Back in the off-season, I sat down and thought long and hard about who the x-factor was going to be for the Edmonton Oilers this season. I settled on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as that player for the club, because if he is on his game, the Oilers should have two solid scoring lines. The full piece is here.
The problem is, to this point, Nugent-Hopkins hasn’t been on his game. Last night in Philadelphia was arguably his worst game of the season, seriously. RNH made numerous mistakes that ended up in either goals against or high quality chances. He didn’t cash on some good looks offensively and at times he looked disinterested.
Do I think Nugent-Hopkins is mailing it in? No, I don’t. He’s been a good soldier for Edmonton since entering the NHL in the fall of 2011 and, regardless of the recent struggles, this is still the best start to a season that he has seen in his NHL career. The Oilers are in the middle of a playoff chase, and while I don’t see how they make it in, they do in fact control their own destiny.
It seems like an awfully strange time for Nugent-Hopkins to mail it in, no? I do not think that is what is going on here.
Is it bad luck? It very well could be. As our friend Lowetide pointed out this morning here, RNH’s shooting percentage is down in the dumps. He’s registered 79 shots on goal but has just four goals to show for it. That, for those scoring at home, comes out to a 5.1 shooting percentage. RNH shot 11.1% on 108 shots just one season ago in 55 games. The full stats breakdown, which I recommend, resides inside the linked piece.
Whats The Issue?:
I think LT is onto something with the numbers, and I firmly believe that luck has something to do with it. Nugent-Hopkins has been getting chances, he just can’t finish them right now. It’s a slump that he simply cannot shake at this time and it’s killing his game.
I also think there is something else at play here, but I simply can’t pinpoint it. Nugent-Hopkins is making more critical mistakes in the defensive zone than I can recall in any single year in his NHL career. The almost lazy turnovers, the missed assignments, the poor decisions, they are piling up at a rapid rate right now.
The worst part? These decisions are leading directly to goals against. RNH may have been Edmonton’s worst forward last night in Philadelphia, and that’s really concerning to me.
He also appears fatigued. Watch him on an offensive rush or trying to get back defensively, he looks like he is completely gassed almost every time. I don’t recall that being an issue in prior seasons with him. It’s another thing that I’m concerned about right now.
I’m not going to speculate what the issue is, that’s not my position and I have no information on that, but I believe something is wrong with RNH and it is negatively impacting his game.
We Have a Problem:
The bottom line here is, we have a problem regarding Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He simply hasn’t been his effective self away from the puck and offensively he has been a near non-factor for the Oilers. He has a unique skill set for this hockey club and it needs to show if Edmonton wants to have success.
The Oilers need Ryan Nugent-Hopkins clicking, they need his line to produce offense behind Connor McDavid and they need the Nuge to play his solid defensive style. Without it, the Oilers don’t have much up front, and this team is going to be in trouble.
The Oilers have a problem. They need this player to produce at both ends and they simply aren’t getting that right now. Personally, I also fear that this could be the end of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as an Oiler. Two straight down seasons under Peter Chiarelli could lead to a trade this summer.
Come on now Nuge, turn this thing around.
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