It is finally June, with the 2009-10 NHL winding down as the Blackhawks and Flyers battle it out in the Stanley Cup Finals the next big even looms right around the corner. The NHL Entry Draft, the annual educated crap shoot of sorts where teams select players they hope will become keystones for their organizations for years to come. If anyone doubted just how important the draft really is all one has to look at is the two teams playing in the finals. The Chicago Blackhawks, were one of the most inept and terribly run franchises in the NHL, playing to dwindling crowds having faded out of mind of most fans in the area just 4 seasons ago. It was about as bad as it gets, they were dysfunctional and in an age where mass marketing is essential to having a healthy franchise the team still lived under the backwards notion that you don’t televise home games as a way of encouraging fans to go to the games. I was at Blackhawks’ games at this time, where you sat in a very cavernous United Center with few fans around you and even as I sported a North Stars sweater which would’ve likely been an express ticket to a physical altercation years ago was met with smiles and handshakes as well as comments of ‘nice jersey.’ Oh how things have changed, but the side effect of being so bad that Chicago finally recieved a dose of foresight from departed GM Dale Tallon and the team committed itself to building through the draft. The team accumulated picks and then started making them count by key selections such as Duncan Keith (54th Overall in 2002), Dustin Byfuglien (245th Overall in 2003), Dave Bolland (32nd Overall in 2004), Brent Seabrook (14th Overall in 2003), Niklas Hjalmarsson (108th Overall in 2005), Troy Brouwer (214th Overall in 2004) and of course the dynamic duo of Jonathan Toews (3rd Overall in 2006) and Patrick Kane (1st Overall in 2007) which was the catalyst that turned the Blackhawks from pathetic pretender to contender. Tallon was later re-assigned for some salary mismanagement (not faxing qualifying offers on time to a bunch of younger players causing Chicago to overspend) as well as a few dubious contracts that will make things very tricky for new GM but long-time Blackhawks’ upper management hand Stan Bowman. Yet right now I doubt many Blackhawks fans are too worried about that.
On the flip side, the Philadelphia Flyers are another team that has built much of its core through the draft. It too took full advantage of one horrendous season to select a future franchise star in James van Riemsdyk (2nd Overall in 2007), but prior 1st round selections have also have yielded big results with Simon Gagne (22nd Overall in 1998), Jeff Carter (11th Overall in 2003), Claude Giroux (22nd Overall in 2006) who was a player that then Flyers General Manager Bobby Clarke could not even remember the talented forwards’ name to say at the draft podium (I wonder if that’s still true now?), and of course team captain Mike Richards (24th Overall in 2003). That list of Flyers’ first rounders could look that much more impressive if the team had kept promising youngsters Luca Sbisa (19th Overall in 2008) and Steve Downie (29th Overall in 2005) before shipping them off to Anaheim and Tampa Bay respectively. Yet the fundamental correlation remains, all good organizations are built through the draft. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Washington, Colorado, Nashville are all quality teams that built the cores of their team by stepping up to the podium and selecting players that would be key fixtures in the years to come. In some cases, the organizations have proven this to be true twice or more in their franchise history as was the case with the Pittsburgh Penguins with their 1980’s era selections of Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr and then later Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin that brought about Stanley Cup Championships proving the importance of the draft was just as true back then as it is right now.
