Risk Assessment

The Mets signing Adrian Gonzalez is New York City putting bicycle lanes on Queens Boulevard. They both think they’re doing something wonderful. But they’re solving problens that don’t exist. Bike lanes and Adrian Gonzalez are unnecessary and potentially fraught with risk.

That’s right, you “low-risk, high-reward” zombies. There’s risk here.

Queens Boulevard is a four lane thoroughfare. parking spots were put on either side of the outer lanes to slow down traffic so that people wouldn’t die. Now, bike lanes have been put on the inner portions of the service lanes. It means that traffic, instead of smoothly merging from the service lane to the main road, traffic now has to make disjointed turns over new crosswalks to go from main road to service road and vice-versa. It’s disjointed and judging from what I’ve heard about how buses negotiate these turns, it’s potentially dangerous. And for what? So that food delivery workers can ride on these bike lanes to deliver food? Because these are the only people I ever see ride bicycles on these lanes.

Adrian Gonzalez could have a similar ripple effect on the New York Mets. Now you may say, as people have said to me, that this is simply a flier to see if Gonzalez has still got it. And if he doesn’t have it he’ll be released in spring training and we can go about our lives. But there’s a decent chance that in the short term, he passes the physical and looks great in spring training. Then what? Will the hope of Gonzalez’s “high reward”, which these days are more in line with the .796 OPS after the age of 30 than his under-30 days when he averaged an OPS of .889 (.796 is still okay but let’s not think we’re getting age 29 Gonzalez at age 36), be too good to pass up for a new manager who is looking for immediate success? Do you demote Dominic Smith, who has already exceeded his rookie limits? Do you keep him on the bench behind Gonzalez because let’s face it, Adrian Gonzalez did not, in any way shape or form, sign with the Mets to sit on the bench and be a mentor when he could have explored other options.

Or do you trade Dominic Smith because now you have Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Wilmer Flores all on the roster and able to play first base, and Smith is the only prospect you have in the entire system that you’re willing to give up that can bring back something significant? Okay. But you had better get it right, because if you go to teams and say you’re willing to trade Smith, they already know you’re down on him by the very fact that you’ve gone and signed Gonzalez. So you had better make sure that you get something good back after all this. Smith for Harrison? Smith in a deal for Realmuto and Starlin Castro? You had better not get any less than that. Because the possibility that Smith might even become a good player, forget all star, after you trade him in favor of 36 year-old Adrian Gonzalez for one year because let’s face it, the Mets would never sign Gonzalez to a multi year deal even if by chance he did have a throwback season at age 36? And don’t forget that Gonzalez could look great in spring training, Smith is traded, and then Gonzalez’s back goes out and he’s this decade’s Moises Alou by June? Guess what … that’s risk.

(The Mets once lost Jesus Flores off of their roster to sign Julio Franco to a two-year contract at age 47. He didn’t even make it through the two years. Can you imagine if Flores, who was considered a pretty good prospect, became a star after that?)

I’m not even upset because this is a “cheap” signing. Hypothetical situation, if Adrian Beltre was cut by Texas and the Mets had a chance to sign him for a season at the league minimum, I’d do that in a heartbeat. Jonathan Lucroy? Same deal. But another first baseman? Add to that, another first baseman that may or may not be a clubhouse know-it-all? (I get that the article in the link is from 2013 and that people change. I’ll acknowledge that if you acknowledge that people also change physically and aren’t the players at 36 than they were at 29.) Now look, I don’t know any stories. I’m not plugged in. But people who are plugged in aren’t impressed with his value in a clubhouse. If this is true, and Gonzalez wins a job to stay with the Mets all season, is he the right guy to be in that room, full of players crushed by last season’s purge and led by a first year manager? This, also, is risk. And I’m not sure I consider it low.

This could all turn into nothing, or it could turn into a bicycle wreck on Queens Boulevard. You’ve seen this team. You know their history. What would you bet on?