Each divisional-round favorite won outright for the first time in a decade, setting up a a conference championship slate with the four teams that held top Super Bowl odds in the summer.
One year after Baltimore broke their hearts, CBS executives saw their dreams come true as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady advanced to meet in the AFC title once again. Meanwhile FOX can’t feel too bad about putting Ravens-Steelers 2.0 on display as Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll grow a little more familiar.
The divisional round featured two comfortable wins and another two that grew close only at the very end, but they do provide some important lessons for the NFL conference championship games ahead. If the divisional round’s your miso soup, then here comes the dragon roll.
Brady-Manning IV Could Give Way to Trench Warfare
Knowshon Moreno emerged as one of the league’s better power backs early this year en route to his first 1,000-yard season. LeGarrette Blount, another forgotten veteran running back, emerged much later in the season to rush at a pace well beyond a 1K season over the past few weeks.
The fourth Brady-Manning playoff battle might find a rival in Moreno-Blount. That is, Moreno and Blount leading a herd that includes bruising rookie Montee Ball along with the Pats’ stacked committee of Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen.
The Denver Broncos’ passing output topped their total rush yards by just 230-133 in the divisional round and for the New England Patriots it came out to 185-234 in favor of the run. Each of these teams have the offensive line personnel to generate run push and the late-season development of Blount and Ball gives these offenses a dangerous facet that’s crucial to postseason football.
Not to say Manning or Brady will be neutered, just that this contest could lean more on the run game than your typical Brady-Manning clash of titans.
Aqib Talib Hitting Form in Time for Demaryius Thomas
Thomas’ game-breaking ability across the spectrum from screen to fly will put him firmly in Bill Belichick’s crosshairs. Few players are more of an effective extension of Belichick than a shutdown corner, as Talib has proved since coming over from Tampa last season. As you’ve heard, Belichick likes to take away your favorite toy.
Talib’s injury marked a major turning point in the Ravens’ win over New England in last season’s AFC title and his recent return to health could have the opposite pivotal effect. The veteran corner has managed to play through a hip injury for much of the year but just not well — until this weekend in facing Colts speedster TY Hilton.
This did not constitute a shutout yet did see a much healthier Talib limit Hilton — who cleared 200 yards in the wild-card round — to just two catches into Talib’s coverage in the divisional round.
“We had a good game plan. We let him get behind us two times,” Talib said, via Nick Underhill of MassLive. “One of our main points of emphasis this week is to not let him run through the defense and we let him do it two times; one in man (coverage) and one in zone. I think we did all right. We contained him but we didn’t completely stop him.”
Thomas may have only tallied 54 yards on Sunday but that did lead all Broncos receivers as Manning posted a relatively tame-yet-efficient 230 yards. When Talib and Thomas met in Week 12, Thomas saw six of his nine targets into Talib’s coverage, converting them into three catches for 30 yards and a touchdown.
It will be fun to watch them go at it again.
Niners’ Goal Line D Should Scare Seattle
As if San Fran didn’t already enjoy an embarrassment of riches in the front-seven, now 23-year-old Tony Jerod-Eddie is wreaking havoc in the trenches as well. The undrafted free agent out of Texas A&M began making noise in his second-year with an interception off Matt Schaub during the regular season and made his biggest impact Sunday against Carolina.
Bringing down Cam Newton is always a notable feat, yet that is runner-up to Jerod-Eddie blowing up the Panthers’ interior on one of the San Francisco 49ers’ two crucial goal-line stands, forcing Mike Tolbert airborne and short of the goal line.
It feels odd recalling that San Fran lost at home to the Carolina Panthers earlier this year and even trailed 7-6 to them in the divisional round, before rolling in the second half to a 23-10 win. What turned the tide was the Niners’ ability to stonewall one of the NFL’s more physical offenses at the goal line.
This could be problematic for the Seattle Seahawks, who have relied so much on the magic of Marshawn Lynch against linebackers and gotten so little line push in short-yardage situations. Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell might need to get creative down at the goal lie.
Russell Wilson Can Jump-Start Offense at Any Time
Wilson caught plenty of guff from the Twittersphere during Seattle’s 23-15 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday and that’s plenty fair. Wilson struggled with accuracy and the gusty wet conditions can only excuse so much for the quarterback who plays his home games in the Pacific Northwest.
Then you can point to Wilson barely topping the century mark while Drew Brees managed over 300 yards via air.
At the risk of attaching team wins to late-game quarterback play a bit too much, Wilson does have a knack for pulling the kill-drive from mid-air and that’s been a major factor in them finishing 13-3. The come-from-behind, the go-ahead, and the back-breaker remain in Wilson’s arsenal no matter how poorly he’s played the rest of the game.
More often than not, Wilson can go from throwing a ball four yards behind Golden Tate — then with the game on the line — dropping a 24-yard backshoulder to Doug Baldwin with pinpoint accuracy.
Let’s not forget Wilson winging Seattle to 28 second-half points in the Georgia Dome during last year’s divisional round, sans Percy Harvin. There will be games that the Seahawks’ pass offense struggles but that does not necessarily spell a major weakness for the following week.
Though obviously, the more Harvin the better.
Conference Championship Betting Lines (via FootballLOCKS.com Tuesday morning):
San Francisco and New England covered comfortably last weekend while fellow favorites Seattle and Denver played it very close to the line, in sharp contrast from a dogs’ wild-card weekend. Now we enter the first weekend of the postseason without any team widely getting a touchdown. Hopefully these narrow spreads are mirrored by the play on field.
Broncos favored by 4.5 points hosting Patriots
Seahawks favored by 3.5 points hosting Niners
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