The Cam Talbot Conundrum

Peter Chiarelli made his first impactful NHL move in Edmonton at the draft this past summer when he traded for Cam Talbot. Talbot, the man who helped push the Rangers to the postseason when Henrik Lundqvist went down a year ago, was supposed to be the team’s number one goalie. Talbot was supposed to come in and stabilize a hole for the Oilers.

Through one month of the NHL season, that has not been the case. After a decent start to the season, Cam Talbot has hit a massive rut. It’s hurting the Oilers, and it’s making fans, bloggers and media alike wonder if he really is the guy to hold the crease down for this hockey club.

The Stats:

Robin Brownlee writes over at Oilersnation and is one of my favorite bloggers that writes about this team. Some of you might disagree with me, but I always find Robin insightful and brutally honest. His tweet regarding Talbot’s recent starts was pretty eye opening on Monday morning.

@Robin_Brownlee: Cam Talbot last five appearances .857, .844, .857, .857 and .912. If you’re going to repeat one number in that sequence, .857 isn’t it.

Outside of one game, where Talbot was still slightly below average at .912, he has been below replacement level. The Oilers could honestly expect better goaltending from their AHL goalie than four of Talbot’s last five starts. That is not good, especially for a guy who you are pinning your hopes on.

Overall on the season, Talbot has played in 11 games for the Oilers and has posted a GAA of 3.00 with a SV% of .893, that simply is not good enough, in fact it is on par with the terrible goaltending in Edmonton from a season ago.

Why Is This Happening Again?:

I think there are a few reasons for this. One is that the Oilers simply are not a good hockey team yet. They still surrender far too many big chances and do leave their goalies out to dry far too much. I’m not defending Talbot’s rough start, but it’s hard to be terrific behind a unit that gives up a fair number of grade A chances every night.

That being said, Talbot has given up a number of soft goals. I thought he gave up far too many softies against Calgary on Halloween night and he gave up two stinkers to Chicago back on Sunday night. Going back to the start of the season, you can find at least one questionable goal in every Talbot start this season.

It’s a combination of things, the Oilers defense still isn’t good enough and gives up too many chances, and Talbot is trying to do too much. He’s either lost confidence in his defensive unit or he’s lost confidence in himself, because he is not playing good hockey right now.

Is It Time To Panic?:

Cam Talbot’s Oilers future will be decided in the next month, I truly believe that. If he soils the bed throughout the month on November and as a result the Oilers become irrelevant by December 1st, I believe Peter Chiarelli will start looking at other options to handle the netminding duties moving forward.

I still think Talbot is a good option, but I do believe it’s time to start getting a little nervous here. He was not good in his first month, in fact Talbot’s October this year mirrors Ben Scrivens’ month of October last year. We all remember how that ended, Scrivens was essentially a dead man walking by December first and his poor performances contributed to Edmonton being out of it early yet again.

Can Talbot Turn It Around?:

I believe that he can. I saw Cam Talbot quite good last season and his career numbers speak for themselves. SV%’s of .941 and .926 suggest a goalie that can play in the NHL. I believe he is closer to that goalie than the .893 goalie he has been this season. I’m predicting that he regresses to the mean and puts forth a decent rest of the season.

He’s got the talent to turn it around, and I believe as Edmonton’s schedule softens and the team becomes more comfortable in McLellan’s system he will face less grade A chances. Cam Talbot turning it around is key to Edmonton’s success and key to Cam Talbot’s future.