Great…now, under the new rule change, Ravens placekicker Billy Cundiff gets to kick off from the opposing 35 yard line instead of the 30…so much for Cundiff’s long-kick advantage in the past season. Now every kicker and his brother will be able to kick off for an uncontested touchback…UNLESS the Ravens or other teams devise a special new strategy to turn the kickoff into an NBA-style “jump ball”…
The NFL owners just voted to move kickoffs from the 30 to the 35 yard line next season, which means that teams like the Baltimore Ravens might not have to cover a single kickoff this season thanks to the leg of Billy Cundiff… The original proposal did not go through entirely. Touchbacks will remain at the 20 yard line. If anything, this gives kickers even more incentive to blast it out of the end zone. (The two-man kickoff-return blocking wedge will still be allowed…)
So read the headlines out there about the new kickoff rule…
Baltimore Ravens placekicker Billy Cundiff separated himself from every other kicker in the NFL last year with his record-tying 40 touchbacks (next closest was Oakland’s Sebastian Janikowski’s 29).
But the new rule adds 5 yards extra advantage to all of Cundiff’s peers…the idea is to reduce the violence inherent in the kickoff return process, or, in effect, to greatly reduce the chance of car-crash collisions on returns by minimizing the number of actual returns. Suddenly, every kicker in the league is within range of Cundiff’s record-setting performance in 2010.
I get the idea…but has the NFL really thought this through?
Sure, the NFL has just taken away one of the most surefire, fan-pleasing aspects of the game’s modern appeal— the against-all-odds moments of kick returners running the gauntlet and establishing their offensive presence in a game. (Exhibit 1 = Josh Cribbs, Cleveland)…
But not good enough for the owners, who want to not only minimize personal injury and compensation to regular players, but to lock out new innovations in the sport…
Here are the rule changes. Notably, the NFL is deciding to leave touchbacks at the 20 yard line as opposed to bringing it out to the 25 as had been discussed…
-Kickoff moved from 30 to 35 yard line
-Touchbacks stay at the 20 yard line
-Two man wedges remain allowable
-Kickoff coverage units allowed 5 yard running start instead of 10-15 yards
The statistics indicate that, league-wide, the touchback percentage was already increasing. The National Football Post has a nice breakdown of statistics since 2004. Touchback percentage has almost doubled since 2004 as kickers’ legs have gotten stronger. It was 8.48% in 2004 and above 16% the last two seasons. In fact, Billy Cundiff of the Ravens had over half of his kicks result in touchbacks – 40 out of 79. What will that percentage rise to with 5 more yards to boot it out of the endzone? 70%? 80%? Estimates are that the league-wide touchback percentage may rise to over 30%. That means we’ll see the number of touchbacks at least double again.
Randall Simon’s Sausages is a favorite blog that’s on top of this issue…Matt Yoder writes:
“Let’s go inside a game from last season to see how the NFL’s new rule change will affect this year’s games… if there are any. I take you to Week 10’s Thursday Night game between Baltimore and Atlanta in the comfy Georgia Dome. This matchup pitted Baltimore’s Billy Cundiff (#1 in TB% – 50.6%) against Atlanta’s Michael Koenen (#7 in TB% – 26.1%). “
“In all, there were 6 touchbacks out of a possible 10 kickoffs, including touchbacks at the start of the 1st and 2nd half. Here’s the stats for the kickoffs that weren’t touchbacks…
1) M.Koenen kicks 66 yards from ATL 30 to BLT 4.
2) B.Cundiff kicks 77 yards from BLT 25 to ATL -2.
3) M.Koenen kicks 64 yards from ATL 30 to BLT 6.
4) M.Koenen kicks 75 yards from ATL 30 to BLT -5. “
“Notice #2… Cundiff kicked a ball 77 yards!!! He got it into the endzone from his own 25! Imagine what he’ll do from his own 35! He could boot every kickoff in-between the uprights. With the new kickoff rule in effect for this game, it’s fair to say that at least 8 of the 10 kickoffs would be touchbacks. Any kick that is 75 yards or more will fly out of the endzone. Cundiff’s KO average last year of 71.6 yards would see returners begin from 6.6 yards deep in their own endzone. “
“Now, tell me, how many special teams coaches are going to urge returners to run back kicks from over halfway into the endzone? If there are any, they will be fired immediately. 17 kickers last year had average kickoffs of 65 or more yards – placing the average kickoff in the endzone. WIth coaches looking to take advantage of this rule, I would suspect we could see return specialists sacrificed on rosters for kickoff specialists. If that happens, the touchback percentage could climb above 50%. Does that sound appetizing to fans?”
