Premature Evaluation: Edmonton Oilers 2016-17 Edition

There’s a spectacular disease that we don’t talk much about, but perhaps we should. Oil Country is going through an epidemic of what James Duthie coined as PE, or Premature Evaluation. It’s common during the preseason for hockey fans across the continent to show symptoms of PE. Today in Oil Country, people who suffer from PE are worried about Cam Talbot, The Looch-Connor-Ebs line, the PK and the PP.

WHAT IS PE??

James Duthie describes PE in his brilliant book The Day I (Almost) Killed Two Gretzkys;

PE is hardly a new problem. Rushing to judgement is human nature. We hope (Flames fans) or fear (Leaf fans) that what we’ve seen in one week might just be the reality of the next six months…PE has now reached full pandemic status. We live in a bubble of endless blogs, tweets, “long-time listener, first-time caller” radio shows and TV hockey panels that crave instant and definitive analysis. We want judgements handed down NOW, even if we’ve only seen a tiny fragment of evidence. -James Duthie

WHAT ARE SOME OF THE PREMATURE EVALUATIONS IN OIL COUNTRY?

Issue number one: Connor McDavid and Milan Lucic don’t click.
The evidence: Connor McDavid and Milan Lucic have now played two full preseason games together. After they were unable to produce any points against the Vancouver Canucks, it seemed as if these two players were not fit to play together and that Lucic was a bust. One game in. After last night’s performance against the Kings for Kraft Hockeyville, some of those naysayers had regrets as McDavid totally manhandled the Kings inexperienced defense, and Lucic seemed to find some chemistry alongside him.
The verdict: Lucic is too damn good to not find a way to gel with Connor. These two will be fine come October 12

Issue number two: Cam Talbot is looking shaky.
The evidence: Talbot has not performed like a number one goaltender so far in the preseason. In fact, Talbot currently holds a ghastly .794 save percentage. That is horrible. Talbot looked like a fish out of water in his full game against the Winnipeg Jets, but the team did take some bad penalties and gave up grade A scoring chances. I tweeted that Talbot absolutely has to be better and he does, but this doesn’t mean he’ll have a slumping season.
The verdict: If Talbot is still playing poorly by the second week of the season, then there’s some concern. Talbot did struggle in first two months of the season last year before finding his groove around the same time Anders Nilsson lost his.

Issue number three: The special teams are pitiful.
The evidence: After the Jets game, Oil Country was in turmoil bleeding from the same wounds that have scarred us throughout the years. The team took too many penalties, had too many defensive lapses, couldn’t get any saves, and the special teams were absolutely demolished by a more prepared and experienced Jets team. Mark Letestu was likely the only player on the penalty kill who had some type of success. The power play was also reportedly pitiful. It’s been noted by a few different writers that Milan Lucic may not be a fit on the first power play unit which is a little disappointing.
The verdict: The preseason is where you work out the kinks. Some players that weren’t getting it done on the special teams won’t play on them, and the Oilers will use the rest of the preseason to nail down which players will play which roles.

PUMP THE BRAKES

While the PE is normally used to describe the negative, there is some positive PE as well.

Laurent Brossoit has looked good and has outperformed both Cam Talbot and Jonas Gustavsson, but that doesn’t mean he is the guy who will be starting October 12. While Peter Chiarelli stated that Brossoit will get every opportunity to win the backup job, I believe the team would prefer to have him play 50+ in Bakersfield instead of riding pine behind Cam Talbot.

Drake Caggiula is another player who has turned heads. The production has been there, his two-way game is mature, and for a guy that played the wing in college, he has impressed in the face-off circle. Caggiula has done enough to earn the 3C job, giving the Oilers the option to move Leon Draisaitl to the wing in the top six likely flanking Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. However, Jesse Joensuu and Anton Lander have had similar preseasons only to falter once the regular season started.

It’s important to know that preseason hockey is just preseason hockey. The intensity isn’t the same. The kinks have not been worked out. Adjustments will be made. Team’s will ice better lineups come October 12.

It’s best to not make any judgements until at least 10 games into the regular season. Don’t give in to the symptoms of PE. We can stop PE together. Join the fight against PE and hold your judgements until at least November.