Whats wrong with the Oilers? Just ask Dave Lumley

The Oilers had a tough luck night and despite winning possession, they lost the game. I’m sure that Brian Burke went to bed last night thinking, “stupid math nerds, what do they know?” Even the MSM didn’t wait to start piling on analytics supporters. The Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson tweeted:

My understanding is that analytics is all about sample size, which one game certainly doesn’t represent, but I guess when the methods you’ve been using for 30 years are threatened a need is felt to pile on.

The Oilers off-season strategy of adding good possession players seems to have worked. They possessed the puck for most of the evening and out-shot the Flames. However, two weaknesses from last year were still apparent: the Oilers were outscored 5X5 and the goaltending was poor (dare I say, “Dubnykian?”).

However, did the Oilers lose for an altogether different reason? Is it possible that despite their talent, the team just doesn’t know how to win?

Enter Dave Lumley.

Can you really argue with Lumley’s point? The Oilers have a lineup with 3 first overall picks and a few other highly touted players and still couldn’t find a way to beat the lunch bucket Flames- despite dominating for most of the game. After one game it is probably too soon to to rush to quick judgments, but the Lumley’s thoughts will make for an interesting point of discussion as the season progresses.

Other thoughts

• Is it just me, or wasn’t Fasth the better of the two goalies based on training camp? With Hunt making the squad and Marincin being sent down one has to wonder what training camp was even for.
• Also on training camp, would it not have made more sense to dress the full lineup for the final game of the pre-season rather than running a test run during the first game that counts? It looked as though during the first few minutes that the players were lost.
• Yakupov looked committed on defense and a far more responsible player last night. Hopefully it is not a mirage.
• Draisaitl on a line with Yakupov and Pouliot looked just fine to me.
• While I respect their new place in the game, I’m not a huge stats guy. However, I do know that the Tweet offered by Jim Matheson above shows a very limited understanding of analytics. The new sets of data can’t be labeled a ‘failure’ based on the result of one game. Actually, if the Oilers hold the edge in possession the way they did last night , or even close, the odds are they will be a much improved team.
• Sweater throw last night? Come away from the ledge. Its one game.