with especially the first guy on the list very possibly becoming a bonafide top four defenseman, but in his first pro-season, there’s a lot of unexplained questions.
THE ONE PERCENTERS
#16 D Dillon Simpson, 2011 Draft 92nd overall
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 59GP 2-14-16 +3
Simpson has a bright future, so why is he on this list in particular??? Put it this way: I wish I could change my list after reading about his progress. However, since I intend to live and die by my original list, i’ll say that it’s Simpson’s modest college career coupled with a poor developmental NHL team that will contribute to his pitfalls.
The 22-year-old likely won’t rear his true form until his 24th year, and for some reason I think he’s a lot like Taylor Fedun. Fedun left as a free agent and at 26 years of age, he is back to full-time AHL status after his NHL cups of coffee last year.
UPSIDE: Top 6 NHL Defenseman
WORST-CASE: AHLer
#17 D Jordan Oesterle, Free Agent Signing
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 54GP 7-15-22 +4
Edmonton Oilers (NHL) 6GP 0-1-1 -4
The Oilers have found useful players for their minor league program via free agency in the college pool. Oesterle is the latest. His progress has been decent to the point that he got a chance on a depleted blueline.
Oesterle was exposed as not being NHL-ready but the fact that he was called up shows the Oilers like this kid. I’m just not a big believer in late bloomers.
UPSIDE: Spare NHL blueliner
WORST-CASE: ECHLer
#18 LW Mitch Moroz, 2012 Draft 32nd overall
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 54GP 3-3-6 -10
I had high expectations for Moroz this year and I think that has something to do with his poor ranking. Well that and the fact that his first pro season has been mainly a poor step in his development.
Moroz is a player I got to watch with my own eyes various times and I really thought he had Milan Lucic potential. Moroz still plays a heavy game so he has a chance at an NHL career, but we’ll have to see vast improvement next season.
UPSIDE: Milan Lucic light
WORST-CASE: Cameron Abney clone.
#19 RW Jackson Houck, 2013 Draft 94th overall
Vancouver Giants (WHL) 65GP 22-29-51 -9
Houck had a great season following his draft year and I had hopes he would improve on those numbers. He took a step back in his production and I believe if a player doesn’t progress in junior he doesn’t deserve an NHL contract.
Considering Roy, Platzer, Laleggia, Betker and others need contracts, I find Houck to be the odd-man out.
UPSIDE: AHL scorer or KHL scorer
WORST-CASE: Retiree
#20 D David Musil, 2011 Draft 31st overall
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 57GP 1-8-9 +4
Musil is a player that can easily make an NHL career in the mould of Mark Fayne, Scott Hannan and Shane O’Brien. Guys that can be relied on in a bottom pairing role. The problem with Musil is the fact that he’s been passed on the depth chart by 6th round pick Brandon Davidson.
Musil still has a year and will likely get a second contract because of his pedigree but a lot still has to go right to make an NHL career.
UPSIDE: 7th NHL d-man
WORST-CASE: Theo Peckham
#21 D Ben Betker, 2013 Draft 158th overall
Everett Silvertips (WHL) 64GP 6-25-31 +19
A late round pick, Betker has everything going for him in his final junior season. Betker has progressed every year and he will likely pass Musil on this list as he turns pro. Until he does that though, it’s hard to get a read on him.
I thought Betker looked really good during the Oilers’ rookie camp and he showed he can actually skate rather well for a big guy. He’s earned a contract in my opinion and he has the best chance of moving into the next prospect group.
UPSIDE: NHL defenseman
WORST-CASE: Fizzles out as a pro
#22 D Martin Gernat, 2011 Draft 122nd overall
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 54GP 1-8-9 +1
As you can tell, I believe that progress should continue before a player sees the big leagues and in Gernat’s case, he’s headed in the wrong direction. Gernat had a solid pro year but has taken two big steps backward to the point that he’s not even producing anymore.
The Slovak will need to have a decent bounce-back year next season or else he won’t see a second contract from the Oilers.
UPSIDE: AHL top-pairing, Slovakian olympian
WORST-CASE: We’ve seen his best
#23 RW Andrew Miller, Free Agent Signing
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 58GP 25-31-56 +12
Edmonton Oilers (NHL) 2GP 0-0-0 -3
Yet another late bloomer, Miller is currently in the NHL and I got to see with my own eyes (as I was at the Oilers/Flyers game on Saturday) that this player has genuine offensive abilities. I just don’t think he’s an NHL player.
Miller is 26-years-old and will not be considered a prospect for next season. He earned a second contract and I believe this guy could be the next Darren Haydar in the minors. I hope he enjoys Bakersfield next season.
UPSIDE: Darren Haydar
WORST-CASE: Ryan Potulny
#24 G Frans Tuohimaa, 2011 Draft 182nd overall
Bakersfield Condors (ECHL) 33GP 11-15-4 3.28, .876 SV%
Oklahoma City Barons (AHL) 3GP 2-0-1 4.22, .904 SV%
Goalies come from every possible angle in the NHL draft, so any goalie is worth keeping an eye on. The Oilers chose to sign Tuohimaa in favour of 3rd round pick Samu Perhonen and it’s not looking good currently.
Tuohimaa is having trouble in the ECHL and will more than likely head for his home country next season. Perhonen is improving over there. Go figure
UPSIDE: Backup in Finland
WORST-CASE: Backup in Italy
#25 G Zach Nagelvoort, 2014 Draft 111th overall
U. of Michigan (Big-10) 22GP 11-9-0 2.63, .0-6 SV%
It may be too early to completely evaluate Nagelvoort and there’s every chance he becomes a goalie to watch in the future. Nagelvoort has seen his numbers drop from impressive 2.20, .929 to 2.63, .906.
It’s been said that former goalie coach Frederic Chabot has a huge player in drafting this guy, and we know how accountable Chabot is.
UPSIDE: NHL/AHL fringe goalie
WORST-CASE: Goes unsigned
NEXT: Fillers and busts
THE LIST
1. Leon Draisaitl
2. Darnell Nurse
3. Laurent Brossoit
4. Bogdan Yakimov
5. Kyle Platzer
6. Anton Slepyshev
7. Joey Laleggia
8. Greg Chase
9. William Lagesson
10. Brandon Davidson
11. Marco Roy
12. Iiro Pakarinen
13. Jujhar Khaira
14. Tyler Pitlick
15. Curtis Hamilton
16. Dillon Simpson
17. Jordan Oesterle
18. Mitch Moroz
19. Jackson Houck
20. David Musil
21. Ben Betker
22. Martin Gernat
23. Andrew Miller
24. Frans Tuohimaa
25. Zach Nagelvoort
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