So where does this leave the Minnesota Wild? If you want to take a similar ‘draft history’ approach it gives the organization a harsh does of the reality of poor drafting. An official NHL bust in A.J. Thelen (12th Overall in 2004), a major disappointment in Benoit Pouliot (4th Overall in 2005), another underachiever in James Sheppard (9th Overall in 2006) who had just 2 goals and 6 points in 64 games this season, without much hope coming from Colton Gillies (16th Overall in 2007) and Tyler Cuma (23rd Overall in 2008) both of whom the team traded picks in order to select them. With these 5 blah selections have left the organization woefully short of self-made impact players and have forced the team to look for more expensive options via free agency. 2009 1st round pick, Nick Leddy (16th Overall in 2009) wasn’t exactly tearing it up with the Minnesota Golden Gophers as a freshman and Wild General Manager Chuck Fletcher did not hesitate to deal him before his value ran dry. After the team allowed its most talented drafted player, Marian Gaborik whom the team selected 3rd Overall in its inaugural entry draft walk for nothing the organization has done its fair share of shooting itself in the foot. A few later round selections like Cal Clutterbuck (72nd Overall in 2006), Stephane Veilleux (93rd Overall in 2001), Derek Boogaard (202nd Overall in 2001) have had reasonable results along with 2nd round picks Nick Schultz (33rd Overall in 2000), and Josh Harding (38th Overall in 2002) but most of these picks amount to role players at best. The team did well enough to pick team captain Mikko Koivu (6th Overall in 2001), high-risk high reward defenseman Brent Burns (20th Overall in 2003) and the concussed but skilled Pierre-Marc Bouchard (8th Overall in 2002) who only managed one game this season before a concussion did not even allow him to skate for the rest of the season. That is a lot of failures for a team that avoided spending much money on its roster through most of its formative years and decided to commit itself to building through the draft. It has had more than its fair share of failures who had long testing periods to prove themselves worthy as NHL regulars only to fail miserably in Matt Foy (175th Overall in 2002) and Kyle Wanvig (36th Overall in 2001). It came as a great relief to many Wild fans when the team fired Assistant General Manager Tommy Thompson. Some fans though are still caution whether new Assistant General Manager Brent Flahr is up to the task of turning things around.
With the Wild about to enter its 10th NHL season, it is time the team focuses on reversing this negative trend. The prospect pool for the team is notoriously thin and the rest of the league knows it as the Hockey News‘ annual Future Watch issue noted Minnesota’s diminishing returns while at the same explaining another cause for some of its lack of prospect depth at the draft saying, “The Wild had the eighth-earliest draft position since 2006 (9th, 16th, 23rd and 16th) but the 29th highest report card grade. Its prospects haven’t had the projected success at the NHL level or are not held in high esteem by our judging panel (which was a representation of league scouts), it didn’t help the Wild didn’t have a second round pick in 2009 and just 4 picks in 2008 and no 2nd or 3rd round picks in 2007.” Pretty harsh words from a non-biased entity. I would wish fans who believe the Wild can simply trade itself out of its shortcomings by dealing prospects for picks or key contributors. If other teams do not like what the Wild are selling then it doesn’t really matter you want because you probably will not get anything. So needless to say that makes this year’s draft immensely important to the team. Just to toss out one more caveat to the team’s dilemma is the fact the team will be hosting the 2011 draft, so that will no doubt bring a greater level of visibility to this year’s draft as well. The picks need to start having an impact, if not right away but in the team’s near future instead of being anchors that hold the team down.
So what are the team’s most glaring needs? In this order, this is how I percieve the organization’s biggest 3 needs.
1. Forwards – Preferably skilled, offensively gifted forwards with an emphasis on goal scoring.
2. Defense – Preferably physical, and rugged stay at home defenseman that other teams hate to play against.
3. Goaltenders – There is still an organizational need for another blue chip goaltender to become an eventual backup for Matthew Hackett or perhaps be the future #1 himself.
Over the next week or so I will provide my top 5 candidates at each of these positions keeping the focus on the types of players that fit the paradigms I’ve provided. You may agree or disagree with my choices as it may mean the team may be avoiding taking the “Best Player Available” by taking a player that the organization desperately needs. Although if you believe what Wild beat writer Michael Russo says from the Minneapolis Star Tribune the team said it will look to take the best player available but I think it would seem rather silly to take a defenseman considering the log jam it has at that position.
For each player I will include this year’s stastistics along with the rankings from International Scouting Services, Central Scouting Services and The Hockey News‘ Draft Preview. Anyways, here are the Top 5 forward prospects that I think will be available when the Wild make their selection with the 9th Overall pick.
