Yesterday, Alex Thomas wrote about what he thinks was the Oilers disastrous weekend, and why their two losses will have a big impact on the team’s playoff chances.
He’s dead wrong.
Sure, they dropped 2 consecutive games against teams on the second half of back-to-backs (and should have at least been able to beat the Stars if not the Rangers), and they’ve almost lost the points cushion their 7-1 start gave them, but there’s a difference in the way the team doesn’t seem to give up as quickly when they get down by a goal or two. There is cause for concern but there are so many things happening on the ice that are markedly better over last season that it’s hard to stay down on this team for too long.
Room for Improvement?
The question I’ve had all along is this: Are the Oilers good enough to compete with the better teams in the league? The answer isn’t as easy as I’d like.
Are there things that they need to improve? Absolutely.
One of the glaring problems has been giving up a very early goal; in 8 of their 16 games, they’ve given up a goal in the first 3 minutes of the first.
Oilers have given up a goal at 1:46, 1:22, 2:37, 1:29, 13 seconds, 1:57, 28 seconds and 1:20. But only trailed at the 1st intermission once
— Rob Tychkowski (@Sun_Tychkowski) November 14, 2016
Other than the first 3 minutes of games, they seem to be putting forth a complete effort, and that’s a shift from last year (where the collapse would be in the entire second period, or the last half of the third). It’s no secret that the Oilers are better than they’ve been in the past; Connor McDavid is here and he’s been driving play the way we expected him to. He’s goalless in his last 7, but he’s amassed 14 points over that time so it’s not like he’s in a points slump. What isn’t clear, however, is where the offence is coming from when it’s not McDavid. As much as I like Pat Maroon’s game, there’s really no reason he should be the team’s leading goal scorer, not in a lineup that also includes Connor McDavid.
The Upside
The Edmonton Oilers are still in a playoff spot, and are playing above .500 hockey on the year so far. (As an aside, the last time the Oilers were at or above .500* (before this season) was January 31, 2013. That was the 6th game of the lockout-shortened season, and the Oilers haven’t had a sniff of that since. Neither Taylor Hall’s 80 point season in 2013-14 nor Jordan Eberle’s 65 point campaign the following year led the Oilers above that middling mark, and it wasn’t for lack of effort on either of their parts.)
After a blistering (and clearly unsustainable) 7-2 start, the Oilers have settled into what looks like the kind of team they’ll be for the rest of the season: playing slightly above .500 hockey, scoring some goals and not letting the goalies get lit up on a regular basis.
For whatever reason, the Pacific Division seems a bit weaker this year, and the Oilers with 19 points sit atop those standings. With the playoff format being as it is, they’d be in the postseason if the playoffs started tomorrow, and they’d have a chance against any of the other playoff teams in the West. That’s not something that can be said about past squads, so that it definitely a step in the right direction.
As for some of the new additions: Adam Larsson is playing well (though not the 25 minutes per game Peter Chiarelli promised), and is starting to win fans over with his ability to suppress opposition chances. Milan Lucic, while not exactly living up to the expectations his contract would suggest, has been solid at times (though I’m still waiting for that swagger he talked about). Kris Russell was surprisingly (?) effective in the first few games, but he’s been out with an injury so I’m not sure how that will transfer later in the season.
All in all, the team is better, and despite their slide last weekend, I don’t know if they’ve played themselves out of the playoffs yet. Obviously, anything can happen (I mean, Donald Trump is the president of the United States), but I see that this team can hold on longer and better than in the past, and I think that will bode well for a playoff push. What a revelation – the opportunity to be playing meaningful games in the new year.
It’s not time to plan the parade just yet, but at the beginning of the season I said that I needed 20 games to believe that they were for real. Given the slide over the last 8, I think a few more games is necessary.
Ask me again after 25.
*I used Hockeydb’s weighted calculations for that, which accounts for loser points.
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