The Edmonton Oilers have played ten games on this young season. The overall results are not just successful, but truly surprising. The Oilers jumped out of the gate with five straight wins, and ended up starting the year 7-2-1. The 15 points banked in the first portion of the season are massive. It gives the Oilers a cushion that should allow them to compete for the postseason this spring.
Not everything is rosy through the first ten games of the season. The club has gotten just one goal from the bottom six, and the possession numbers are a red flag. Is Edmonton’s 7-2-1 record a sign of improvement, or did the club ride a heater early in the season? Only time will tell.
Here’s a look at the club through the first ten games.
Top Six Dominance:
The Oilers top six has been terrific to start the season. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are up to their old tricks, as McDavid sits tied for second in the league with 17. Draisaitl is fourth, right behind his center with 16 on the season. They’ve been terrific. Zack Kassian has had a great start too, posting six points (3-3-6) in ten games.
Surprisingly, the Oilers have gotten good production from their second line. James Neal has nine goals (9-1-10) through ten games, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has posted good possession numbers and six points (1-5-6) through ten contests. The other wing spot has been a revolving door, with Joakim Nygard, Tomas Jurco and Alex Chiasson all getting turns. None of those three have taken the bull by the horns, and this remains a problem area.
Five of the Oilers top six forwards have had great starts to the season. They’ve propelled the Oilers to seven wins and kept them relevant early in the season. Regression in the next ten games is likely, however. Neal won’t keep shooting 31%, while the amount of ice time both McDavid and Draisaitl have gotten suggests they will eventually run out of gas.
Bottom Six Disaster:
Ken Holland signed Jurco, Markus Granlund, Josh Archibald, Joakim Nygard and Gaetan Haas in an effort to fix Edmonton’s bottom six over the summer. Riley Sheahan was added before training camp started. Together, they have just one goal and three assists. That’s not good.
Granlund, Archibald and Sheahan have all played well on the penalty kill, but they have zero points between the three of them. That isn’t going to fly. Nygard is the only bottom six forward with a goal this season, and that came back in the second game of the year against the Kings. The Oilers haven’t gotten a bottom six goal in nearly three weeks.
The top six, goaltending and defense have been good enough to make the playoffs this season. The bottom six? This is the kind of support group that will lead to a top ten draft pick in June. It isn’t good enough, and it eventually will cost this team points in the standings. Hell, you can argue they’ve cost Edmonton at least one point in the last two games.
Eventually, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody should help Edmonton’s depth scoring. Until then, someone needs to step up before this solid start is wasted. Sam Gagner NEEDS to be in the lineup against the Capitals.
The Fancies:
All stats are via Natural Stat Trick. Edmonton ranks 25th in the NHL in Corsi For percentage, clocking in with a 46.88 CF%. That’s not good enough. A deeper dive shows that the top six has been just fine. Through 129:52, the McDavid line (McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian) has a CF% of 50.22%. You’d hope for better from a McDavid line, but they are over the break even mark. This trio is scoring 73.33% (!!) of goals while on the ice, but that appears unsustainable. Their expected goals for % is just 48.57%.
Edmonton might have found a solid second line possession wise. The trio of Nugent-Hopkins, Neal and Chiasson has a CF% of 57.75% through roughly 40 minutes of five-on-five time together. They hold a little over 62% of the shot share and have an expected goals percentage of 62.92%. Small sample size alert, but this line has been good for the Oilers.
Where do the struggles come in terms of possession? The bottom six, which has not been good to this point.
Final Thoughts:
The Edmonton Oilers have 15 points and are 7-2-1. Nothing can take away from that. They have established a cushion that should allow them to compete for a spot in the playoffs throughout the season. There are holes, however. The bottom six is not good enough and the possession numbers could be better.
The team is getting great goaltending from Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith, which should help them work through their issues. It’s imperative they find some scoring depth.
The first ten game segment was a resounding success for the Oilers. They banked 15 points, firmly positioned themselves in the playoff race and seemingly have fixed their penalty kill and goaltending issues.
If the Oilers can go 6-3-1 in their next ten game segment, it might be time to look at this group as a serious playoff contender. The schedule gets tougher, can they pass the next test? The depth will need to step up if they are going to.
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