Todd Nelson took over the Edmonton Oilers bench solo following a 4-1 loss to the Calgary Flames almost two weeks ago, and has coached in five games. Nelson has won two of those games, and has led the Oil to points in four of the five, going 2-1-2 to this point. Record wise, that’s pretty good, and if extended out the rest of the season is vastly better than any stretch Dallas Eakins ever had in Edmonton.
Many people think that Nelson is coaching for the job next year, which is certainly the mentality that the first time NHL head coach should have, but I don’t think it’s a good idea for Edmonton moving forward. Why? Plenty of reasons, really.
Let’s start with the eye test things before we get into the numbers. Todd Nelson is a rookie head coach in the NHL, and will need to go through the learning process, just as Dallas Eakins did a season ago. He’ll need to adjust his systems and his style to the NHL game, and will need to learn on the fly. That’s a recipe for a bumpy road, something Edmonton can’t afford.
He’s also a guy that, while originally from outside the organization, has been part of this rebuild and likely goes along the same line of thinking as his bosses do. The Oilers need different voices, not more of the same coming up and into a major role. Now, Nelson did enjoy some success in Oklahoma City, and we will touch on that in a bit.
People will say by the eye, Nelson has improved the Oilers, and to a degree that is correct. Edmonton does seem to be more willing to go to the tough areas and play a little more physical, and the Oilers are shooting a little bit more, but these are things that many coaches can get out of their teams.
Nelson’s Oilers are winning more games because things are starting to finally average out. The goaltending is starting to return to form, as Ben Scrivens is starting to look more like himself and Viktor Fasth is beginning to come around. The power-play is starting to wake up as well, and is climbing back up to normal rates. It’s a slow climb, but it is happening. Those things alone have helped Edmonton attain more success.
Nelson seems like a real nice guy, hell even a smart guy, but he can’t control whether or not his goalies have a meltdown. He’s gotten a little bit lucky in that regard to this point.
Speaking of luck, the Oilers’ PDO has also shot up since Nelson took over. When Eakins was behind the bench, Edmonton’s PDO was one of the worst in the NHL, basically saying that Edmonton was the most unlucky team in the league. You’d find few people that won’t agree with that.
Under Nelson, that PDO has risen thanks to stronger goaltending. That isn’t a coaching thing, that is a goalie finally figuring things out and playing like an average NHL’er. That’s things averaging out, just as smart people have been saying for months now.
The Oilers possession stats have actually gotten worse under the Nelson/MacTavish reign too, down from solid numbers under Dallas Eakins. Possession stats aren’t everything, but they are important and Edmonton is starting to regress in this area once again.
Good possession stats don’t make good teams, but good teams have good possession stats. It was a small area of the game, but Edmonton was getting better in it under Eakins. Since the day he was fired, it’s gotten worse, a bad sign in my eyes.
Nelson has had success in the AHL, making the playoffs every year since taking over in Oklahoma City, but the AHL is a totally different beast. Dallas Eakins had success at that level as well, but was unable to translate it in his first NHL job. Very rarely does the translation happen in the first job, making Nelson a bit of a risk.
Just because you win in the AHL doesn’t mean you’ll win in the NHL.
The Oilers need a veteran head coach that knows how to win and knows how to teach younger talent at the NHL level. Honestly, Tom Renney was a perfect choice, but Edmonton botched that one up pretty badly. This summer, there will be a number of bigger name coaches out there who know how to win and who have developed young talent at this level.
Those guys also all have one big thing in common, an outside voice, which is badly needed in Edmonton. While I have lost faith in Craig MacTavish, I still believe he is a smart guy, but he just needs another voice. A real veteran coach from outside could be that voice.
Mike Babcock, the best coach in the NHL, could be on the market, while Ron Wilson, Paul MacLean, Pete DeBoer and Dan Bylsma are already out there. Potentially joining them? If things don’t turn around in Boston, Claude Julien could be job hunting, while Todd McLellan could pay the price in San Jose should the Sharks fall out early again.
All of those guys are improvements, veteran coaches with a style, who have won to a degree, and who can develop talent. Edmonton has to get this next coach right, and just giving it to a rookie like Nelson isn’t the right idea.
What does Nelson have to do to keep this job? He’s got to go over .500 in my mind the rest of the way, meaning at least 22 total wins as the head coach. It’s a lofty task, but I’m only handing him this job if he forces my hand and gets this team winning and doing the right things on a consistent basis, not just right after some changes.
I like Todd Nelson, he’s smart, he’s a good guy. That said, I don’t think it would be wise to just hand him the job. It is in Edmonton’s best interest to look at the market this summer and do a large spanning search. You have to find the right guy, hopefully a veteran guy and a new voice.
Will MacT do this? I’m not sure, but I certainly hope Bob Nicholson will. If Edmonton ever wants to move forward, coaching must be set in stone. It’s a big item in what is shaping up to be an interesting summer.
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