The New York Mets have been very quiet this winter, with their only move of note being a two year contract for reliever Anthony Swarzak. This is a bit concerning since the Mets are coming off a 92 loss season with holes throughout the roster. The Mets had a $155 million dollar payroll last season, but General Manager Sandy Alderson was quick to slash it via salary dumps last summer and has stated that the team is planning on reducing payroll again. This has gone against the franchise’s previously stated goals of winning again in 2018, leaving the Mets playing a dangerous game with the middle ground.
The Mets have been frustrating this winter because they (particularly Alderson) have made public declarations about how they will improve the team only to backtrack on their promises. Alderson said early in the winter that adding relievers to their bullpen would be a top priority, only to recoil with sticker shock at the prices before landing Swarzak. Swarzak is a good addition, but he can’t be the only bullpen move, which is what Alderson hinted would be the case earlier this week. Alderson also suggested in late September that the Mets would look for a veteran starter to provide rotation depth, which is a fabulous idea, only to term a starter “fourth on a list of three” priorities at the Winter Meetings.
The other issue is that the Mets appear inclined to bargain hunt at positions of need instead of looking to add top talent at those spots. The Mets desperately need a second baseman, but they have already dropped hints that if a trade doesn’t work out their top fallback options are Jose Reyes and Ryan Goins, two mediocre players. The Mets need a center fielder, but they are showing no interest in Lorenzo Cain, apparently hoping that Juan Lagares’ work with a swing coach will turn him into the next J.D. Martinez. Another area of need is at first base, where the Mets could certainly afford to be in on Eric Hosmer, freeing up Dominic Smith for a potential deal to improve another area of the roster. The Mets haven’t even reached out to Hosmer, looking instead for a corner outfielder who can play first base. Jay Bruce would have fit that bill, but the sticker shock from Carlos Santana’s three year deal with the Phillies worth $60 million will likely scare them off of Bruce. That could leave the Mets scraping the bottom of the barrel there as well, looking at the likes of Adam Lind as potential options.
This also ignores the fact that the Mets need a solution at third base and haven’t even been linked to the top free agent, Mike Moustakas, despite the fact he seemingly has few suitors. The Mets should be flush with cash since they had a ton of money come off the payroll and saved another 10-15 million in their salary dump trades last summer. The fact that the Mets are unwilling to use that money is infuriating, especially since Alderson recently complained that his farm system isn’t strong enough to complete major trades. While the Mets’ system has dipped in quality over the past few years due to deals and graduations, they had an opportunity to actually improve it last summer by picking up a bunch of prospects to re-stock. Alderson instead chose to take a bunch of minor league relievers and cash to line the Wilpon’s pockets, costing himself an opportunity to add some much needed prospects to the farm system.
All of these actions leave the Mets in the middle of the league, not bad enough to be a bottom dweller but not good enough to contend. The Mets could do well if everything goes right, but that rarely happens for them. Simply hoping that their key players stay healthy and that several others have career years is not a recipe for winning. The Mets should have taken advantage of their window of having cheap and talented starting pitching to surround them with a quality lineup. That opportunity has been squandered, with the big five only guaranteed to be together for one more year. Even after Matt Harvey inevitably leaves next fall (or sooner if the Mets decide to trade him), the Mets will still have several years of team control on Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. The Mets have acquired exactly one marquee talent (Yoenis Cespedes) since their run began in 2015 and developed another one in Michael Conforto. While it’s true that David Wright’s back injuries have been a problem, this is a franchise that operates in the New York market. One bad deal shouldn’t be enough to sink a franchise with the Mets’ resources, but the team operates like it is a middle market team instead of a big market one.
Take the team across town for example. The Yankees made it all the way to the ALCS last year and chose to spend big to add Giancarlo Stanton to their roster. The Mets lost 92 games and are trying to win while cutting payroll, things that aren’t mutually exclusive. The game has evolved into an all in or all out approach thanks to the new CBA, MetsBlog’s Matt Cerrone points out, and the Mets are missing out by hovering in the middle. The new system encourages teams to either go for broke now, like the Dodgers and Red Sox are doing, or to tear it all down and hope to rebuild in a few years. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs won the last two World Series after complete tear downs loaded their teams with prospects that turned into impact players, and the Yankees are on that path after an abbreviated rebuild.
Staying in the middle and hoping to win with average talent surrounding the core is a waste of the prime years for Syndergaard, deGrom, Cespedes, and others. The Mets should either try to go all in for the next few years, signing a few top free agents to supplement the core, or tear it down Cubs’ style. deGrom and Syndergaard would certainly command a haul of talented young players that could accelerate a rebuild. The Mets clearly don’t want to rebuild again so quickly since Citi Field would become a ghost town for a few years, but they have already become essentially irrelevant with the Yankees taking back the town last October. The choice is simple for the Mets: either make big moves to try and win it with this core or rip it up to try and be the next Chicago or Houston. Being a middle of the pack team will lead to middle of the road results, which is the worst possible place for the Mets to be.
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