6. Nikolaj Ehlers
Team: Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL. 2nd in the Q.
97 Points, 0.713 Winning Percentage
Birthdate: February 14, 1996 (Mid)
Vitals: 5’11”; 163 –– Position: Left Wing
After Draisaitl and Reinhart, Ehlers is the highest scoring draft eligible player from the CHL. His 104 points (1.65 PPG) is very good. His even strength scoring (0.89 PPG) and NHLE (38 by Desjardin and 35 by Vollman) all suggest a projectable impact forward at the NHL level.
The concerns about Ehlers are twofold and neither are very convincing. The first is the same old song about size. Ehlers is a smallish player (5’11 and 163), but I put more weight in scoring and range of skill than I do size. The second is team related. Ehlers happens to play on a dominant QMJHL team, a team that boasts last year’s 3rd OV pick Jonathan Drouin.
However, when Rhys J looked at Ehlers’ production (with a hat tip to @MoneyPuck_), he found that “the majority of Ehlers’ even strength offence (around 70%) also came with Drouin on the bench.” So, concerns that Ehlers’ production was boosted by Drouin are misplaced. Moreover, we can see that Halifax’s impressive 65% even strength goal share jumps to a lofty c. 77% with Ehlers on the ice (+12%). One real area, however, where Ehlers’ team strength shines is in Ehlers’ lowish IPP (c. 71%). Also, compared to his peers, extraskater estimates that he gets a lot of ice time (26 eTOI/60).
Ehlers projects to be an impact scoring forward. Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News writes, “An incredibly skilled forward, Ehlers makes plays at high speeds and doesn’t mind going to the tough areas in order to score.” Elite Prospects notes, “Ehlers is an explosive player who can beat even the quickest defensemen wide with his speed.”
He’s got speed, creativity and is a pure offensive weapon. Giddy up!
7. Kevin Fiala
Team: HV71, SHL
Birthdate: July 22, 1996 (Early)
Vitals: 5’10”; 181 –– Position: Center/Wing
A bit of a revalation. Fiala appeared on my radar when the folks at Red Line and Corey Pronman of ESPN started to move him up the dial. Lowetide also caught the wave and wrote about it here.
Fiala, unlike Nylander, spent most of the season playing in Sweden’s junior league (SuperElit), where he put up nearly a point per game (for reference the year prior Nylander scored 43 points in 27 games in the same league). He did, however, get an extended stay in the top Swedish men’s league (SHL) this year. And, while there Fiala performed very, very well. He scored 11 points in 17 games (9 of them at even strength), good enough for an NHLE of 41 (small sample alert).
Comparing only the SHL seasons of Nylander and Fiala, Fiala comes out looking the better. Not only does he outscore him, he also generated more shots on net (8.92 shots per 60 to Nylander’s 4.81 in all disciplines). He also distinguished himself by playing in three World Champions for his native Switzerland (WJC-U18, WJC-U20 and WC). At the junior level of international play, Fiala (not quite on Nylander’s level) excelled. He managed 9 points in 5 WJC-U18 games and 5 points in 5 WJC-U20 games.
Like Ehlers and Nylander, Fiala is projected as a dynamic, impact scoring forward at the NHL level. Elite prospects writes, “He is a respectable and shifty skater with quick legs and explosive acceleration. Fiala owns a slick skill-set with soft hands, good stickhandling and brilliant puck-control.” Nearly every scouting report, however, (to a much greater degree than Ehlers and Nylander) mentions Fiala’s defensive liabilities. See, here, here, here and here.
8. Michael Dal Colle
Team: Oshawa Generals, OHL. 1st in Eastern Conference.
90 Points, 0.662 Winning Percentage (5th in the OHL)
Birthdate: June 20, 1996 (Early)
Vitals: 6’2″; 171 –– Position: Left Wing
Occasionally put in the conversation with the top 3 centers (Bennett, Draisaitl and Reinhart), Dal Colle is the best “power-winger” in the draft class. What keeps Dal Colle apart from the top of the rankings is his lack of elite (at this level) even strength scoring (he’s a full 0.31 PPG off Bennett’s pace). That said, Dal Colle boasts some very nice qualities. Chiefly among those qualities are his relative youth (he’s one of the younger prospects) and his impact forward projectable NHLE (35).
