Why The Sky Isn’t Falling

Bet you didn’t expect this from me, but here it is. I’m here to tell you why the sky isn’t falling in Edmonton, even though a 1-5-1 record would indicate that it is just seven games into the season. Things aren’t ideal in Edmonton right now, but things aren’t all bad, and there are reasons to believe this team can turn it around and still get into the dance.

To start, I want to say that I did pick this team to make the playoffs before the season began, and I can’t switch that seven games into it, even if I want to. Trust me, there are times were I’d love to switch my prediction here in the early going, but I’ll stick with it.

After Tuesday night’s post-game show I decided to go looking at positives for the Oilers, and I found quite a few. Let’s take a look at them.

The Offense:

The Oilers offense is top ten in the NHL right now. Think about that, the Oilers are a top ten team when it comes to putting the puck into the net. They have offensive talent in Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Sam Gagner and Jordan Eberle who aren’t yet fully contributing, and yet they are still a top ten offense.

For all but two games (Washington, Montreal) the Oilers have gotten decent offensive production. That’s pretty good. They’re getting a decent amount of shots on net, getting some quality scoring chances and are finding the back of the net. Once the top end talent takes over and breaks the dam, things are just going to get better here.

The fact that Edmonton has a top ten offense is a big reason for optimism, because goals for won’t be an issue with this team. That’s half the battle.

Improved Shots Against:

Let’s get this out of the way early, the goals against is brutal, unacceptable even. The Oilers have given up a league worst 32 goals in seven games, but I can honestly make a case that at least 15 of those goals shouldn’t have found the back of the net. That’s a problem within it’s own, and one that has to get fixed if this team wants to win, but we know that.

The Oilers have really improved their shots against totals, which is a huge plus. It’s an area that has plagued the team for years, and is one they are clearly working on. If they want to be a good team, they have to fix this. So far? So good.

The Oilers are allowing an average of 28.3 shots per game, which is down from last year when they allowed 32.8 shots against per game. That’s over four shots against shaved off, which is a huge amount.

The Oilers were the worst team last year in terms of shot differential, clocking in at a -6. They were almost always out-shot, and it resulted in the team giving up a ton of goals and quality chances. No team would have made the playoffs with those numbers.

This year? The Oilers are 15th in the NHL with a +.1 differential. That’s a 15 spot difference, and one that puts the Oilers in the range they have to be in. That’s big time improvement and makes the Oilers a better team.

Aggressive Coaching Style:

Everyone is ragging on new coach Dallas Eakins, but I like what he is doing, and think he is the right man for the job. As evident from above, the Oilers are a better offensive team and much better shots wise than last year. Those are areas that needed help and have gotten it.

Eakins has also preached that his team keeps attacking when they get a lead, which is something they didn’t do under Ralph Krueger. The team would sit back under RK and try and protect a lead, but under Eakins the mandate is to keep pushing and bury the opponent. It hasn’t paid off yet, but it’s a style that good teams use and I think is a good style for a team with so much offensive talent and an average at best blue-line.

Improved Corsi:

I know what you are all going to say, so let me say it now. No, advanced stats are NOT the end all be all for good hockey, but they do play a roll. I value them, but don’t base everything off of them. There needs to be a fine line, and I believe there is a spot for advanced stats in hockey.

The Oilers are currently a 49.3% corsi team five-on-five, which puts them at 17th in the NHL and just behind the Red Wings and Senators, two sure-fire playoff teams. This corsi rating is much improved over the disaster of last year, and while it doesn’t indicate everything, it should at least indicate there is 5-on-5 improvement for the Oilers. That’s key, because it was a huge area of concern coming into the year.

Oh, by the way the Oilers are in playoff range here too.

Putting It All Together:

What does everything I’ve said above mean? Well a few things. One, the sky isn’t falling in Edmonton yet. Two, this is actually a decent hockey team outside of the terrible goaltending, and one that should probably be 4-3 at the seven game mark instead of 1-5-1. They’re better than the record says, and that stuff usually works itself out through the full 82. The Oilers are playing like a team that should be in the conversation for the playoffs.

The Oilers offense is far from the problem, while their defensive play has improved over last year and their five-on-five play has improved. If this team gets somewhat decent goaltending, they are in good shape right now. Despite everything I’ve said the last few days, the Oilers have plenty of positives. If their goalies right the ship, this team will be in the hunt for the postseason.