Refining the Oil: Part 1

Are the Oilers a playoff team?

They’ve done an okay job recently, despite several key injuries. Last night’s game was an example of this – outside of a failed backcheck and a couple other breakdowns, they played well enough to win, but couldn’t cash. When healthy, they’ve been very good.

As I pointed out in my last article, this team is much, much better this season. They are balanced, they have scoring options up and down the lineup, and their blueline is as good as we’ve seen since the Kevin Lowe days (love or hate him, the man knew how to build a D-corps).

But is the ultimate goal merely to get into the playoffs?

I’d argue the Orange and Blue should set their sights higher, in order to maximize the benefit of Connor McDavid’s ELC. If the Stanley Cup is their goal, as it should be, they will need upgrades in two spots for sure, maybe three. Last night only confirmed this.

Stanley Cup?

Let me be clear – I am not saying the Oilers are currently a contender. I’m saying that that should be their focus. Yes, even this season.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Maybe, but hear me out.

Connor McDavid is in year 2 of his 3 year Entry Level Contract. Even if he elects to sign a bridge deal until the next CBA is settled, now is the best time for the Oilers to commit to winning a championship.

McDavid’s next deal is going to be in the $9M-$10M range. A bridge deal could be in the $7M range. His ELC gives the Oil the cap flexibility to bring in some serious help.

So this year and next, the Oilers need to get serious about Stanley. The window is at its widest and they should do everything they can to make it count.

Upgrade the RW

If the vision is to roll 3 scoring lines, each with one of McDavid, Nuge, or Draisaitl up the middle, I’m good with that.

But then RW becomes an area in need of a skill upgrade. Versteeg should have been this option, but he made it sound like he was told he might not be in the lineup every night.

Currently the depth chart looks like: Eberle, Puljujarvi, Kassian, Pitlick, Slepyshev. Puljujarvi is simply too inconsistent at this point, even though he looks like he’ll become an absolute monster. After him you have 3^rd and 4^th line guys, though one wonders what Slepyshev could look like on a skill line. Pitlick is also showing an early scoring touch and that should be noted.

Regardless, the need is this: a 2^nd line RW who can drop to the 3^rd line if Puljujarvi hits his stride. Think of a Justin Williams type.

Upgrade the D

The Oilers blueline is in a little bit of trouble right now, thanks to the injury bug. It’s a huge disappointment we haven’t really seen Brandon Davidson yet, and the injury to the Most Controversial Man in the World™ (Kris Russell) has left a noticeable void on the back end.

Now, that’s not all bad, as we’ve seen immensely encouraging performances from Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning. But it has pointed out a need for depth.

Wait. We have 6, maybe 7, competent defencemen for the first time in a decade and we still need depth?

Yes. Especially necessary is depth on the right side. Currently the right side depth chart looks like: Adam Larsson, Mark Fayne, Eric Gryba, Matt Benning. A 1^st pair shutdown defender, a solid 4 (whom the coach hates), and two 7s.

There’s a couple things we need to recognize:

1. Even when healthy, Mark Fayne is unlikely to break into the top 4 under Todd McLellan; in fact, he may not even break into the top 6 on a regular basis. I don’t agree with it, but here we are.
2. This team has no offensive weapons on the blueline. To one degree or another, this has a negative impact on the PP.
3. Oscar Klefbom may need his minutes dialed back a touch, at least for a little while, to allow him to adjust to top-pairing demands. Perhaps a break from the powerplay would do him good.

So, the need on D? An offensively minded defenceman, preferably a powerplay specialist. Think of Mark Streit.

Note: Believe it or not, Justin Schultz was very good on the PP in his early Oiler days. Trending towards elite, even. Oh well.

3^rd Need?

I know there are a lot of people who are big fans of Kris Russell, and honestly, I believe he’s added a lot to this team.

But, in my mind, the slot he fills on the blueline is in need of improvement. This is no indictment of Russell as he’s done a good job in an immensely difficult role; in fact, I think the Oil could see a ton of success this year with him in that slot.

Yes, the Pittsburgh Penguins showed last year that it’s possible to win a Stanley Cup without an optimal Top 6, and that tempers my criticism.

What I’d like to suggest is this: acquiring a right-shooting defenceman who is better than Russell would balance and improve the blueline considerably.

So, I suggest a need which is not a desperate need, and not nearly as glaring as the other two:

An upgrade at 2RD. Jacob Trouba?

Yes, you may even think of Brent Burns (though he’d be a #1). Dare to dream, Arnold.

More to Come

Well? What options are out there?

How can this all fit under the cap?

Is there any dead weight the Oil can cut off?

Should they seek developing talent or players that have already made a name for themselves?

That’s what I’ll be looking into for future installments in this series. See ya then!