One question mark for Dal Colle relates to team and linemate strength. His Oshawa Generals were very good this year and you can see that they only received a modest bump in even strength goals for (+4%) with him on the ice. However, a look at his generous IPP (c. 86%) suggests Dal Colle was an offensive motor when on the ice.
Dal Colle is projected as an impact NHL power forward. By this I mean he generally uses his size and net presence to generate offence rather than stick-handling and puck possession. Brock Otten of OHL Prospects writes:
His wrist shot is phenomenal, more specifically it’s release. And he uses his body (6’2) to shield the puck well to create the space he needs to get it off. Dal Colle is going to score his share of goals in the NHL. He’s improved his skating a lot since joining the league and is now terrific at coming off the wall and creating chances, showcasing a more explosive stride.
And Red Line writes, “[Dal Colle] goes hard to the net at every opportunity… Wins puck battles along the boards and in front of the net… Has a sniper’s release with very soft hands in close.”
9. Aaron Ekblad
Team: Barrie Colts, OHL. 4th in Eastern Conference.
77 Points, 0.566 Winning Percentage (T-8th in the OHL)
Birthdate: February 7, 1996 (Mid)
Vitals: 6’4″; 217 –– Position: Defence (Right Shot)
The final two picks of my top ten represent the most controversial picks of my rankings. Aaron Ekblad, revealed this week as a consensus 1st OV by Bob McKenzie, is generally considered to go 1st or 2nd overall. For a variety of reasons, I think that would be a mistake.
As a rule of thumb, I believe taking defensemen in the top ten is a bad idea (see my comments and the links provided above under the heading “position”). But, drafting players is about drafting individuals as much as it is about taking account of historical trends.
My concerns over Ekblad stem largely from two things. First, his even strength scoring leaves a fair amount to be desired. Lowetide looked at some of the top rated CHL defensemen here recently. As you can see, in their draft years both Darnell Nurse (last year’s 7th OV) and Seth Jones (last year’s 4th OV) outscored him at evens (the latter handily). Using extraskater’s even strength P/60 metric for this year’s draft eligible defensemen, Ekblad ranks 16th. Ekblad appears, however to be a very good power play scorer (see the Lowetide link above, where Ekblad ranks 1st in power play PPG against the same players). Though I rank even strength scoring higher than power play scoring, a defender who can quarterback the power play and possesses a strong point shot (both attributes Ekblad is noted for) has value.
Second, Ekblad doesn’t appear to improve his team’s even strength goals for percentage. With him on the ice, the Colts’ GF% improves about a percentage point. That said, his IPP of c. 35% is very good for a defenseman.
Even with these reservations, Ekblad clearly projects to have a good, long career in the NHL. Brock Otten of OHL Prospects writes,
His ability and confidence as a puck mover really took off this year (and helped to secure his appointment as the OHL’s defenseman of the year). He looks confident skating the puck out of the zone now and is actually taking chances across the opposing blueline, using his size to protect the puck. A lot of his success in doing that also has to do with the improvements he’s made to his first few steps and overall top skating gear. He also grew leaps and bounds as a powerplay QB this year, doing a much better job of getting in position to use his mammoth point shot.
TSN’s Craig Button notes Ekblad’s range of skill: “Aaron is a pillar defenceman who can play 25 minutes+ and all important situations.” Ben Kerr notes his defensive acumen, writing, “Even with that great offensive potential, he’s even better defensively… He also has strong positioning and good hockey sense and defensive instincts.”
10. Nikolay Goldobin
Team: Sarnia Sting, OHL. 10th in Western Conference.
