2014-15, it was supposed to be the season where the Oilers began their turn north, where Edmonton would finally show that it’s rebuild had paid off and that it made the right decision in January of 2010. Over five years after owner Daryl Katz proclaimed the team in a rebuild, the Oilers actually find themselves in a worse position.
Edmonton is currently on pace for it’s worst season in franchise history. The lowest win total, point total and points percentage mark are all within reach for Edmonton. Five seasons after the rebuild began, Edmonton is looking massive failure and steps backwards right in the eyes. It’s a sad state of affairs, but it is the current state of the Edmonton Oilers.
What Has Gone Wrong:
A lot has gone wrong, sadly. Edmonton’s management team has simply been inept since this project began. President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe has overseen the collapse and subsequent wheel spinning, while previous GM Steve Tambellini gutted a decent roster and only received draft picks to show for it.
Current GM Craig MacTavish has completely failed to find suitable NHL complimentary pieces, and has failed in a number of major ways when trying to put together a blue-line that can compete at this level. Not to mention, he has struck out on five goalies since taking over in the spring of 2013.
The pro scouting department has been a mess for years, and Edmonton decided to draft for need over drafting the best player available. Those two things have been huge issues.
When you have a pro scouting department that simply cannot identify a top-four defender at the NHL-level and can’t find suitable bottom-six players, the issues that have plagued Edmonton for years come to light. Nikita Nikitin, Cam Barker, Ben Eager, Eric Belanger and countless others fall into this category.
As for the drafting issue, no other organization would have used second round picks on guys like Mitch Moroz or David Musil, and I highly doubt any other organization would have wasted a third round pick on a checking center like Travis Ewanyk. Edmonton has simply tried too hard to fill positions of need with high draft picks, when it simply does not work that way.
All of these things, combined with rushing young players to the NHL and moving useful veteran pieces for picks, has resulted in the sad-sack organization that we see today in Edmonton. Mismanagement and a complete lack of accountability from ownership, it’s plain and simple.
Where Are We Now?:
The short answer is in the midst of the worst season in franchise history, which is kind of hard to believe. There was some optimism that this team would at least compete this season, but that has completely gone by the wayside. This team finds themselves in a worse spot than the 2009-10 team.
This organization is currently at a crossroads. It can stay the course, allowing Kevin Lowe, Craig MacTavish, Scott Howson and Bill Scott to continue running the show from a management standpoint, or they can clean out house in the off-season and allow Bob Nicholson to bring in his own staff, likely from the Hockey Canada tree.
Now, I’d clean house, but that simply is not going to happen. GM’s usually get five seasons to make something happen, and MacTavish is now just two seasons into his tenure. Obviously, he’s close with the owner and friends with Kevin Lowe, so I can’t see him getting fired. We’ve also seen this organization be patient to a fault before, so I can’t see them rushing to fire a guy perceived as a smart hockey guy. By the way, I think MacT is smart, but as a player and a coach, because as a GM, he simply hasn’t proven he’s nearly as savvy.
The likely scenario is that this management group returns for another season, getting one last crack at making this team competitive again. They’ll need to add three or four pieces to make that work, which is a very difficult task. The Oilers need some big time pieces to be able to compete next season.
What Has To Happen:
Decisions, and many of them. Is Todd Nelson the guy moving forward for this organization? There are plenty of good things that have happened under Nelson, but he’s only won four more games (11 to 7) through 31 games than Dallas Eakins did. Sure, it’s visually better, but the results are basically the same. I’d look for a veteran HC this off-season (Ken Hitchcock please), and I suspect that’s what Edmonton does.
Regardless of the verdict, head coach is a decision that will have to be made this off-season.
Player movement will need to be a massive area of discussion this summer as well. Edmonton will need to acquire multiple pieces, and they can’t afford to strike out like last summer. Failure to fill holes WILL result in lost jobs a year from now, nothing can save this group from another bottom five finish in my mind.
Edmonton will need to add two defenders, a starting goaltender and a top-nine forward to the roster between draft weekend and the opening of training camp in September. If they can do that, they won’t guarantee a playoff team, but they’ll certainly set themselves up for a better season.
Failure to do so will likely result in us once again looking at the draft board come November, or more likely looking at the GM candidates for hire in the spring of 2016.
What Will Happen?:
No one knows for sure, but I’m starting to think desperation is setting in in Edmonton. Craig MacTavish sounded desperate at his post-deadline press conference, saying his team will move up next year, quickly adding that they simply have to move up the standings next season. The heat is on the GM, mainly because that new building is going to be ready in October of 2016.
I’ll suggest movement happens this off-season, because Craig MacTavish knows failure will likely result in a loss of a job. The same desperation that overshadowed New York Islanders GM Garth Snow last off-season will likely overshadow the Oiler offices this June and July. Will the results be the same? I’m not exactly sure of that, but I think the off-season effort will be somewhat similar. Problem is, we have nothing to suggest the right decisions will be made.
Like I said, this organization is at a massive crossroads. At nine seasons out of the playoffs, the Oilers are on the cusp of breaking a record for the most consecutive seasons out of the playoffs. It’s an embarrassing mark, but one that the team is now looking at squarely. There isn’t even a team close in terms of failure and a post-season drought, it’s Edmonton and everyone else.
The state of this franchise is so simple and sad. A once giant in the professional sports world has been reduced to this, the laughing stock of the National Hockey League and the butt end of jokes from Boston to Dallas to Los Angeles.
Enough is enough already, the state of this current team needs to change, and it falls squarely on the shoulders of Daryl Katz, Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish.
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