The 2014 NFL playoffs kick off with an intriguing matchup of unlikely Super Bowl hopefuls.
The Colts and Chiefs have been on a collision course for the better part of the last month. While neither team was able to improve its playoff seeding over the closing weeks, both squads have been trying to position themselves for a deep playoff run.
Indianapolis has been tightening up their defense and opening up the offense, while the Chiefs were able to rest starters in Week 17 in preparation for a deep postseason run.
Indianapolis manhandled the Chiefs in Kansas City just two weeks ago. That result won’t mean anything to either team in the rematch, but the lessons both teams took away from the game might.
Chiefs Offense Versus Colts Defense
Kansas City had to be disappointed with their performance against Indianapolis in the regular season. After opening the game with a touchdown, the Chiefs’ offense stumbled against the Colts in large part because they got away from the run game.
On the season, the Chiefs had the second-most efficient run game in the NFL according to the Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Jamaal Charles should be a natural advantage for K.C., given that he’s going up against the No.22-ranked run defense.
While Charles opened the game with two carries for 37 yards on the first drive, he saw only 11 more touches on the ground the rest of the day. Those carries went for 69 yards, so success was not the issue. Even while the Chiefs lead in the game midway through the second quarter, Charles carried just four times for 16 yards. After they fell behind, he only had seven runs.
The Chiefs struggled with ball security as linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Robert Mathis wreaked havoc. Freeman won AFC Defensive Player of the Week with a tour de force performance that included a sack, a fumble recovery, a forced fumble (all three on different plays) and an interception. Fourteen of the Colts’ 23 points came off of turnovers.
Alex Smith will have to secure the ball and be willing to take small chunks of yardage against the Colts. Indy will press his receivers with man coverage, and Smith won’t have time to wait for plays to materialize downfield. Indy sacked him five times in the first matchup with six different players accounting for at least a half sack.
The Colts want to keep this game in the low 20s. The Colts were 7-1 when their opponent scored under 24 points. If Andy Reid wants to grind it out with Charles and play a low-scoring game, Chuck Pagano will be happy to let him.
Colts Offense Versus Chiefs Defense
There are two distinct identities for the Colts offense, and Pep Hamilton won’t hesitate to show both even within the same drive as he did in the first matchup with the Chiefs.
The Colts are built around a smash-mouth run game philosophy that heavily features fullback Stanley Havili. Indy will hike up in the I-formation and try to punish opposing defenses with a steady dose of Donald Brown and Trent Richardson. This is how they opened the game against the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Their attempts to establish the run were not successful, however, and it took two abortive drives in which the Colts went three-and-out twice before they switched to their no-huddle spread look. This package is characterized by three- and four-wide formations and seeks to press the tempo and force the defense into mismatches. It is optimal for a cerebral quarterback like Andrew Luck.
Hamilton has shown more willingness to use this package recently, utilizing it to great success in each of the last four games. Too often, Indianapolis employs it only after trailing in games. This was the case against the Chiefs. When there is urgency to score, the Colts change tactics and become aggressive.
The loss of Reggie Wayne in midseason stalled the development of the quick-strike version of the Colts. As Luck has gained comfort with his young receiving corps, his own play has improved. Over the final four games of the season, his passer rating jumped to nearly 100 as he threw eight touchdowns against a single interception.
The Chiefs have a strong pass defense anchored by pass-rushing linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Houston has battled a dislocated elbow and missed the first game against the Colts. While Indianapolis doesn’t have the strongest offensive line, tackles Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherlius are its most reliable players. The Chiefs didn’t get to Luck in the first meeting, but will have to pressure him if they want to disrupt the fast-paced version of the Indy attack.
The Colts didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in frigid Arrowhead Stadium in their victory. Both Indy touchdowns came on short fields and big plays by Brown. A forgotten man in training camp, injuries forced him into the starting lineup, and he has responded with home-run hitting ability from the backfield. One pass and one run from him accounted for 84 of 232 yards the Colts gained on the day.
That’s good news for the Chiefs who only need to eliminate a couple of mistakes to feel good about their chances to slow the Colts.
X-Factor: Pat McAfee, Punter
Yes, the Colts’ punter and kick off specialist could well be the deciding player in this game.
The biggest advantage for the Chiefs is their special teams unit. The Chiefs have the best special teams in football, and are excellent at running back kicks and punts. This showed in the first match up as KC rang up returns of 25 (on a punt), 30, 48 and 33 yards.
McAfee will have the advantage of kicking indoors, and his touchback rate stands at 53% at home.
In what promises to be a low-scoring game, Dexter McCluster will need to be a weapon for the Chiefs on punts and kickoffs, but if McAfee does his job, he’ll never get the chance to return anything.
Should he leave kickoffs in the field of play, however, McCluster will likely punish Indy with big returns again.
Outlook
The Chiefs are not playing like the team that opened the year 9-0. They have been inconsistent and limped home losing five of their last seven games, beating only Washington and Oakland. They managed just one win over a team with a winning record all season.
Indianapolis is an average team on paper. They don’t do any one thing well or poorly, and they’ve spent most of the year hiding Andrew Luck, their best weapon, by asking him to throw short passes in order compensate for line and receiver problems.
Indy may not be the scariest team in the AFC field, but there’s no denying that Pagano has done a masterful job getting his Colts up for big games. Indy boasts three signature wins over arguably the three best teams in football (Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco).
Given Indy’s propensity to play well in spotlight games, the Chiefs’ struggles of late and the Colts’ advantage at the quarterback position, look for Indianapolis to win a low-scoring affair.
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