When the Cincinnati Bengals host the San Diego Chargers at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday, Jan. 5, at 1:05 p.m. ET, it will be exactly 8,400 days since the team that calls the Queen City home has won a playoff game.
San Diego has had more success, winning two postseason games in 2007 and winning in the Wild Card Round over the Indianapolis Colts via a 23-17 overtime outcome in 2008.
Both franchises as of late have experienced a makeover. For Cincinnati, a third-straight playoff berth simply highlights the simple fact the modernization process of the organization is all but complete. For San Diego, the arrival of coach Mike McCoy, and in turn the career revitalization of quarterback Philip Rivers, has ushered in a new era highlighted by this postseason berth.
San Diego and Cincinnati last clashed in the postseason in January of 1982 in the aptly titled Freezer Bowl at Riverfront Stadium, where the wind chill hit a frigid -59, as ESPN captures:
The last time the Bengals and Chargers faced each other in the playoffs, the wind chill was -59 .. (1/10/82) pic.twitter.com/0m9g0fpJYv #tbt
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 3, 2014
What follows are a few key factors to watch for both sides on Sunday.
Last Time They Met
While a rematch of an epic date in NFL history, Sunday’s contest also acts as a rehash of a Week 13 clash at Qualcomm Stadium that saw Cincinnati escape the West Coast with a 17-10 victory.
Cincinnati imposed its will on the ground with 164 total rushing yards as veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard piled up yards after contact. Rivers was mediocre, tallying a 23-of-37 mark for 252 yards with an interception and touchdown.
San Diego’s porous defense is the main takeaway from the game. The Chargers were unable to find an answer for A.J. Green, who grabbed five receptions for 83 yards and a score. Shifty gadget receiver Andrew Hawkins did major damage with 65 yards on just three receptions.
Cincinnati has continued its strong play for the most part since the win, but it is San Diego that has improved the most since. The Chargers have won four straight since the loss and will get Jarret Johnson and Melvin Ingram back—two key run defenders who missed the first matchup.
There is plenty to learn from the first clash between these two, but plenty has changed as well.
The Misleading Philip Rivers Statistics
Rivers deserves recognition on a national scale for his strong 2013 campaign that should probably net him the Comeback Player of the Year Award.
That said, there are a few statistics making the rounds as we near the playoff game that are impressive at first glance. ESPN has the details:
On the road this season, @Chargers QB Philip Rivers ranks 1st in Comp % (71.5) 2nd in Pass yds (2,496) and 3rd in Pass TD (15).
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 3, 2014
Undoubtedly impressive numbers, but they are worth a deeper dive. Here is a look at the opponents Rivers shredded and the ranks of their pass defenses:
Stats about Rivers on the road are overblown. Pass D’s he faced = PHI (32) TEN (11) OAK (28), JAC (25), WAS (20) MIA (16) KC (25) DEN (27)
— Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) January 3, 2014
The best defense on that list belongs to Tennessee, primarily thanks to rising star Alterraun Verner. Against the Titans, Rivers managed just 184 passing yards and a touchdown in a 20-17 loss.
None of this is to say Rivers will have a bad game, but those thinking he is in for a major day against the NFL’s No. 5 pass defense are in for a rude awakening. Rivers may have a solid outing, especially with veteran corner Terence Newman expected to miss the game (meaning he can pick on Dre Kirkpatrick all day), but it may not be an outing some anticipate based on trends.
The Injury Factor
As hinted, injuries are sure to play a factor in this one.
San Diego is relatively healthy, with only four players listed on the injury report as of Dec. 3, with the worst being hit with a questionable tag.
The same cannot be said for Cincinnati. As Bleacher Report’s Andrea Hangst illustrates, Newman is doubtful for the game, meaning much pressure will once again be placed on Kirkpatrick:
With Terence Newman (knee) doubtful, a huge matchup to watch will be Dre Kirkpatrick vs. Keenan Allen. Huge.
— Andrea Hangst (@FBALL_Andrea) January 3, 2014
Kirkpatrick has notched a few interceptions in recent weeks, but more often than not he has been the focal point of attacks and has suffered mightily in what essentially amounts to his rookie season after missing most of last year due to injury.
The Alabama product sounds ready for the pressure, via ESPN’s Coley Harvey:
It’s just about being more focused this time of the year. I know what it takes to win championships. Just the intensity has to pick up. I’m not a leader, but I’ve got the intensity that I am a leader.
But injury concerns to do not stop there. Both tight ends Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham missed last week’s win over Baltimore. Both are questionable, as is starting center Kyle Cook and defensive end Wallace Gilberry.
The Bengals showed their hand without both starting tight ends last week. At some point, shuffling along the offensive line and a lack of depth on the defensive side will hurt Cincinnati. One has to think San Diego will look to exploit these deficiencies from the opening gun, should the aforementioned players miss the contest.
The Weather Factor
Sunday’s game certainly will not be another rendition of the Freezer Bowl, but Mother Nature will still have her say on how the game is played.
Jay Morrison of the Dayton Daily News has the scoop:
Again, not Freezer Bowl material, but not ideal weather either for #Bengals vs. #Chargers. pic.twitter.com/fnJknF96HY
— Jay Morrison (@JayMorrisonCMG) January 1, 2014
This set of uncontrollable circumstances favors Cincinnati. With the passing attack grounded in a slick environment, the Bengals will be able to comfortably ride their complementary duo in the backfield for most of the game.
While not the end of the world, the forecast at first glance does not do the visitors any favors.
Outlook
San Diego is one of the NFL’s hottest teams thanks to its streak of four wins and victories in that span over teams like the 13-3 Denver Broncos and 11-5 Kansas City Chiefs.
But the Wild Card Round looks to be a dose of hard reality for the Chargers. Rivers and Co. are just 4-4 on the road this year and must travel across the country for an early kickoff. Most importantly, the Chargers are tasked with going to Paul Brown Stadium, where the Bengals are 8-0 on the year and have scored more than 40 points in four of their last five.
Perhaps most telling of all is what the Bengals were able to do last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Andy Dalton, who has done more than enough to prove he is a viable long-term option, threw four interceptions.
Cincinnati still won comfortably, 34-17.
Overall, the Bengals appear a heavy favorite at home, but there is certainly the chance for an upset should the Chargers properly diagnose the Cincinnati attack and exploit favorable matchups injuries have provided.
Regardless of how it turns out, both teams are hot and more than capable of pulling off a Baltimore-esque run once out of the Wild Card Round.
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