With free agency rapidly approaching, the Edmonton Oilers will have some important decisions to make. No internal decision will be more important than the future of Justin Schultz, who is a restricted free agent for the second summer in a row.
Boxcars:
When he signed in July of 2012, many expected Schultz to come to Edmonton and light it up. He was supposed to be the power-play quarterback and elite puck-moving presence that the team lacked. In the AHL, during the lock-out, he showed that promise and then some. In the NHL, he was good, but inconsistent.
His second season, 2013-14, was a complete disaster, while the 2014-15 season was just as bad to the eyes. Is Schultz at least producing the offense?
As we see here, Schultz posted decent numbers during his rookie season, 27 points in 48 games, but has declined since then. He managed only 33 points in 74 games last year, and only 31 points in 81 games this year. He’s actually become less effective offensively over his three year career.
For a guy with defensive issues, this simply is not good enough.
The Eye Test:
As an observer of the game, Justin Schultz has been less than stellar in Edmonton. His passing game is not what many thought it would be. He struggles to find his target with any accuracy, and is a guy who fires the puck up like a grenade from time to time. It’s an area he, surprisingly, struggles in.
He doesn’t shoot the puck nearly enough, which is disappointing because he actually has a pretty solid shot. On the power-play, he’s been far less effective than he should be. It’s hurt Edmonton’s unit, and it’s hurt Schultz’s career to this point.
Defensively, the issues are everywhere. When the opposition comes in on the forecheck, Schultz folds like a lawn chair. Far too often he simply falls out of the battle, giving the puck away with ease. When it comes to physical play, his game is nonexistent, he’s almost afraid to throw a hit.
His position play isn’t very good either. Far too often you can find Schultz running around, chasing the puck. This leads to situations where players are wide open in high-percentage scoring areas. Schultz loses his man far too often, he has too much chaos in his game.
In three years, he’s seemingly learned very little about defensive play in the NHL, which makes him a liability on the ice. He’s a chaos blue without the dominating offensive statistics. That’s an issue.
HERO:
Here is the HERO chart for our man Justin:
While Schultz is getting top-pairing ice time, the chart shows him as below replacement level (!) when it comes to suppressing shots. As for generating shots, he checks in as a second pairing defender. That second pairing rating also applies to his SOG rates.
The Money:
Justin Schultz made $3.675 million this past season, meaning the Oilers would have to qualify him at that number. If Schultz accepts, it’s another one-year deal at that number. If not, then Edmonton’s options are limited.
If this goes to arbitration, Schultz will likely ask for more money, which the Oilers would be crazy to give him. They could have taken him to club elected arbitration to ask for a decrease in pay, but I believe that window has already passed, or it will in short order.
Edmonton’s only other options? Negotiate a fair deal before a hearing, trade Justin Schultz’s RFA rights, or simply walk away from the player for nothing, allowing him to be an unrestricted free agent for the second time in his career.
My Verdict:
Justin Schultz does not have Norris Trophy potential like Craig MacTavish said a year ago, and he’s certainly not an elite puck-moving defender. He is, at the moment, a bottom-pairing defender when it comes to five-on-five play.
If you put Schultz in a position with heavy offensive zone starts, weak-to-middling opposition and a shut-down partner, he’ll post decent numbers. The problem is, you can’t ride him for roughly 23 minutes a night, this is the role of a player who averages between 18 and 19 minutes a night.
You can give Schultz tons of power-play time, but he should be no where near the penalty kill, and shouldn’t even be thought of for shut-down minutes at this point and time. He’s an offensive defender, a specialist who needs to be better.
The best way he can help Edmonton? Spend a year on the third-pairing in a developmental role, learning under Todd McLellan and, finally, developing as a player.
Problem is, $3.675 million is far too much for that role. Edmonton needs to add two defenders in front of Schultz, and somehow get him at a lesser cap hit. At this point, it looks impossible.
I wouldn’t walk away from Schultz for nothing, that’s bad asset management. What I would do, however, is look to move his RFA rights in a trade for a different kind of defender, one who better fits Edmonton’s needs.
With Oscar Klefbom here, Darnell Nurse on the way, Mark Fayne still in his prime and guys developing on the farm, Edmonton can afford to move Schultz.
Unfortunately, just three years after he signed, I don’t think this relationship is going to work long term. Schultz is a chaos blue on a team that needs steady and stable. A trade is probably the best option for this situation.
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