The Draisaitl Effect

How He Got Here

After being selected 3^rd overall in the 2014 draft, what a whirlwind year it has been for Leon Draisaitl! The big German who started the year in Edmonton with an otherwise lackluster 37 NHL game stretch where he looked overwhelmed the majority of the time (2G 7A -17) finished strong with 2 consecutive MVP trophies. After being sent back to junior, Leon was quickly traded to the Kelowna Rockets who spent 4 weeks as the #1 CHL team in the country while playing in 32 games amassing an impressive 19G 34A & a +14. Over this time, Leon became arguably the best forward in the WHL & proved it by leading the Rockets to a WHL trophy with 10G 18A in 19 games, receiving a playoff MVP trophy for his efforts. He wasn’t quite finished there though. He went on to help the Rockets get to the Memorial Cup final with 4G & 3A in the tournament but fell 2-1 in OT to the champion, Oshawa Generals. It should be worth noting that in the 2 games vs the Generals, they were the only team to hold Leon pointless in the tournament. Oshawa holding a star player off the score sheet shouldn’t have come as a surprise considering the Generals also held McDavid pointless in 2 of 5 games during the OHL final. As a consolation prize, Leon became the 3^rd drafted Oilers player to receive the Memorial Cup MVP award. Taylor Hall, then of the Windsor Spitfires won it twice as the only player in Memorial Cup history to do so in 2009 & 2010, while back in my grad year of 1993 (!) Ralph Intranuovo won it as well as a member of the Soo Greyhounds.
There were actually 3 Oilers to have won the trophy if you’d like to include 1975’s WHA Oilers draft pick, Barry Smith.
Even after winning 2 WHL playoff rounds, Leon kind of became the Oilers “forgotten son” when on one blessed April 18, 2015 the Oilers won the draft lottery thus being gift wrapped Connor McDavid on June 26, 2015. It wasn’t until the WHL Conference final that Leon was seriously talked about again & where Oilers fans became excited about a potential “Leon vs Connor” Memorial Cup showdown. If not for the Generals getting in the way, it appeared to have been a safe bet.

Where Does He Go From Here?

For the first time in about 10 years, the Oilers appear to have a wealth of depth down the middle, yes, I said wealth not welp. With the likes of RNH, Lander, Gordon, Draisaitl & within a month, McDavid, the Oilers are FINALLY, deep at center. We know the immediate needs are in goal & on the blue line some Oilers fans are already perusing to deal away Draisatl to get 1 or maybe both of those needs, but is that the right approach?
Considering the ELC Leon has, even if he was to crack the line-up, the cost would be cheap even if he was to collect ELC bonuses. There are the other group of fans who’d like to see Leon develop by spending some time next year in the minors, which can’t hurt given at this point in his career, Leon has looked like a man amongst boys vs CHL opposition. The NHL as we all know, is an entirely different beast so sending Leon to play against men in the AHL, wouldn’t be a bad idea.

At this point it’s very safe to suggest that the Oilers center depth chart from 1 – 3 is as follows:
1) McDavid
2) RNH
3) Draisaitl
As an Oilers fan, I know this makes you smile. Isn’t depth a wonderful thing!?
One of the things to ponder is, how close are RNH & Draisaitl within the next 2yrs?
Their junior numbers from their 17 to 18yr old seasons on rather weak teams were eerily similar. They are also both predominately play making, 2way centers, Leon is just physically bigger.
Leon averaged 1.27pts/GP in the regular season & 0.875pts/GP in the playoffs.
http://www.hockeydb.com/em/?text_col=%23000000&linktext_col=%230000ee&linktext_hover_col=%23770000&bg_col=%23f0ecdd&border_col=%23000000&title_bg_col=%23d6cda5&row_bg_col=%23ffffff&row_alt_bg_col=%23f5f2e9&header=1&pid=117125“>RNH averaged 1.25pts/GP in the regular season & 1.0pts/GP in the playoffs.

Now, there’s obvious differences in their overall game since then. Despite his undersized frame, RNH broke into the league like a fireball centering sophomore Hall & Eberle & was arguably their best player out of camp in 2011-12 season. An obvious Calder trophy year was railroaded with a freak injury in Chicago where he lost an edge & crashed into the boards resulting in a shoulder injury that seemed to have slowed his development up until the start of the 2013-14 season. Since then, he’s looked like an annual 56pt/year player with a really nice 2 way game.

Draisaitl on the other hand, had a very underwhelming start to his NHL career. He wasn’t great in camp, lacked that 1^st step NHL speed combined with playing with Yakupov & everyone else, he just wasn’t able to find that next level needed to be an everyday NHL player. I would suggest that based on Leon’s body of work & style of play thus far, he’s got the potential to be as productive as RNH is now in a pts/60 measure within his next 2 full, NHL seasons.

The only real success he had was playing with Perron, where he broke even in 5v5 scoring. This from Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com:

As compared to getting crushed with Yakupov:

The only other forward who played 69mins or more with Leon was Purcell where they combined for a crazy high shot attempt ratio:

At the end of the day, it appears to be have been a good decision to send Leon down & into a situation that best suited his development for this year. Aside from his NHL tenure, he accomplished exactly what the Oilers had hoped he would this year on an individual basis in junior. He absolutely crushed his OHL competition, was matched up against Oshawa’s best in the 2 games they played & held his own.

The End Game

His next step will be a big one & he has all the tools to become the 2C that we thought we needed prior to the McDavid gift. He’s got a huge task ahead of him supplanting RNH as the 2C on this team but given his defensive play witnessed this calendar year it’s not impossible, & there’s no reason to believe that he can’t be a long term plan here as a 3C (our very own, Jordan Staal, if you will) or potentially moved to the wing as a big bodied, skilled player. Let’s be realistic, there’s going to be injuries next year so trading away from a position of strength is just a bad idea at this time. Keep Leon here, for now & let’s allow his play dictate which pro line-up he makes this upcoming season.
#IsItOctoberYet