Will the Oilers Trade Jeff Petry for a Centre?

“Heroes always make the right decision; I find that seldom happens in my life.”―Judd Nelson

What’s the Right Decision?

Back in my younger days, my brother and I loved to make sports card trades. I can still remember a few of those deals. On one particular summer afternoon, my brother–about ten years old at the time–traded a Ray Bourque rookie card to the kid up the street for $5 and an issue of Beckett Hockey Card Monthly. That was a bad trade, a regrettable decision.

Of course, the stakes are much higher when trading actual hockey players.

As the 2014-15 NHL season nears, Oilers’ general manager Craig MacTavish is faced with a decision. What should he do about the Oiler’s lack of depth at the centre position? Should he stand pat, or should he make a trade for a centre?

Right now, the Oilers’ depth chart at centre looks like this:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Boyd Gordon
Mark Arcobello
Anton Lander
Leon Draisaitl

MacTavish is well-aware that the Oilers are thin at centre, but it looks like he’s content to take a wait-and-see approach. On August 26, MacTavish said (via Cult of Hockey),

We’ve got Leon Draisaitl, which is a big question mark for an 18-year-old’s ability to come in. We’ve got Anton Lander, who has shown an ability to score and be a real good player at the American League level. We’ve got Mark Arcobello, who when we sent him back had two points per game at the American League level or very close [to it]; he’s got potential to fill one of those roles. When you look at our depth chart, I understand and certainly agree with that position having the most question marks.

As I see it, the Oilers will have to answer two questions during training camp. First, is Arcobello a second line centre? And, second, is Leon Draisaitl ready to play centre in the NHL?

Is Mark Arcobello a Second Line Centre?

The Oilers are lacking a proven second line centre. Draisaitl is the second line centre of the future, but Mark Arcobello is the closest thing the Oilers have to a second line centre at the present time. Arcobello lacks pedigree, size, fanfare, and NHL experience, but could he adequately fill the open second line centre spot?

In a post on Lowetide, well-known Oilogosphere contributor “Woodguy” carefully examined Arcobello’s performance during the 2013-14 season. His conclusion: “I’m not as leery about Arco at 2C as I was when I started this little project.” One fact in favour of Arcobello being qualified for the second line centre role: he had the best on-ice Corsi among Oiler regulars.

Is Leon Draisaitl Ready?

Here’s what MacTavish had to say about Draisaitl’s NHL readiness (via Edmonton Journal):

In my mind, Leon’s going to make a very strong case in camp for making our team. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t a strong case. If this decision is easy, he’s staying [rather than go back to junior in Prince Albert]. But like I said, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t make a strong case. He’s stayed here this summer, worked out, but we’ll have to make sure we can protect him in games in some match-ups.

Bruce McCurdy, in an excellent post on Cult of Hockey, argues that Draisaitl should be expected to play in the NHL this season. McCurdy writes, “It’s standard fare for early draft choices in the older half of their draft class to make the jump, particularly if they’re forwards.”

What About a Trade for a Centre?

But what if Arcobello has a bad training camp? What if Draisaitl doesn’t make the team? What if, God forbid, Nugent-Hopkins gets injured during the preseason? If one or more of those things happens, the Oilers might be forced to make a trade for a centre. But who would the Oilers trade?

On August 20, Bob Stauffer–who is well-connected to the Oilers’ front office–said the following on his radio show Oilers Now:

Jeff Petry, to me, has good physical tools. He has strong analytical numbers relative to the rest of the team. But he does not assert his will on the ice. And if he did that, more teams around the National Hockey League would think a lot more highly of Jeff Petry. So he’s a guy to watch as well.

And we’ve talked about the scenarios: potentially Columbus, potentially the New York Islanders, as an an example, for centre positions around the league.

Then Stauffer named one centre: Josh Bailey. It’s plausible that the Oilers would trade Petry for a centre. He’s signed for only one season, and there were rumours earlier this summer that the defenseman was available in a trade.

But should the Oilers trade Petry for Bailey? To me, that’s a bad trade for a few reasons. First, Petry (though many would disagree) was the Oilers best defenseman last season. The Oilers should try to sign him to an extension instead of trading him. Second, if Petry is traded, the Oilers will be counting on a rookie to replace him–either Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom. Third, Bailey hasn’t been playing much at centre. NHL.com lists him as a left winger.

As “Ben” commented the other day on a Lowetide post, trading Petry for a centre like Bailey would be a case of the Oilers “rob[bing] Petry to pay Paul.”