Looking at the recent trade of Nail Yakupov it is hard not to remember when Alexandre Daigle was traded from Ottawa. Both players were first overall selections who famously flopped for the teams who drafted them. In the case of Nail he was an easy player to both like and hate. He was great in the community and at times a spark-plug on the ice. Other moments saw him confused defensively and at times expounding a great deal of energy while producing little, if any, positive results. Yakupov, like Daigle before him, carried the weight of being a former first overall pick and with it the high expectations of local hockey fans on how the player should play and his associated value. This would have been similar to what Daigle and the Senators would have experienced in the late 90’s. In the end Yakupov was sent to St. Louis in a controversial trade which saw the Oilers acquire Zach Pochiro (who?) and a conditional draft choice (which could be as high as a second rounder if Yakupov scores 15 goals this season). In 1998 Daigle was shipped off to the Philadelphia Flyers for what, at the time, was an underwhelming package for a highly touted first overall pick. When compared to the return for Daigle and others did the Oilers receive enough for Nail Yakupov?
It is understandable why the Yakupov trade is controversial. It could be convincingly argued that the Ottawa Senators acquired more for the poster child of busts, Alexandre Daigle, when they received Pat Falloon, Vinny Prospal, and a 2nd round pick in a trade with Philadelphia back in 1998. Granted, Falloon was already approaching the, “bust zone,” himself at that point, but Prospal went on to have a few decent offensive seasons with the Sens. Also, of course, Ottawa received a guaranteed, rather than a conditional, second round pick (which turned into career ECHL’er Chris Bala).
Daigle’s production in Ottawa was superior to Yakupov’s in Edmonton. Daigle played 301 games for the Senators compared to Yakupov’s 252 for Edmonton. Daigle scored 74 goals during that time and his numbers average out to 20 goals and 47 points over 82 games. His best offensive season in the nation’s capital saw him score 26 goals and 51 points.
Yakupov played 252 games for Edmonton and scored 50 goals. His averages would predict him scoring 16 goals and 36 points in 82 games. His best offensive season was his rookie year when he scored 17 goals and 31 points in the 48 game lockout shortened season.
One of the recurring criticisms of Yakupov’s game was his defensive play while in Edmonton. He put up some pretty awful seasons with regards to the imperfect stat of +/-. He had years of: -4, -33, -35, and -16. Daigle was no slouch in this area either and the two could have had some pretty epic battles if they were pro-golfers rather than hockey players. While in Ottawa Daigle had +/- ratings of: -45, -22, -30, -33, and -7. So it is safe to say that neither player was viewed as defensively reliable.
The similarities are striking, but Yakupov’s offensive production was below that of Daigle’s. If we consider that Daigle was the better producer and a more highly touted first overall pick does the return for Yakupov look that poor?
This question is about risk and most of the risk is on the team acquiring Yakupov. He may well go onto score 20-25 goals in a new city or, like Daigle, flounder for a few more seasons while he changes jerseys a few more times. Another point to consider is another forward who was a first overall flop. Patrik Stefan was drafted first overall by Atlanta in 1999. His numbers in Atlanta are eerily similar to Yakupov’s. Stefan played 350 games for the Thrashers and scored 49 goals and 153 points. His numbers average out to 11 goals and 36 points over 82 games. The average for points over 82 games is identical to Yakupov’s. Stefan was traded along with Jaroslav Modry to the Dallas Stars for Niko Kapanen and a 7th round draft pick (which turned into Will O’Neill). Kapanen scored 4 goals in the 60 games he played for Atlanta and O’Neill never skated in the NHL. Considering the Thrashers included Modry in the package with Stefan to acquire little from the Stars one could argue the Oilers received an equal return from the Blues for Yakupov. It depends on the career of the player selected with the draft pick. Again, it all comes down to assessing the risk for the team acquiring Yakupov. If Yakupov goes on to score 15-20 goals this year or next St. Louis looks like they made a great move. If Yakupov fails to turn the corner all the Blues gave up was a third round draft choice and a player who will likely never play in the NHL. It was a low-risk move for St. Louis where the odds of a big payoff are low given the history of acquiring under-performing first overall selections. The Blues, or any team who had interest in acquiring Yakupov, would know the history of forwards like Daigle and Stefan and how they failed to ascend when they were traded from their first teams. This makes giving up too much in terms of assets for a player like Yakupov a risky proposition given the league history with similar players.
What can’t be debated is that the trades mentioned above are retrospectively extremely poor returns for a first overall draft choice. However, the player selected doesn’t keep the value of the first overall pick: his play after the draft determines his value. In the case of players like Daigle, Yakupov, and Stefan their play was underwhelming at best which left their teams with a rapidly spoiling asset. Based on the league history of trading first overall flops it is debatable on whether the Oilers could have received more for Yakupov. In theory the team could have waited and attempted to put in Yakupov in a position to succeed early in the new season in an attempt to bring up his value. Of course the attempt could have also backfired if Yakupov was slow out of the gate and potentially brought his value down. Either way, given the history of trades involving players like Yakupov, it is unlikely he was ever going to bring much in return.
Side Note
When the Oilers traded another high first round flop, Jason Bonsignore (#4 overall, 1994 NHL Entry Draft), they did manage to acquire a former first overall pick in Roman Hamrlik (1992 NHL Entry Draft) in 1997 (along with Paul Comrie). However, they included Bryan Marchment and another first round flop Steve Kelly in the trade.
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