The Zack Wheeler Decision Is Very Tricky For The New York Mets

When the New York Mets approached the trade deadline this season, they had a few very obvious decisions to make. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jeurys Familia, pending free agents, needed to be dealt and they were. The Mets also had the opportunity to shop guys like Devin Mesoraco, Jose Bautista, and Wilmer Flores, which they have done. The trickiest decision on the roster has come down to whether or not the Mets should trade Zack Wheeler. Wheeler, who should have more value than most of the rental starters traded during this week period due to the extra year of team control he offers, has really turned a corner and become an excellent member of the starting rotation. That choice, especially since removing Wheeler really impacts the Mets’ ability to contend in 2019, has become very difficult.

The decision is truly fascinating because while Wheeler has been the Mets’ best starter not named Jacob deGrom for a while, he doesn’t have the track record to back it up. Wheeler missed both 2015 and 2016 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and made only 17 inconsistent starts last year before going down with another injury. It’s also important to remember that Wheeler didn’t make the Mets’ rotation on Opening Day, starting the year at AAA before a rainout opened a spot for him with the big club. Wheeler, who tossed six shutout innings today to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates and earn a third straight win, is now 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts.

The Mets truly believe that Wheeler, 28, has turned a corner and is worth a top 5 prospect in a trade. Other teams clearly don’t see that way, which has led to the disconnect that FanCred’s Jon Heyman tweeted about today:

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The Mets don’t have to move Wheeler, and if they don’t get the return they want they shouldn’t trade him for the sake of trading him. It is true that Wheeler’s value probably won’t be much higher right now since the market will be flooded with pitchers of his quality both this winter and at next July’s trade deadline. That leads to an interesting dilemma of how to view it, but Tim Britton of the Athletic offered this unique solution to it:

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For reference, the San Diego Padres signed Brad Hand to a three year, $19.75 million dollar deal prior to this season that included a club option for 2021.  Hand, who was coming off a solid season for San Diego, didn’t have much of a track record prior to the contract. The Padres believed that Hand was about to blossom, and he took off this season, racking up 24 saves and pitching to a 3.05 ERA before getting dealt to the Cleveland Indians last week. After Hand had proven his value, the Indians gave up one of the top catching prospects in baseball, Francisco Mejia, to land Hand for the next few years. There’s no question that Mejia would still be an Indian if Hand was only under team control for one more year.

The Mets have the ability to offer a similar type of deal to Wheeler this winter, who is poised to earn between $4 and $5 million dollars in salary arbitration since his salary was so depressed due to the surgery. Wheeler would likely jump at the chance for some short term financial security given his injury history and probably could be inked to a three year deal worth between $24-$30 million. That deal would not only give the Mets a potential bargain if Wheeler continues to show he has turned the corner, but it would give them an excellent chance to cash in on him if 2019 doesn’t go according to plan.

The Mets should seriously consider an extension like that with Wheeler if they aren’t able to move him before the trade deadline. Wheeler has certainly shown that he may have finally become a reliable member of the starting rotation, and the Mets’ best chance to win next season is with their current top four starters (Wheeler, deGrom, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard) healthy and performing at the top of their game. Committing to this path would require a significant investment in free agency, but that is something that the franchise is long overdue for. The worst thing the Mets could do is simply hang on to Wheeler and let him play out the last year of his deal, especially since his return as a rental player would be significantly less than it is now.