Preseason Predictions – Oilers 2016/2017 Part One

For the last few years I have run projections over at Flamesnation, first on the Flames then last season on the Canucks, Flames and Oilers.

This year I have run those same projections, with a few extra additions, on those same teams and have posted the Oilers’ results here.

Please note, this is a mathematical exercise. I try to remain objective and neutral as best I can.

Here’s the process:

I begin by using past NHL seasons (or NHLEs as applicable) to determine an estimate on the points-per-game for each player on the listed roster. I then extend that to the most likely call-up candidates within the organization who will fill the approximate number of man games required both at forward and defense.

Next I will estimate, again based on an average adjusted to circumstance over previous seasons, the number of games each player on the listed roster is likely to play in that season, topping it up to within a reasonable margin with the call-up candidates mentioned above.

That gives me a rough estimate of the total number of points the team is likely to score.

I analyze each skater’s strengths and weaknesses and try to describe their likely and/or ideal deployment.

I then estimate, using similar methods, the games played and save percentage for the goalies. I estimate, based on previous seasons and adjusting approximately based on the relative strength of the defense corps, the number of shots that each goalie will face in a game (I have noticed that backup goalies will often face roughly 1 fewer shot per game than the starter as teams may play more cautiously in front of a backup). Calculating those shots against the estimated save percentage, I can then deduce a goals-against-per-game.

I then rank the estimated number of goals scored based on where that total would land in the standings from the previous season. I do the same with the goals-against per game.

Using the goals-against and save percentage, I see what teams had that same number and record their winning percentage.

I apply that winning percentage to the number of games each goalie is estimated to play, and calculate the points that would result.

Taking that information, the rank of goals scored and goals against and finally making small adjustments for depth as it relates to the potential for injury, I arrive at an estimate of where I believe the team is most likely to finish the season. I emphasize most likely, because these are meant to be estimates and approximations only and there are myriad unforeseen circumstances that can affect a team’s performance.

I typically take a wide assortment of statistical categories into account when researching each team, including shooting percentage, points per game, games played, TOI, IPP, PDO and more recently DFF% relative to competition (thanks to Woodguy and GMoney for their work in establishing this metric and their help in explaining to me), and expected goals for and against.

We’ll begin with the majority of the data I’ve collected, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica.hockey, BecauseOilers, Oilers Nerd Alert, Elite Prospects and NHL.com. We proceed alphabetically by the player’s last name.

There is a lot to cover so I’ve broken it up into several smaller pieces, and will post them as part of a series.

Below is a table of some of my accumulated data (click to enlarge).

We’ll begin with a few of the forwards, alphabetically by last name (click to enlarge).

Leon Draisaitl – General concensus is that Hall took Draisaitl along for the ride last season. I don’t believe this to be the case. Hall may have been carrying Draisaitl to some extent, but the big German was as light as a feather as far as linemates go. Draisaitl played extraordinarily well against all levels of opposition in the DFF category. His IPP was astonishingly high – the highest of any player with a significant sample size that I have examined amongst the three teams. It exceeds Hall’s IPP by 0.2. The only players in this exercise to exceed him were Kassian, Pakarinen, Hunter Shinkaruk, and Jayson Megna. As the song goes, one of these things is not like the other. Draisaitl was the only one of those four facing elite level competition and statistically co-piloting the bus. Lest anyone think that perhaps this was unsustainable, he finished the season with a 999 PDO, meaning his play is most likely within the realm of repeatability.

In addition to the many other categories I’ve examined, I looked at the expected goals for and the expected goals against. This category, when tied to the DFF competition stats, PDO, TOI and general possession metrics gives us a fairly good picture of what a player contributes versus what they give up. Draisaitl posted a 0.41 xGF/60 advantage, meaning he creates nearly half a goal extra for every 60 minutes played over what he surrenders. To put that in context, that is higher than Jordan Eberle and every single returning player on the Flames and Canucks. Yes, even Johnny Gaudreau.

I’ve projected him to play nearly a complete season this year (79 games) and to find a middle ground from his 0.7 point per game pace from last season (floated by an unsustainable early half) settling in at 0.6 ppg and register 47 points on the season. It could well be higher, but I generally err on the side of caution.

Jordan Eberle – He registered 47 points in 69 games for a 0.68 ppg pace but most fans would probably say Eberle had a disappointing season last year. This is most likely the result of his early-season injury and the overall disappointment by the team as a whole.

Eberle rates very well against either elite or middle tier competition in the DFF metric. Todd McLellan appears to have put him against the middle tier more often than the elite tier, but in either case he created more chances than he gave up.

