Punxsutawney Sandy

We recently passed by the time of year where Sandy Alderson comes out of the ground, sees his shadow, and predicts a 90 win season. Well this year, he didn’t see his shadow so he only predicted 89.

I’m not here to fan any flames. I don’t do it just to do it. But I would like to make an observation that I would have made a few days ago save for the fact that I’ve gotten lazy in my old age. I thought that last season’s 90-win proclamation was a whole lotta consternation over nothing. He said it in a private room to his bosses, and I don’t know what you would want him to tell his bosses. This season is a little different in that … yes, I don’t know what you want Sandy Alderson to tell Chris Russo either. But with this season’s outlook, Alderson at least provided some context:

“We won 79 games last year, which was an improvement over the year before. We need to take a bigger jump next season. One of the reasons we’ve been quiet in the offseason is that we have quality players at every position. They’re not all proven above-average major league players, but we’re at the point now where we have to give them the opportunity to perform. Travis d’Arnaud behind the plate took some big steps forward last year, Lucas Duda at first base, in the outfield Juan Lagares, and then of course the young pitching that we have. Most of our bullpen is fairly young. So one of the reasons we’ve been fairly quiet is that we’ve got players with the potential to improve us by 10 games, which is what we need …”

I don’t mean to get all “hot-takey” on you, but I feel the need to be a little serious after I basically compared Alderson to a groundhog so here goes: For the first time since he took the job, Sandy Alderson has moved the target to his own back. And he did it with that one statement. It’s easy to blame the owners and their lack of cash flow. (It just came out today that the Madoff settlement is down to $75 million, but they will still be paying through 2017 so don’t forget this when you wonder why the Mets aren’t spending any money the next two seasons either.) But it’s frustrating nonetheless to see a team like the Padres go hog wild during the offseason (capping it off with the James Shields signing on Monday)

Now here’s the thing with the Padres: Baseball history is littered with teams that try to buy an instant title like it was mashed potato flakes they were buying in the instant foods aisle (see Scott Boras, I can make food comparisons too.) The 1993 Mets … the 2012 Marlins … the 2013 Blue Jays … on and on. And I’m not entirely sure that the Padres will be seriously in the mix for a playoff spot (though Shields really helps.) But it’s interesting to put the Mets and Padres side-by-side: the Mets with 79 wins, the Padres with 77 in 2014, both teams 17 games behind the leader in their division. The Mets were only able to get past San Diego with a 17-10 September while the Padres went 13-14, which is vaguely important in its unimportance (if that makes sense) as September numbers are the ones you never want to completely trust.

While the Mets started with a slightly stronger foundation of pitching which would eliminate the need for an all out overhaul, and that they are definitely an organization that seems ready to make a jump with what they have, it’s disappointing that the Mets hardly did anything to support the effort to go to the next level. Meanwhile, the Padres have done the exact opposite after having less to work with. The right answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

But for Alderson … now that he has explained why he feels he didn’t have to make many moves, he had better be right. Whether he really believes what he said or whether it’s under the guise of fostering confidence up and down the roster (or whether it’s more covering for a lack of “payroll flexibility“), it’s on Sandy now. If a team whose win totals have began with a 7 for six seasons is really good enough to improve by ten wins with one acquisition which you may generously describe as major, then more power to him. It will have meant that everything that the Mets are counting on to go right will have gone right. It’s a familiar battlecry, isn’t it? “If everything goes right.” If that young bullpen stays consistent … If Jacob deGrom doesn’t have a sophomore slump … If the hiring of Kevin Long will have a tangible impact on Curtis Granderson’s numbers … If Matt Harvey bucks the trend of pitchers with Tommy John surgery taking a full season to get back to full capacity … If David Wright returns to his All-Star form … If Lucas Duda can prove to be more than a one season wonder … Oh yeah. It will all go right. Who needs outside help, right?

He’d better be right.