The first half is in the books for the New York Mets and it was a highly successful one as they put together their best performance prior to the All-Star Break since 1986. While we are still a few days away from the Mets’ return to action against the San Diego Padres, let’s take a look back at some of the interesting questions the team was facing prior to the season and assess how they have been answered.
Revisiting Preseason Predictions:
1. When will Jacob deGrom return from injury?
What We Said Then:
The Mets will likely be without their ace until June while he recovers from a stress reaction in his right shoulder. Losing deGrom for any period of time hurts but if the Mets can get him back in two months there is still plenty of time for him to work with Scherzer to give them the pocket aces they were planning on this winter. Any longer delays could risk the upside of this team as an NL East contender.
What Actually Happened:
deGrom didn’t throw a pitch in the first half as the rehab from his shoulder injury was a bit slower than anticipated. The good news is that deGrom is nearing the end of his rehab assignment and should rejoin the Mets’ rotation in the next week or two, giving New York a huge shot in the arm on that front.
2. Will Francisco Lindor improve in his second year in New York?
What We Said Then:
Lindor received a huge contract from the Mets last season and slumped mightily as he struggled to adjust to New York, notably getting into a fight with Jeff McNeil in the dugout while also creating controversy for giving a thumbs down to the fans in August. The good news is that Lindor has torn the cover off the ball in spring training, meaning that his late-season surge in September could be a sign of things to come.
What Actually Happened:
The batting average is a bit low at .248 but Lindor has been incredibly productive, slugging 16 home runs and driving in 66 runs while playing outstanding defense at shortstop. Lindor hasn’t quite lived up to the superstar contract he was given prior to last season but the Mets have to very happy with their investment right now.
3. Do The Mets Have Enough Rotation Depth?
What We Said Then:
The big reason the Mets were done in last season was due to a lack of pitching depth, leading Rojas to rely far too often on bullpen days and TBDs in the middle of the season. The Mets did build a staff with eight capable options to start the year but that depth is already being tested with deGrom out, Scherzer managing a hamstring issue and Taijuan Walker dealing with a knee injury. As long as the Mets can avoid having large swaths of their rotation land on the injured list at once it should be a win for New York.
What Actually Happened:
Despite losing Scherzer for six weeks with an oblique issue and Tylor Megill for significant stretches the Mets did build enough depth to withstand their injuries. David Peterson stepped up in a big way during the first half while Trevor Williams was serviceable as the Mets’ fifth starter at times, allowing the team to thrive while getting just 11 starts (all from Scherzer) in 93 games from their two aces.
4. What kind of difference will Buck Showalter make for the Mets?
What We Said Then:
The Mets made a big shift in their dugout by going with the proven veteran Showalter, a contrast to first-time managers Rojas and Mickey Callaway. Having Showalter around will help because he won’t be learning on the job and has experience dealing with the New York media from his days with the Yankees. Showalter’s years of experience will help him manage the bullpen and clubhouse, possibly helping the Mets earn a few more wins that they squandered due to questionable game management from first-time skippers in recent years.
What Actually Happened:
Showalter’s impact on this team has been tremendous. The Mets are a much better team fundamentally, as evidenced by their awareness of situational rules that past teams would have let slide, and Showalter’s calming presence in the clubhouse has prevented any nonsense like the Thumbs Down incident or Rat vs. Raccoon fight. A sense of professionalism has taken over in Flushing that was desperately needed.
5. How will the DH impact the Mets?
What We Said Then:
The biggest positive for the Mets is that the universal DH will keep their pitchers from getting injured swinging the bat, which became an issue for deGrom and Walker last season. The Mets didn’t sign a true DH over the winter so expect that spot to be rotated between the likes of JD Davis, Dominic Smith, Robinson Cano and whatever veteran needs a day off their feet.
What Actually Happened:
Despite what we thought, the DH has not been a net positive for the Mets. Cano was released after just a month while Davis and Smith have produced very little in the power department. Removing Pete Alonso’s DH days from the mix has the position among the worst on the team, providing a clear area to upgrade at the trade deadline.