41 Points, 0.301 Winning Percentage (20th in the OHL)
Birthdate: October 7, 1996 (Late)
Vitals: 6’0″; 185 –– Position: Right Wing
For my 10th pick, I again court controversy. The highest ranking I’ve found for Goldobin is 18th (Red Line). Mostly he is ranked out of the first round (after the 30th pick). Ranking Goldobin 10th, however, is not some exercise in flaunting the consensus. I think he deserves to be here on reasonable, objective grounds.
Let’s start with the obvious. Goldobin’s even strength scoring (0.94 PPG) ranks among the elite of the draft class. In fact, only Bennett (1.04), Fabbri (0.97) and Reinhart (0.95) come out above him. Moreover, his NHLE projects him as impact NHL forward (35). These numbers alone put him in the top 10 conversation, in my opinion.
But, there’s more. Goldobin was on a wasteland of a team. The dreadful Sarnia Sting was the worst team in the OHL this year. At even strength, they managed a paltry 36% of the goals. With Goldobin on the ice, that number rises dramatically to c. 48% (+11%). Moreover, in his draft-1 year, Goldobin scored at a point per game clip (68 30-38-68).
If there are drawbacks to Goldobin’s numbers, they are threefold. First, extraskater estimates his time on ice at a huge 27.7 minutes per 60 (for reference this is about the same as Reinhart played, but considerably more than Draisaitl or Bennett). Second, his IPP is a lowish c. 72%. Finally, third, Goldobin is one of the older prospects in this year’s draft.
Goldobin projects as an impact scoring NHL forward. Red Line writes, “An exceptional puckhandler with eye-popping moves. Is a tremendous pure offensive talent. Quick hands and is lightning fast with an extra separation gear… Great vision.” And, Ben Kerr writes, “Goldobin is a very good skater. His top end speed and his acceleration are both well above average. He also has outstanding agility and edgework which makes him extremely elusive both off the rush and in the cycle game.”
The question marks surrounding Goldobin range from the silly (concerns about his +/- stats, mentioned in passing here and here), to the overwrought (concerns about him bolting to the KHL, mentioned near everywhere, see, for example, here, here and here), to the very real, but perhaps overwrought (his work ethic and defensive acumen).
Because I value well-rounded players who display a range of skill, I take this last concern seriously. However, scouting reports on Goldobin contain enough tells to suggest some of the concern may be over-heated bias. For example, Red Line, writes, Goldobin is a
one dimensional winger… [with] spotty work ethic. Engaged and interested when the puck is on his stick, but tends to disappear for long stretches and loses interest away from the puck… Prefers to stay away from contact… Can be selfish at times. Needs tons of work on his non-existent backchecking and defensive awareness.
This report leads to the “projection: Top line scoring winger, or KHL star. Style compares to: Alexander Semin.”
That’s interesting for a couple of reasons. Notably, Semin is a #fancystats darling who carries a huge negative perception among the main stream hockey media and large portions of the fan base. What many analysts have found is that Semin suffers from a variety of biases related to everything from his character to how he plays the game. Few of the biases, however, manage to explain away how good Semin actually is. See here, here, here, here and here.
While I take the concerns over Goldobin’s defensive play and competitiveness seriously (perhaps best stated by Brock Otten of OHL Prospects), I can’t help noting the long history of NHL scouts and decision makers reliably doing two things: 1) under-rating offence and the new-world hockey maxim “the best defence is a good offence” (Darryl Sutter has been busy lately upending worn out ideas. See here, here and here); and 2) hating on Russians.
One straightforward counterpoint to these reports is the scouting report of the NHL’s Mike Morreale. He writes, “Goldobin is considered a very creative player with a solid two-way game.” And, he quotes from Central Scouting’s Chris Edwards, who claims,
[Goldobin] has a high energy and is smooth out there. He’s got good playmaking ability and he probably would have a lot more points if players were able to finish for him. He doesn’t always need the puck, but he sets up linemates. He’s the type of kid who receives a lot of ice time because he plays a complete game.
For my money, Goldobin has the NHL goods. He’s got speed, skill and a ton of even strength scoring. Some lucky bastard team is going to pick a star late in the first or early in the second round.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
