It’s fun to be an Edmonton Oiler fan again, and with that fun comes excitement and expectations.
Ron McLean caused a bit of a stir throughout the nation when he stood by his claims that Connor McDavid would lead the Edmonton Oilers to a Stanley Cup in the next two to four years. I am (cue the commonly used bumper sticker phrase), cautiously optimistic to believe the same thing.
While I have been having starry-eyed dreams about that glorious day that would cure the ills of the past five ten seasons, I started to ponder the group of players that would be a part of that team.
At this very moment, I would say the murkiest position to predict the future would be goaltending. Sure, Cam Talbot could become another Ben Bishop and lead us to victory, or a rookie Laurent Brossoit could be between the pipes. Of course, we could acquire or sign a totally new tender to keep the pucks out of the net while McDavid and company pile up the scoreboard.
So in a short three-part series, I will look into the “D” group, the top six forward group and the bottom six forward group that will be wearing the orange and blue raising the silver cup.
THE CURRENTS
If the rumour mill is chiming out some truth, then the Edmonton Oilers are very close to locking up Oscar Klefbom to a long-term, small-cap deal. This is great news because Klefbom’s potential is immense, and at a predicted cap hit of $4M over seven years he would be a bargain for at least four of the seven years. He’s safe.
Andrej Sekera is currently the longest contracted player, not just defenseman, player on the team. Sekera is a solid possession defenseman who is easily the most dependable on the Oilers blue line. While he’s likely not the guy to lead the team to promised land as the top gun on the blueline, he’ll likely be paired with the chosen one. He’s safe.
Justin Schultz has been an enigma to say the least. He has all the scoring potential from the back end, but he can’t seem to complete his game. While Chiarelli employed a similar player in Torey Krug, but not on his cup winning team. If a D-man can’t play a complete game, he is likely on the outs. Schultz may thrive under McLellan, but if he can’t round out his game, then he’s likely moved for a player who can.
Mark Fayne is an interesting subject. He was a solid complimentary player on a pairing with Andy Greene in New Jersey, but he found himself playing less and less under inexperienced NHL coaches in Dallas Eakins and Todd Nelson. Fayne wasn’t even mentioned in Chiarelli’s latest televised discussion, while Nikitin was. It doesn’t bode well for him, but I think he could surprise. Fayne is a wild card.
The captain, or captain for the moment, is all but gone before a cup is raised. Ference is a consumate professional, and i’ll be the first to say he’s been treated unfairly. Call it the Horcoff effect (That’s a blog all in itself). Ference simply cannot be judged on his inability to play big minutes at this point in his career. This is likely his last season in Oiler silks and I hope the best for him.
The new hire, Eric Gryba, tells us a lot about the type of player Peter Chiarelli covets. Gryba is still relatively young at 27, and if he can provide the grit and toughness while playing solid penalty killing and third-pairing minutes, then he very well could have his name on the cup at age 30…
Nikita Nikitin has reportedly been training very well throughout the summer to be prepared for training camp. He knows his NHL career is on the line after a poor first season in blue and orange. Nikitin’s large cap hit, declining skill, age, and contract status likely mean he’s as good as gone.
THE FUTURES
Ever since the Oilers drafted Darnell Nurse, I like many, have been hoping and praying that he would become the defenseman we’ve craved since Chris Pronger left. Well, as much as I want to pump the brakes, there is a good chance he could be as effective as Chris Pronger. At the very least Darnell Nurse is going to Robyn Regehr. This guy is a stud and he could very well be “the guy” on “D” when the Oilers win the cup.
But I digress….
Peter Chiarelli made his first bold move when he dealt the 16th and 33rd overall draft picks in the 2015 Draft in exchange for Griffin Reinhart. Reinhart has a winning pedigree, and he is well known and adapted to the city of Edmonton from his WHL days with the Oil Kings. Reinhart will likely split the season between the NHL and minors, but by the time a Cup is raised, Reinhart will be in the “D” group.
David Musil is not a big sexy name, but he is a no-nonsense defensive defenseman who has continued to improve every season since his draft year. While many believe the Oilers past on greater talent (Boone Jenner, Justin Faulk), David Musil can still become a solid NHL player. If Gryba isn’t around and Chiarelli wants more toughness on his blue to compliment Reinhart and Nurse, then Musil has as good a chance as anybody.
A late draft pick, an overage year in junior, and a battle with cancer wasn’t enough to keep Brandon Davidson down. The 2010 6th round pick has exceeded every expectation thrown at him to the point that he can challenge for an NHL spot as soon as this season. Davidson is a safe player, and he won’t wow anybody, but he will play a solid 14+ minutes every night.
The Oilers have been taking the slow road with prospect Dillon Simpson, and he’s one of the older prospects at age 22, and he’s likely not going to see the NHL regularly for two or three years. Simpson may become trade bait.
With shades of Marc-Andre Bergeron, Joey LaLeggia is ready to start his pro career after a highly successful junior career. LaLeggia will likely produce offense and may only get to be on the cup winning team as a 7th D-man that specializes on the power play. However, he may also become trade bait.
CHIARELLI’S CUP WINNING DEFENSE
When the Boston Bruins won the Stanley Cup in 2011, Chiarelli had put together a strong defense group.
Chara-Seidenberg
Ference-Boychuk
Kaberle-McQuiad
Hnidy
Chiarelli’s group has a stud D-man in Chara paired with a bonafide two-way top-four defenseman in Seidenberg. Ference and Boychuk were both hard-working no-nonsense top-four defensemen that were more focused on their own end. The bottom pairing included an acquired power-play specialist veteran and a young bottom pairing rough-knuckled d-man. Shane Hnidy only played three playoff games, so the fill-in just had experience.
A pairing of Nurse-Sekera could maybe rival the Chara-Seidenberg pairing in three years. Griffin Reinhart and Oscar Klefbom could be the 3/4 pairing, but i’d expect the Oilers to chase a defenseman from outside the organization to lineup with Klefbom. Griffin Reinhart would likely also be in the group.
LIKELY OUTCOME
When the Oilers are competing for the Stanley Cup and hopefully winning it, the depth chart will see a lot of young defensemen playing very big roles for the club. Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom and Griffin Reinhart will be in the thick of it with Andrej Sekera. The Oilers will likely move out Justin Schultz, Mark Fayne and Eric Gryba to bring in other areas of need.
It’s not concrete, but the Edmonton Oilers will be using a good young defense group more similar to the Nashville Predators then to Peter Chiarelli’s Boston Bruins.
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