To Wait, Sign Or Trade? That is the Question

The Oilers have allowed 101 shots in their last 2 games, they are 5^th worst in the league in shots against. They have allowed a league worst 192 goals against. They are 3^rd worst Corsi For %.

So what am I getting at? Well this is no surprise to Edmonton fans, but any way you try and look at this it leads to the same ole statement, the Oilers defense is just not good enough. There is no way, the way this team is built right now, that they are ever going to be able to compete with the league’s heavyweights like Chicago, Anaheim, San Jose, Boston, you get the point.

Now, the Oilers have some pretty good prospects right now sitting on the farm and one (Darnell Nurse) playing in junior. There is also the very real possibility of drafting stalwart defenseman Aaron Ekblad with the lottery pick the Oilers are sure to have. But is it worth it to wait for these prospects to turn out? I’ve heard people say that a player like Ekblad can play right away, step into the NHL the first season after his draft, there’s also a chance that Nurse might be ready next year, and you have to think that Swedish prospect Oscar Klefbom will get a sniff next year too. Put those three along with Martin Marincin and hell, you’ve got a good stable of young defensemen.

WAIT, DAVE ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME??? Yeah ok, I get it, there is no way the Oilers will be ok if they go with 4 rookies playing defense for them next year. So what do we do? This season we’ve seen emergence of Marincin, he’s been great ever since being called up from OKC. The kid is playing top 4 minutes right now and the mistakes are so infrequent you’d think he’s been in the league for years.

But

But, like I said there is no way that playing 4 rookie defenseman next season will be successful. The best any NHL team is to bring in one rookie each season to play in a bottom pair and work his way up the line up. This is what’s happening with Marincin this season and we can only hope will happen with one of either Nurse, Klefbom and possible Ekblad if he’s selected by the Oil.

So what needs to happen? Craig MacTavish must go out and get the top pairing defenseman via trade or free agency. The free agent pool is going to be thin this offseason. Right now the UFA’s scheduled for this season that may fill this role are;

Dan Boyle, at 37 his career is in the down swing. Still capable of playing big minutes but for the Oilers to sign him they’ll have to over pay and over extend the term. Signing Dan Boyle may help for a year or two but the money will be too much for what you are going to get out of him.

Brooks Orpik, a good stay at home defense man playing on a really good team. It would be interesting to see how much playing on the Penguins affects his numbers. Regardless though I don’t think Orpik is a top pairing defender as he only averages 21 minutes per game. He’s hardnosed and full of truculence but I don’t think he fits the top pairing r oll required.

Dan Girardi, at 29 Girardi is probably my favorite option. He can play big minutes, stays healthy, can put up points and play the body. That’s the complete package right there. Problem is there is no way he is going to hit the free agent market. In fact I think the fact that Rangers GM Glenn Sather is letting teams talk to Ryan Callahan’s agent shows that he would rather use the money on one of his best defensemen than let him go to free agency.

Matt Niskanen, Another Penguins D-man, He’s young (27) and his numbers have been good. Like Orpik though I have to wonder if his numbers are inflated due to who he’s playing with. I also think that his 20 minutes average ice time/game is about his max, so not exactly a guy you’d rely upon to be playing the bulk of the minutes for you night in and night out.

Nikita Nikitin, he’s similar to everyone else on the list, he’s a 20 minute per night guy who has some size to go along with a bit of offense. His defense seems to be improving each, and of course Bob Stauffer won’t stop talking about him on his Oilers Now show. Stauffer is more connected to the Oilers then most so there may be something there. Its possible Nikitin may be a guy MacT goes after in a trade this season rather than waiting for free agency.

A Trade

As you can see above there is only maybe one real option for a real number one or two defenseman on that list above. The Oilers can’t afford to wait for their prospects to start playing so the next option is filling that need via trade.

The thing about a trade of this calibre and this magnitude is there is very little chance that a player of this ilk becomes available during the season. These guys are generally playing on good teams that have a chance at the playoffs and their respective GM’s aren’t going to be too keen on departing with arguably the most important position during the playoff push.

A guy that might be available now is Brian Campbell from the Florida Panthers, he’s a guy I really like for a few reasons. He plays huge minutes (30/gm) on a team that isn’t that good and his numbers are still very reasonable. Florida is a struggling team both on the ice and financially and may be willing to move a guy like Campbell for the right price.

The same can be said about Buffalo’s Tyler Myers and Christian Erhoff. The Sabres are beginning their rebuild and may be open to trading a guy like Erhoff, who would immediately come in to Edmonton and be their best defenseman. Myers would be a little bit riskier of a deal, as his play is inconsistent, but to get a d-man of that size who can skate would, IMO, be a welcome move.

There have also been rumors of guys like Kris Letang, Keith Yandle and of course the always mentioned Shea Weber. The likelyhood of getting one of these three is even lower but their names just don’t seem to go away, in fact I believe it was Elliotte Friedman who said that Nashville is going to weigh their options in the offseason on what exactly to do with arguably the best defenseman in the NHL.

Earlier today Rob Soria wrote a really good article about the possibility of trading both Eberle and Yakupov and last Tuesday on Oilers Rig Radio, Kady Hobbins said that if the team were to trade Eberle “it would be a trade so good that fans probably wouldn’t care”. Well folks, if a deal for a number one defenseman is on the horizon, MacT sure has tough decisions to make and I for one wouldn’t want to be in his shoes. It’s looking more and more likely that the time to be bold is just about here.

Thanks for Reading

Don’t forget about The Oilers Rig Live at Legends Sports Bar and Taphouse, March 20^th. Pre-Game show, post game show, trivia, prizes, Silent Auction! #BETHERE