6. Is the Mets’ lineup deep enough?
What We Said Then:
The Mets made some necessary changes to the lineup after it underachieved in 2022, letting Michael Conforto and Javier Baez walk in free agency while importing Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar to add more balance to the order. The new-look lineup is a bit light on power and is counting on bouncebacks from Lindor and McNeil among others, so we will see if this new approach is more successful than last year’s.
What Actually Happened:
A contact heavy approach led the Mets to be one of baseball’s most efficient offenses in April and May but the offense has been hit-or-miss since the start of June. Escobar has largely underwhelmed while the lineup feels like it drops off beyond the top five of Brandon Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso and McNeil. Another bat, particularly one with pop, is a necessity.
7. Are There Any Prospects Who Can Help in 2022?
What We Said Then:
Most fans would love to see Francisco Alvarez force his way to the majors to supplement James McCann but if all goes well that wouldn’t happen until September at the earliest. The two most likely contributors are Mark Vientos and Brett Baty, who could hit their way into the DH equation with a strong start to the season. Vientos is more likely to reach the bigs first since he is beginning 2022 in AAA while another name to watch is outfielder Khalil Lee, who could help out if the Mets have an injury in the outfield.
What Actually Happened:
The Mets didn’t really dip into their farm system apart from adding pitching, with Colin Holderman being the most notable contributor to this point. Alvarez and Vientos are both at AAA and could force their way to the majors later in the season while it appears that Baty isn’t going to be a factor until 2023.
8. How Active Will The Mets Be To Improve Their Roster In-Season?
What We Said Then:
Eppler already has made one trade this spring, dealing Miguel Castro to the Yankees for Joely Rodriguez to add a lefty to the bullpen, and the Mets have also strongly considered a deal that would have sent Smith to San Diego for Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack. Since Cohen has already allowed the Mets to significantly exceed the luxury tax they will likely be eager to take a big swing to add to an area of need by the time the trade deadline rolls around.
What Actually Happened:
The Mets’ hot start has afforded Eppler the ability to be patient. Apart from moves like bringing in veterans such as Tommy Hunter and Ender Inciarte on minor-league deals the Mets have largely stuck with the team that they brought to Washington in early April. This should change with multiple relievers and an impact bat as key needs ahead of the August 2 trade deadline.
9. Who Is The X-Factor For The Mets In 2022?
What We Said Then:
The obvious answer is Lindor as the team’s highest-paid player but we will go with his longtime teammate Carlos Carrasco. The Mets got a lost year from Carrasco after a hamstring injury screwed up his 2021 campaign but Carrasco is a former AL Wins leader who has performed very well when he has been able to stay healthy. Getting quality innings from Carrasco in 2022 would be huge since the Mets already are dealing with health questions about three of their starting pitchers.
What Actually Happened:
We covered Lindor earlier but Carrasco was also a strong pick as he led the team with 10 wins while looking dominant at times. The real answered ended up being Edwin Diaz, who was electric in the first half and emerged as baseball’s most dominant reliever, giving Showalter a huge ace in the hole out of the bullpen when the rest of the unit has struggled so mightily.
10. Will The Mets Make The Playoffs?
What We Said Then:
The addition of the sixth playoff team should only help the Mets, who would have reached the postseason in 2019 if the current rules were in play. The Mets are a deeper and more versatile team now, which should help them weather injuries, so if those improvements are worth 10 more wins it should easily result in a Wild Card berth. Any higher aspirations will likely be achieved if deGrom is able to return quickly and the rest of the team manages to stay relatively healthy over the course of the season.
What Actually Happened:
Few people saw the Mets playing 23 games above .500 in the first half without deGrom. That performance has all but assured them of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2016 with FanGraphs giving the Mets a 99% shot at earning a playoff berth right now. Whether that berth comes as a Wild Card team or the National League East champion will largely be determined by how the Mets fare in their 12 second-half matchups against the Atlanta Braves. Nine of those meetings will come in August, when the Mets should ahve deGrom back in the rotation along with a few key trade acquisitions to bolster areas of weakness.
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