1. Nino Niederreiter
Left Wing – Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Height: 6’2″ Weight: 203lbs Shoots: Left
CSS Final Ranking: 12th (NA) ISS Final Ranking: 6th The Hockey News‘ ranking: 10th
2009-10 Stats: 65GP 36G 24A = 60pts 68 PIM’s +11
Talent Analysis: Back in 1997, the Edmonton drafted Swiss born Michel Riesen 14th Overall in he became a bit of a cautionary tale for NHL franchises as Riesen played just 12 games for the Oilers recording just a single assist. While it may seem unfair to judge Nino Niederreiter on the deeds of his fellow countryman but no doubt that thought will be in the backs of the minds of the league’s general managers as they ponder whether to select the athletic, gritty forward with good hands. While Switzerland has improved its stock internationally over the last few years with scrappy performances in the Olympics there is a precedent for the nation to produce goaltenders and to a lesser extent defenseman there has been very little to go from in terms of forwards. Why? Swiss players can stay home and make excellent money without having to work for virtually nothing in major junior or the American Hockey League so it is rare to see young players forego that opportunity to make big money. The Wild know this all too well when it selected Julian Sprunger who looked suprisingly effective in the Olympics but the chance to make big money in the Swiss League was too tempting for him and he never signed with the organization. Without question Nino Niederreiter recognized that and decided to show just how dedicated he was to play in the NHL by venturing to North America to play for the Portland Winterhawks of the Western Hockey League. Niederreiter gives you a tremendous combination of grit and skill in a good sized 6’2″ 200+ lbs frame. He uses that big body effectively to protect the puck and never takes a shift off. The Chur, Switzerland-native is a tremendous forechecker, working well in tight spaces and possesses tremendous hockey sense. Niederreiter has a great shot off the rush and is the type of player that can create space for his teammates and is your prototypical power forward. It is for these reasons why I think he would be the most ideal choice for the Wild, the only question is whether another team drafting before Minnesota decides he’s perfect for them too. Bottom Line: His ability to score, forecheck and create offense makes him the perfect pick for Minnesota and Head Coach Todd Richards‘ style of play.
2. Jeffery Skinner
Center – Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
Height: 5’10” Weight: 182lbs Shoots: Left
CSS Final Ranking: 34th (NA) ISS Final Ranking: 9th The Hockey News‘ ranking: 25th
2009-10 Stats: 64GP 50G 40A = 90pts 72 PIM’s +7
Talent Analysis: It is pretty easy to sum up Jeffery Skinner’s game, a pure sniper. While possessing a far slighter frame than Nino Niederreiter, Skinner has a surprisingly strong lower body that makes him tough to knock off the puck and plays well in traffic. The Markham, Ontario-native has wickedly quick release and that was a huge reason he scored 20 goals in the Ontario Hockey League playoffs. Yet his game is not without some notable holes, particularly in his skating. He is not what you would consider to be fast for a player of his size, but he compensates for his lack of speed with good on-ice awareness to find the open areas of the ice. Another area Skinner must improve is in his upper body strength as he struggled at the NHL Scouting combine. This lack of upper body strength is most reflected in his struggles at the faceoff circle, but that may not be that important if the team feels he can be converted to a scoring winger which would help fill a hole in the Wild’s system. Skinner does not shy away from physical play, especially in the corners but he is not a player who would be described as a hitter. Defensively Skinner is average, but that is not as critical for a guy who projects to be a top 6 forward like he does. While Skinner is an effective scorer in his own right, he also posseses superior vision with the puck and is an adept passer making him a nice dual offensive threat. Bottom Line: Skinner may not be as explosive of a skater as Marian Gaborik is but fans will relish his ability to finish and his quick release would be incredibly welcome on a team that already has a dearth of playmaking type forwards. This team sorely needs a sniper and Skinner is about as good as you’ll find in the draft.
3. Emerson Etem
Center – Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Height: 6’0″ Weight: 194lbs Shoots: Right
CSS Final Ranking: 8th (NA) ISS Final Ranking: 18th The Hockey News‘ ranking: 17th
2009-10 Stats: 72GP 37G 28A = 65pts 26 PIM’s +8
Talent Analysis: Continuing a growing trend in the United States of California-born players, Emerson Etem is a terrific example of some of the skill that can be created out of markets were players likely learned the game on inline skates rather than on the ice. Etem has his own Minnesota connection having played his prep hockey at Shattuck-St.Mary’s in Fairbault, Minnesota before joining the U.S. National Development Program. Out of the forwards I have talked about thus far, Etem is far and away the best skater who has terrific speed and the ability to beat opposing defenseman around the outside. Although some scouts note that he is not as effective through the middle of the ice. Etem has a good shot, but showed a knack for scoring clutch goals throughout his season with the Medicine Hat Tigers. One area of Etem’s game that is not talked about as often is ability to play effectively on the penalty kill where he uses his speed effectively to deny time and space. His high energy style and commitment to playing the coaches’ system demonstrate his team-oriented attitude. Like most young players he could stand to improve his strength but few work as hard during a shift as Etem does. For a guy like Todd Richards who loves to use the word compete, Etem is as competitive as it gets. Sometimes described a ‘raw’ prospect, most agree Etem has plenty of upside to his game and feel he will improve. Bottom Line: Emerson Etem is a more complete two-way player who provides the tremendous speed that you want in an up-tempo system. Etem has scoring ability but would not be a liablity defensively making him an intriguing candidate.
