Rig Ramblings – Nov. 16

gif c/o @isuckatpicking

9-7-1.

That’s certainly a bit off the mark the Oilers had set prior to losing six of the last nine. In that time, the Oilers have been outscored 28 – 18.

The team has certainly faltered when it comes to the win-loss column in this last two weeks. To give them credit, the Oilers have done a good job in making some of these games tight. I firmly believe this is an Oiler team that can at least compete for a playoff spot.

This team has crossed me before when it comes to expectations, so I try and keep things a little more tempered. I am a fan of what this Oilers team has to offer.

During today’s broadcast of OilersNow, Bob Stauffer made mention that there were a lot of scouts at last night’s EDM-ANA game. Take that for what it’s worth.

Stauffer went on to talk a little bit about how many scouts that he spoke to last night felt that this was a better Edmonton Oilers squad and one that could be considered in the middle-tier of NHL teams. That’s a bit of a generalization, but you can estimate they mean anywhere from the 10th best team in the league, to the 20th best team in the league. In and of itself, that is impressive enough for me when it comes to a team that has been a bottom feeder for longer than I would like to admit.

Stauffer continued on to say that Anaheim players he spoke with following the game made mention of their belief that Edmonton is a better team as well.

While this recent slump has certainly been a drag, I would imagine that the Oilers bounce back soon enough.

Oilers are due for an offensive break-out:
First 8 GP- 12.6 shot %
Last 8 GP-5.9 shot %
RNH/Leon/Lucic/Pouliot combined 4-3-7 last 8 GP

— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) November 16, 2016

Right now, the Oilers are nestled with a 8.52 sh% on the season which is good enough for 17th in the league. Historically, over the last nine years, the Oilers have shot 9.13%. The last four years, they’ve shot 8.68%.

I looked at SH% across the league over the last number of years, and historically there have been five teams over the last four seasons that have held sh% above 10%. All of those teams also ranked near the top of the league in PDO.

The Oilers current PDO sits at 99.8, good enough for 15th in the NHL. The Oilers are basically your average team in the NHL right now. PDO is a great statistic to look at how lucky a team is during the season. An inflated PDO (100+) means that the team is having good luck. The teams combination of sh% and sv% gives PDO its meaning, and both of those stats are very difficult to maintain at a high-level for extended period of times.

For us to expect the Oilers to continue to shoot the lights out like they did early this year is unrealistic, but I also believe it is unrealistic to expect the Oilers to have any more regression beyond where they are right now.

If the season ended today, the Oilers would be sitting in a playoff spot, which is nice. Through 17 games, the Oilers have 19 points. Prorated over an 82 game schedule, the team would sit with 91.6 points at the end of the year. In two of the last three years, that would put the Oilers in the playoffs.

If the team finishes this season with 91.6 points, it would be the teams highest point total since the 2005-2006 season.

Yesterday, I wrote a bigger piece for OilersNation looking at the first fifth of this Oilers season and how it compares to last year which I feel shines some more light on the team and where they are heading. I don’t mean to cross post, but I was happy with what I saw in the article.

Long story short, I think we are looking at the Oilers we will see the rest of the way this season.