Tears From Toronto – The Draft Lottery

It seems like every single time a team starts a rebuilding process, the Edmonton Oilers are brought up. “Don’t be the Oilers!” and “Edmonton will win the draft lottery anyways!” are the two most common statements uttered. Yes, the Oilers rebuild has been a mess, but that was because the team had horrible management team in place that, quite frankly, didn’t have a real plan to rebuild. Most teams that go through this process have an actual plan.

The worst thing that we always hear is the bitching about the Oilers winning the draft lottery every single year. Whether it be fans from Toronto, Buffalo or other NHL cities or even media members at the national and regional level, people find a way to complain about Edmonton acquiring top picks year after year.

Here’s the thing, I agree with the general sentiment about the Oilers getting high picks year after year. When Edmonton picks in the top ten this summer, it will be the SEVENTH year in a row that they do so. To be honest, I find that fact pathetic. It shows how inept the team has been over this stretch, not even four first overall picks could save this sinking ship. That’s what happens with people like Steve Tambellini and Craig MacTavish though, lesson learned.

That’s besides the point, however. You see, drafts are set up so bad teams can acquire young talent to eventually get better. That’s how Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay, Chicago and Los Angeles built their organizations. They didn’t trade and sign players to the Stanley Cup, they were bad and drafted/developed an actual core. The draft, almost every single time, achieves its intended objective. The Oilers are not the norm, they are an exception to the rule.

It has to be frustrating watching Edmonton get all these picks if you are another franchise or a fan of another franchise, I get that. I’m frustrated with the whole thing and I’m an Oilers fan, I get it.

Changing the lottery system to punish teams that finish in the bottom portion of the league is NOT the answer. In fact, I would argue, it has nothing to do with the issue at hand.

Here is a fact that a lot of people don’t realize, if Edmonton doesn’t finish 30th this season, it will make it five years since Edmonton’s last 30th place finish. Only in 09-10 and 10-11 did the Oilers finish in last place, and only once did they win the draft lottery (2010). In fact, Edmonton LOST the lottery in 2011 to New Jersey, but retained the top pick because the Devils could only move up five slots.

In 2012, Edmonton won the lottery for the second time, but they were not the last place team, that was Columbus. Edmonton won Nail Yakupov after finishing in 29th place. In 2013, Edmonton picked 7th and was a non-factor in the lottery after finishing 24th in the NHL.

In 2014, Edmonton was a non-factor in the lottery, as they finished 28th place and drafted 3rd. The 30th place team that year, Buffalo, lost the lottery to the 29th place team, the Florida Panthers. Finally, in 2015, Edmonton won the lottery after finishing in 28th place, not 30th. The 30th place team was Buffalo and they selected second overall.

Through the draft lottery, the 30th place team has picked fist overall only ONCE in the last four years, Edmonton back in 2011 was the last. In addition to that, the last 30th place team to win the draft lottery was Edmonton in 2010, five lotteries ago.

What does that tell us? That the lottery is NOT rewarding the 30th place team, in fact in the last four seasons it has punished that team and moved them down in the draft. Isn’t that doing EXACTLY what the people want? They don’t want to reward teams like the Oilers who finish last. The lottery hasn’t fallen in a 30th place team’s favor since 2010.

Changing the lottery system is simply not the answer. I’d argue that what the NHL had last year was the best possible system, but unfortunately overreaction has set up a lottery for picks one, two and three now. I have a feeling that, while it will be exciting to watch, teams and fans will hate this new system within a couple of years.

Yes, the Edmonton Oilers have gotten EXTREMELY LUCKY with the draft lottery over the years. You can argue that they don’t deserve another young talent this summer, and I’d be inclined to agree with you (although I think this management team/coaching staff isn’t the issue and shouldn’t deal with the past mistakes). That said, changing the system to punish other teams is simply not the right way to go about this.

The tears from Toronto started last April when the Leafs lost that lottery. I suspect that they will flow again this spring when the lottery balls fall in the favor of Edmonton/Calgary/Buffalo/Winnipeg. My only comment to them? You and some in the media did this to yourself.