The All-Star Break is here and now is as good a time as any to revisit the New York Mets’ preseason predictions. Expectations were high for the Mets at the beginning of the campaign but the first 90 games have not gone according to plan. As we await the start of the second half, let’s look back at 10 questions we asked prior to the season to try and figure out what has gone wrong to this point.
1. Did The Mets Add Enough Offense?
What We Said Then: The failure to close the Carlos Correa deal left the Mets looking like they needed another bat but GM Billy Eppler didn’t add anyone bigger than Tommy Pham in free agency. Prospects Brett Baty, Mark Vietnos and Francisco Alvarez will begin the season at AAA Syracuse, leaving the offense looking very similar to the one that ended last year in a power slump.
What Actually Happened: This was a clear miss on Eppler’s part but Baty and Alvarez have quickly taken spots in the every day lineup. Pham has also proven useful after supplanting Mark Canha as starting left fielder but it took nearly two months for the offense to get into a more consistent groove with power.
2. How will the Mets replace Edwin Diaz?
What We Said Then: Diaz’s injury in the World Baseball Classic changes the outlook of the bullpen completely. David Robertson will likely get the bulk of the save chances but that will move everyone else up in the pecking order, which could leave the unit an arm short in the late innings.
What Actually Happened: Robertson has done an admirable job succeeding Diaz but the cascading effect of Diaz’s absence has severely shortened the Mets’ bullpen, exposing the lack of proven depth Eppler added for the unit in the interest of having optionable arms.
3. Can the co-aces stay healthy?
What We Said Then: The Mets are making a big bet with veteran aces in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, both of whom will be over the age of 38 at the start of the season. Both aces can be very effective when they’re healthy but expecting both to provide 200 innings may not be realistic.
What Actually Happened: The aces didn’t even make it to Opening Day together as Verlander missed a month with a teres major strain and struggled to get into a groove upon his return. Scherzer has made most of his starts but dealt with a neck issue, a sticky substance ban, and back spasms while failing to effectively utilize his slider for most of the season.
4. When will the Mets give their prospects a shot?
What We Said Then: Baty, Vientos and Alvarez could all provide a significant offensive boost when given a shot at AAA. Alvarez still has work to do defensively behind the plate but the other two could be up quickly if they get off to hot starts while veterans like Eduardo Escobar and Daniel Vogelbach don’t.
What Actually Happened: An injury to Omar Narvaez forced the Mets to go to Alvarez within a week and it paid dividends while Baty’s hot start at AAA helped him supplant a slumping Escobar at third base. Vientos got a call-up in mid-May but was given surprisingly little run by manager Buck Showalter, leading to inconsistent results and a return to AAA in mid-June.
5. How will the new schedule format impact the Mets?
What We Said Then: The Mets will play every team for at least three games this season, which means less games against the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, which is a positive. Losing six games with the Nationals should balance out with games against mediocre American League teams so the situation should be a net positive.
What Actually Happened: This take was fairly accurate but the Mets have squandered a lot of their opportunities against bad teams already, which is a significant part of the reason why they’re in the hole that they are now.
6. Do the Mets have enough starting pitching depth?
What We Said Then: That depth is already being tested with David Peterson stepping into the starting rotation in place of the injured Jose Quintana, who will miss at least three months. Tylor Megill would be the next man up if another starter is needed while Joey Lucchesi and Elieser Hernandez remain in AAA Syracuse as depth options.
What Actually Happened: A rash of injuries saw Megill, Lucchesi, Jose Butto and Denyi Reyes all get starts for the Mets. The inconsistent performances that the Mets got out of the depth guys, particularly Megill and Peterson, taxed the bullpen early and made it much tougher for Buck Showalter to get the most out of his roster on a given day.
7. Can Brandon Nimmo stay healthy?
What We Said Then: Nimmo, who has had a track record of missing time throughout his career, stayed healthy in 2022 and earned an eight-year, $162 million deal with the Mets in the offseason. There are few good options to replace Nimmo atop the lineup or in center field so the Mets really need to keep him out there as often as possible.
What Actually Happened: Nimmo had an injury scare in spring training but was good to go by Opening Day. The Mets have seen him put up a strong first half, hitting .276 with 13 home runs and 41 RBIs, as Nimmo has played in 88 of the team’s 90 games. It is fair to say that Nimmo, who has posted a 2.2 WAR in the early going, was a snub for the All-Star Game.
8. What will Kodai Senga do?
What We Said Then: The one player with a wide range of outcomes on the roster is Senga, who was brought over from Japan to replace Chris Bassitt in the starting rotation. Senga has flashed the potential to dominate in America, which could raise the upside on the Mets’ roster significantly.
What Actually Happened: Things were a bit touch-and-go early but Senga has been the Mets’ best starting pitcher this season. Senga has gone 7-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP while racking up 113 strikeouts in 89.2 innings pitched, a performance that helped him earn an invitation to the All-Star Game.
9. Who is the Mets’ X-Factor in 2022?
What We Said Then: The biggest X-factor for the 2022 Mets is Eduardo Escobar, who looked like a true power threat during his September to remember and can be a huge power threat behind Pete Alonso in the lineup. If Escobar struggles early it could force the Mets to turn to Baty earlier than they want to.
What Actually Happened: Escobar did struggle and lose his job to Baty by the end of April. The Mets shipped out Escobar in late June in a deal that got them two pitching prospects from the Los Angeles Angels.
10. Will Billy Eppler be more aggressive at the trade deadline?
What We Said Then: The Mets were very conservative at the deadline last year as Eppler emphasized hanging onto his prospects, costing them an opportunity to significantly upgrade their roster during a 101-win season. With a clear need in the bullpen and potentially another big bat being a desire, Eppler may have to take bigger swings if the Mets want to win it all in 2023.
What Actually Happened: The Mets have already sold off Escobar and are more likely to keep selling if they don’t make up more ground in the playoff picture before the August 1 deadline. Either way, this season’s performance hasn’t given Eppler a strong incentive to be more aggressive in terms of his trades.
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