Honorable Mentions
These players are all worthy of top ten consideration in my opinion. In fact, on any given day one of them may find himself unseating Goldobin for that 10th spot. Here, in no particular order, are 3 honorable mentions.
Jake Virtanen
Team: Calgary Hitmen, WHL. 3rd in Eastern Conference.
103 points. 0.715 Winning percentage (T-3rd in the WHL)
Birthdate: August 17, 1996 (Early)
Vitals: 6’1″; 210 –– Position: Left Wing
Jake Virtanen’s even strength goals (a whopping 32!) and extremely early birthdate have him in the mix. And, based on extraskater’s estimated TOI (all disciplines) he did his scoring in relatively little time.
Ultimately, I hold him back from the elite top ten for a pair of reasons: 1) without shooting data, I can’t be certain his goal scoring isn’t luck-related; and, 2) while his goal scoring is prolific, his even strength scoring and NHLE numbers leave something to be desired relative to the top of the draft class.
Nikita Scherbak
Team: Saskatoon Blades, WHL. 11th in Eastern Conference.
37 points. 0.257 Winning percentage (20th in the WHL)
Birthdate: December 30, 1995 (Late-Mid)
Vitals: 6’2″; 174 –– Position: Right Wing
Like Goldobin, Scherbak was buried on a god-awful team. The Blades managed to score just 40% of even strength goals. With Scherbak on the ice, that number jumps to an impressive c. 54% (+14%). Combined with a very good IPP (c. 84%), Scherbak has all the markings of a man apart on his team.
Like Virtanen, what keeps Scherbak behind is the lack of even strength scoring (again, relative to his top ranked draft peers) and his modest NHLE numbers.
Ivan Barbashev
Team: Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL. 12th in the Q.
69 Points, 0.507 Winning Percentage
Birthdate: December 14, 1995 (Late-Mid)
Vitals: 6’1″; 190 –– Position: Center
Barbashev is an interesting prospect insofar as he’s a Russian that gets un-stereotypically praised for his defensive play and leadership qualities. But, what brings him into the mix with the top ten is his abilities as a center, his strong overall PPG scoring and his near impact forward NHLE numbers (33 by Desjardins and 30 by Vollman).
He’s kept out of the top ten because his scoring at even strength is shy of the standard, his team’s GF% only rises a modest amount with him on the ice (+3.5), and extraskater estimates that he enjoyed a lot of time on ice to put up his points (c. 27 minutes per 60).
Final Look
This is a curious draft class. I feel that a lot of potential impact forwards are among the top ten or so players listed here. Many of them, however, have a variety of unfair aspersions cast against them.
For the most part, I’ve relied upon even strength scoring and NHLEs to guide my judgment as I believe they are strong, objective indicators of future NHL success.
Thanks for reading!
For reference, here’s a chart of the players above and where they rank on a variety of mainline scouting services:
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