There was a short string of tweets that caught my eye Tuesday morning and it got me to thinking. How do we, as fans, put to bed the notion that Devan Dubnyk isn’t good enough to back this team in the short term? (and) Are we headed for another disaster?
Although Devan Dubnyk has had a couple of bounce back games, a common narrative persists among fans is that he will never be good enough to lead this team anywhere. He lets in soft goals. He doesn’t inspire confidence in the players. Et cetera, et cetera. You know exactly what I am talking about because a lot of you think just that. Although some of that may be true it is an easy target for fans of a team that is struggling. I think the quality of the team in front of him has far more influence on what people think of him than what most people would choose to believe.
My view has changed of hockey over the last few years and that change has a lot to do with statistics. I’m a big proponent of items like Corsi, Fenwick and PDO. They show me parts of the game that I wasn’t readily able to see on my own and they allow me to keep some quantity of levelheadedness about the team I follow. I’m still a fan through and through, and I suffer the defeats and champion the triumphs as most fans do, but I want to know more about what I’m watching and have a deeper understanding about what makes the Oilers tick. Advanced stats help me do that.
The string of tweets I mentioned are the following…
It is interesting to hear media types waxing poetica about the AV’s great start. Hey fellas do U think the .960 svp. continues?
Bob Stauffer – Oct 22, 2013
@Bob_Stauffer What, a hot goalie can’t stay hot ;)?
David Staples – Oct 22, 2013
@dstaples @Bob_Stauffer so… .920 last year misses playoffs every year too? Apparently so. It depends when the .08 goes in. #forReal
@pipefitter34 – Oct 22, 2013
What caught my eye is really the first tweet by Stauffer and the last one by @pipefitter34 (Kelly as per twitter). I’m not 100% sure about the context but it got me thinking. There are a few things at play with the Edmonton Oilers right now which are affecting the bottom line. Here are 3 big ones that speak to me…
- They are not generating enough, in terms of shots for, at 5v5. Right now the Oilers are sitting at 24.9 shots per game. Only Tampa is worse at 24.6. To put the SF/60 number in perspective look no further than last year where they finished at 26.9. To this point they’ve gotten worse at 5v5. The only saving grace in this department right now is that their SA/60 is a comfortable 28.6, sitting in 11th.
- The 5v5 team shooting percentage is too high to maintain. The league average is 7.42%, the Oilers are sitting at 10.2%. Last year they finished at closer to the average at 8.2%. I fear a correction.
- The even strength SV% still sits in the basement at an awful .891. League average? .927
To sum up those three points this is basically what we have. The Oilers have been better at limiting the number of shots they face but they still aren’t generating enough offense at 5v5 and they started the season with a horrible run of goaltending luck.
With those 3 points it appears to me that the season narrative is taking shape and the underlying stats are bringing me back to reality. I sadly have to admit that nothing about this team screams ‘we are not where we should be’, exception of course being the goaltending. So to answer my own question, and I’ve gotten here in a bit of a round-a-bout way, but I think the notion of Dubnyk not being good enough can be put to bed some what and that we may be on the verge of another disastrous campaign. Dubnyk has turned his game around and should provide average puck stopping moving forward, just as he has in the past. The biggest problem, and the problem that made Dubnyk’s early season play such a hot button topic, is that the team in front of him just isn’t good enough. Our cloudy fan goggles just don’t see it as easily.
I’m sure this all sounds terribly negative but it really is just the truth as I see it. The Oilers have improved in such a way that they are no longer allowing, on average, ~35 shots a game and it really is a remarkable improvement. The problem is that they still are not generating the amount of shots they need to consistently outscore the other team. What the team has going right now is like some ancient Chinese proverb gone awry. There is no yin AND yang. Just yin OR yang. “Better” defense but less offense.
Moving forward, even if Devan Dubnyk starts putting up Colorado-esque goaltending numbers, I’m worried that there isn’t going to be enough opportunity left to salvage the playoffs. Going back to the first tweet, we all look at Colorado and say “they can’t sustain” which is 100% truth, but with the luck of some hot goaltending they have been awarded a chance. It doesn’t seem fair but the Oilers don’t have that chance. They’ve started the season at the opposite end of the standings and will be playing chase from here on in. They occupy the same realms of the underlying numbers as Colorado but haven’t had the good fortune of Mr. Roy and his charges.
All is not lost though. It is still relatively early with 73 games remaining (including tonight) and the only place they can go is up… right? Sam Gagner will be back soon, Taylor Hall hasn’t been lost for the season and it’s possible that MacT has *cleared his space* and realized his team doesn’t need face punchers who suck at hockey. They need hockey players who can push the puck in the right direction and keep it out of their own end for long stretches of time.
They are going to have to scratch and claw and fight for every point they can and hope for a few bounces along the way and I really do I hope I’m wrong. But my biggest fear that the numbers don’t lie.
Feel free to share some banter, be it hockey or otherwise, on twitter with me, @Borisnikov
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