4. Nick Bjugstad
Center – Blaine Bengals (USHS-MN)
Height: 6’4″ Weight: 188lbs Shoots: Right
CSS Final Ranking: 13th (NA) ISS Final Ranking: 21st The Hockey News‘ ranking: 9th
2009-10 Stats: 25GP 29G 31A = 60pts 24 PIM’s
Talent Analysis: The last name is one that is familiar to Minnesota hockey fans as the nephew of former Gopher great Scott Bjugstad but Nick is out to show he is he’s more than just a relative of a famous State of Hockey legend. Described in the Hockey News‘ Draft Preview by one scout as a “boy in a man’s body” NHL experts love his NHL-ready frame and after an impressive showing at the Scouting Combine where he did 17-reps at 155lbs in the bench press tied for 2nd most. His incredible strength is why he is considered to possess one of the hardest shots of anyone in this year’s draft. Bjugstad is an adept puckhandler for a player of his size and uses his body well to shield the puck in addition to dishing out hits. One of the knocks on Bjugstad was his performance at this year’s state tournament where he went scoreless and for the most part was contained rather easily. Bjugstad has already committed to the University of Minnesota next fall, but most scouts believe he has tremendous potential and believe he will thrive at the pro level although some remain hesitant to fully endorse him since they watched him play at the high school level which places a level of risk to his selection. For some Wild fans, Bjugstad is a sentimental pick not only for being from Minnesota but also due to the way he performed after being invited to the team’s skill competition this winter. It also doesn’t hurt his notoriety that he was selected as 2010’s Mr. Hockey as the best high school player in the state. Bottom Line: It could be a huge risk for Wild General Manager Chuck Fletcher to select another Minnesota high school player after drafting (and then trading) Nick Leddy last year. Yet with a player possessing the phyiscal tools Bjugstad does he may be too good to pass up.
5. Ryan Johansen
Center – Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Height: 6’2″ Weight: 192lbs Shoots: Right
CSS Final Ranking: 10th (NA) ISS Final Ranking: 8th The Hockey News ranking: 12th
2009-10 Stats: 71GP 25G 44A = 69pts 53 PIM’s +17
Talent Analysis: Back in 2003, the Wild took a chance on a late-bloomer in Brent Burns and it turned out fairly well despite the fact he did not stick as a forward, and two years later Minnesota took a chance on another late bloomer in Benoit Pouliot with the 4th Overall pick. Wild fans are well aware of how that turned out, and with that is the story of Ryan Johansen who sprouted 5 inches in the last year. The Port Moody, British Columbia-native is gangly in appearance with a very slight frame but he also has proven to be an elusive player who is an adept stickhandler using his body to protect the puck effectively. Johansen is very versatile and is effective in both offensive and defensive roles. He is an above average skater, who needs to improve his lateral quickness he is a very effective playmaker. Scouts feel is a player who once he fills out his frame could be a very effective offensive forward in the Eric Staal type mold. His lack of body strength is a glaring area of improvement for Johansen but many feel he could be a tremendous 2nd line center someday. Another common thread passed along by scouts is their feeling that Johansen is very underdeveloped but still managed to put up great points with the Winterhawks is a testament to his excellent potential. Bottom Line: The Wild have complained about not having an effective 2nd line center for years, and Johansen maybe the solution to that problem. A player who could stand to gain strength and shoot the puck more he provides a high level of skill that make him a player with a lot to like in the offensive zone.
That sums up my Top 5 potential selections for the Wild at forward for the 2010 Draft. The next article which will focus on defense will be complete in a few days. In the meantime feel free to leave comments!
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