During this off-season targets series, I’ve been focusing in on top-pairing options for the defense, but tonight I’m going to take a break from that and move on to some second-pairing guys. One of those guys is an unusual case study, and that’s New Jersey’s Mark Fayne, who has great underlying numbers, but a possible warning label to him. Let’s look, shall we?
Why Is He Out There?:
Fayne has been a good defender for the Devils since 2011-12, and his advanced stats numbers have gotten some attention around the league. He’s a free agent on July 1st, and will likely be in for a raise from his current contract. The Devils could have a tough time re-signing him if he hits the open market, and they know that too, hence why Marek Zidlicky was re-signed on Tuesday.
What Does He Do Well?:
Mark Fayne is a very solid defender that is a terrific possession player at the NHL level. He’s been over 50% his whole career in the Corsi For % area, showing improvement every single season. He hit 55.3% this year, and hit 58.2% during the 2012-13 shortened season. Fayne is an extremely solid defender who limits the opponents scoring chances.
He’s a decent puck-mover, but doesn’t excel in this area, his bread and butter is preventing chances and keeping the puck moving in the right direction, which is a great trait to have. He put up eleven points this season, which isn’t a surprise given that he barely gets any power-play time.
Fayne can play on the PK too, but is mainly a five-on-five player, which is huge considering Edmonton’s yearly struggle when the game is five-on-five.
Fayne’s a very strong possession player that will make his money preventing chances and pushing the river towards the offensive zone. Edmonton doesn’t have a ton of defenders that can do that, so Fayne would be a welcomed addition to this group.
Where Will He Play, and Where Should He Play?:
Here’s the catch, he comes a warning label. If signed, Fayne would play top-pairing minutes in Edmonton, and likely be the number two behind Jeff Petry. Fayne is a very good defender, and is established as a top-four option, but his minutes suggest that he is merely a number four, at best a three, right now.
Fayne averaged about 18 minutes a night this past season, which suggests he isn’t yet a top-pairing guy. It’s more than likely if Fayne were to play between 22-25 minutes a night that he would struggle. If he were to come to Edmonton and play on the second-pairing, playing between 18-20 minutes a night he’d be fine, but he can’t be trusted with more right now.
He’s a second pairing option on a good hockey club.
What Will He Cost?:
Mark Fayne will only cost money, but he’s going to garner a lot of interest this summer. The free agent defender market is thin, and guys like Fayne, who are good players, will get a big overpay on the market. Just like with Andrei Markov, the Oilers will have to overpay to get Fayne.
Likely a four year deal between $3.5/$4 M per season would be the asking price from Edmonton in my mind. It’s an overpay, but in order to bring him to a rebuilding team it will likely cost this much. Considering his ability, that might be asking too much.
Closing Argument:
Fayne is a really interesting case. He’s a great possession player, but he does it playing smaller minutes and against lesser competition. He also did it mainly playing with Andy Greene, and he saw a dip without his usual partner when they were separated.
Mark Fayne’s bread and butter, as mentioned above, is preventing chances and pushing the river into the attacking zone, which is a skill set missing in Edmonton. That being said, he’s a second-pairing defender at this time, and would have to be a secondary addition to the Oilers if the defense is to show any improvement.
Fayne is a good player, and will help the Oilers on the back-end, but he’s merely another number four defender that would be playing a role over his head if he were to sign in Edmonton. If he were brought in along with a guy like Phaneuf, Markov or Ehrhoff, fine, but on his own he won’t be enough.
Still, it’s a good bet, and if the Oilers can find a way to get Mark Fayne on board, they should do it. He has the ability to be an excellent secondary piece to Edmonton’s defense moving forward.
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