“Now, this rule change from the 30 to the 35 wouldn’t be so outrageous if something was done about touchbacks. But no… touchbacks remain at the 20. Therefore, there is no risk/reward involved in booting it out of the endzone. The advantage lies completely with the kicker. There is simply no tradeoff here for the return team. The only caveat is the rule change regarding coverage units only getting a 5 yard run-up. Perhaps that allows more time for returners to get out of the endzone, but that does little good if balls are flying out of play. Again, the risk/reward of returning a kick from well back in the endzone lies with the kicking team. The field position edge that good kick return teams like Chicago (Devin Hester), Cleveland (Josh Cribbs), Seattle, and the Jets once had now disappears. This is a huge deal!”
“The importance that had been placed on exciting returners like Brad Smith, Devin Hester, and Leon Washington… will now be placed on guys like Billy Cundiff. Yippee!! One of the top special teams players in the league, Josh Cribbs, had this to say from NFL.com…
“‘This rule, I’m thinking they already kick it away from guys like myself and (Chicago’s) Devin Hester,” Cribbs told NFL Network. “But this rule trumps them all. … They’ll start to scout kickers just for touchbacks. Returners like myself will become obsolete. I’ve been on both specturms, so I’m talking as a guy who has played on kickoff coverage and return units.”‘
‘”You’re going to see teams franchising kickers for touchbacks,” Cribbs said. “I really feel that (it’ll be harder for returners), myself included, when I try to get a new contract. You need to be taken seriously on the field, and you won’t get this type of athlete anymore. You make these rule changes, the kick returner becomes obsolete. You have no chance to succeed. And the special-teamer in coverage, then he becomes obsolete, too, and those are guys busting tail to stay in the league.”‘
“Instead of
seeing electrifying returns from men like Cribbs, Hester, and Smith… we’ll see kickers undramatically kick the ball into the endzone. Imagine the hype of the opening kick of the 2011 season… again, if we have games. Then imagine the letdown of seeing touchbacks all around the country. Imagine taking some of the most exciting plays out of the game. Imagine taking some of the most exciting players out of the game. That’s what this rule accomplishes. It’s a complete fail for football fans.”
“Naturally, the NFL will have stronger kickers, more touchbacks, and more boredom. What may be worse, and more hypocritical, is the ridiculous stance of the NFL citing player safety as their top concern. If player safety was really their top concern, why not just take the entire kickoff out of the game??? Just let offenses start at the 20 and forget it! Please! It sounds well and good and noble, but remember the NFL has pushed 18 games since the beginning of the labor negotiations, ignoring cries from players about player safety. They’ve even ignored fans that are against 18 games. Are these rules on kickoffs touting “player safety” nothing more than a negotiating ploy to eventually get the “union” to cave on an 18-game schedule? Is the NFL, in finally taking a stand for player safety, going too far and messing with what football is supposed to be? Time will tell, but it certainly seems like there is something else going on here motivating the decision to take kickoffs out of the game. Even asking that question proves that the lockout infiltrates every fiber of the NFL, including what appears to be on-field rule changes. As a fan, it’s incredibly frustrating. The NFL should be wary. Yes, the NFLis the most popular league in the country by a landslide… but if the lockout drags on, and more decisions are brought down that fans disagree with, that popularity could fall by the wayside. No league is infallible, even the Shield…”
Well said, Matt Yoder. But there’s a slightly more strategic, and more diabolical thought I have in my mind…
Get this—eventually you will have “pop-up” kickoff specialists, whose sole mission is to pooch the kickoff high and lazy so it settles down into the 10-yard line area…just in time for the kicking team’s gunners (WHO NOW ONLY HAVE TO RUN 10 LESS YARDS!) to swarm on the receiver—essentially a “jump ball” situation resulting in a massive increase in fumbles and loose balls similar to an on-sides kick scenario… Oh, what a well-thought rule change!—-
The more things change, the more they stay the same…and more dangerous.
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