His IPP was still very high, meaning he was directly involved in a great share of the offense while he was on the ice.

Until and unless Jesse Puljujarvi emerges as a better option, Jordan Eberle is the beneficiary of largely uncontested ice time on the right wing due to lack of established depth. He remains an unassailable hurdle for Nail Yakupov. As a result, and in concert with the Oilers finally having depth down the middle for the first time in nearly 25 years, Eberle can expect to be productive almost regardless of his linemates shift-to-shift.

I’ve estimated Eberle plays 77 games, recovers his ppg pace and registers 62 points on the season.

*NB – With the recent signing of Kris Versteeg to a PTO, there is a possibility that the depth chart on the right side will change. I will address this later in the series when we arrive at Versteeg/Yakupov.

Matt Hendricks – Deployed primarily as a 4^th line option, Hendricks appears to have lost that matchup more often than not last season. I believe we are seeing the final stages of his NHL career, though we can bet he will fight through another season or two before departing the NHL stage.

Hendricks gives up too much offense against relative to what he can contribute for him to be considered a consistent or long-term option. However, he is a useful penalty killer and does well on the forecheck. My expectation is that Chiarelli explores interest at the trade deadline.

I have him playing 59 games this season, finishing with 11 points.

Zack Kassian – Kassian is a complementary winger who must have strong linemates with which to play in order to find success. He cannot play in a depth role as he lacks the necessary defensive refinements to succeed in that role. I believe this is why, when his offensive game dropped off and his ice time diminished, other organizations soured on him as he requires dedicated ice time with your better players to be productive. Couple this with his own responsibility to find ways to remain consistent and develop a more well-rounded game, and then the story of his career seems a very familiar one.

His DFF numbers show someone who can play against the elite, but struggles mightily against the lesser competitors, and I expect this is due to the quality of his linemates as well as his own two-way play.

He gives up too much in offense going the other way by the xGF/60 metric to be a likely long-term option unless he can improve the two-way aspect of his game and focus on becoming an effective depth winger. Otherwise he will continue to search out work in the professional leagues on short-term contracts for teams whose options in the top six positions are limited.

I’ve estimated Kassian plays 50 games, recording 17 points this season.

Anton Lander – This player represents the face of disappointment perhaps more so than any other save Nail Yakupov. Lander appears on the surface to be an ideal depth forward, a capable scorer in the AHL, with refined defensive awareness, decent size, not fast but quick enough, and competent in the faceoff circle.

And yet.

He appears to do well enough against the bottom tier of competition in the DFF metric, but his IPP number suggests that he is twice as likely to NOT be involved in any offense that happens to occur while he is on the ice. And his defensive game, one area where one might hope he could show some acumen, is generally sunk as a result of his inability to post any offense whatsoever.

Virtually all of his numbers save DFF bear a notable similarity to Mark Letestu.

I’m projecting him to play 50 games, registering 8 points. I believe this will be his last season with Edmonton.

Mark Letestu – Speaking of disappointment. Letestu spent most of his time last season playing middle and bottom tier competition and did rather poorly against them by the DFF metric. His IPP number suggests someone whose offensive contributions could be determined as consistently as if they were done by the flip of a coin as anything the player could manage. Perhaps that is harsh, but he registered 25 points last year and a good portion of that seemed to come by playing the net-front presence on the power play.

Craig MacTavish once said that a player needs to be a threat to score at least some of the time. Mark Letestu does not appear to be that player. Perhaps he will recover.

I’ve projected him to play the majority of the season as coaches love veterans and Letestu, if not an offensive contributor, is at least consistent in this regard and he represents one thing the Oilers do not have much of down the middle: experience. 73 games, 26 points.

Milan Lucic – The player type the Oilers have essentially been chasing since Mark Messier left town – a big skilled player who can beat you either on the scoreboard or by adjusting the feng shui of your orbital bone.

Lucic comes out of most analytics metrics looking quite good. Effective in the DFF metrics across the board, logs a fair bit of ice time, a relatively high shooting percentage, and a phenomenal expected goals differential of 0.81, meaning he outscores what he surrenders by 0.81 goals for every 60 minutes played. Recall what I said about Draisaitl in this regard and now understand that Lucic doubles that within an established career.

The only aspect where he seems to lag behind some of the others we’re examining is his IPP, which is 64.5%.

I have estimated Lucic plays 81 games (the missing 1 as likely to be a suspension as an injury), recording 57 points, two more than his total last season.

Next time we’ll continue with our list, beginning with Patrick Maroon.

Comments and questions are welcome below or to me directly via twitter @codexrex.

Thank you for reading!